-=-=-=-=-=-=-Severe Weather Safety Tips Click Here-=-=-=-=-=- What is UTC time? Click here to find out.... Mouseover to pause!......Kentucky Short-term forecast... Western KY .TONIGHT...Cloudy. A 50 percent chance of showers after midnight. Lows in the mid 50s. South winds around 10 mph. Central KY .TONIGHT...Partly cloudy in the evening, then cloudy with numerous showers after midnight. Lows in the mid 40s. Temperatures rising into the 50s after midnight. South winds 5 to 15 mph. Chance of showers 70 percent. Eastern KY .TONIGHT...Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming cloudy. A slight chance of rain showers in the evening, then rain showers likely late. Patchy fog near dawn. Lows in the upper 30s in the valleys and in the upper 40s on the ridges. Light winds. Chance of rain 70 percent. +_+_+_+_+_+_+_+_+_ ....Here's the Central Kentucky 7-day hazardous weather outlook from the National Weather Service... From the UK ag weather center. Updated: 2 AM Sun Feb 18 2018 this hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central indiana and central kentucky. .day one...today and tonight. no hazardous weather is expected at this time. .days two through seven...monday through saturday. several rounds of rainfall are likely mid week onward across southern indiana and central kentucky. the axis of heaviest rainfall looks to be across southern indiana and west central kentucky where in excess of 2 inches are possible. with soils saturated and area streams and rivers running high, additional flooding is likely where the heaviest rainfall falls. .spotter information statement... spotter activation is not anticipated at this time. This hazardous forecast is provided by The National Weather Service. ...The mission of the UK Agricultural Weather Program/Center is to provide educational resources through the development of agricultural weather products and services that minimize weather surprise to Kentucky residents relative to their agricultural needs... Detailed forecast information is available in your Precision Ag Weather forecast here... -=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- Long-range outlooks here.
Sun Feb 18 19:02:59 EST 2018
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For the forecasted weather conditions in Kentucky this coming week, click here. All Ky summaries here, Campus hourly forecast graph Forecast graphic: PAH, LEX JKL



 Across the Commonwealth...
Western KY .TONIGHT...Cloudy. A 50 percent chance of showers after midnight. Lows in the mid 50s. South winds around 10 mph. Central KY .TONIGHT...Partly cloudy in the evening, then cloudy with numerous showers after midnight. Lows in the mid 40s. Temperatures rising into the 50s after midnight. South winds 5 to 15 mph. Chance of showers 70 percent. Eastern KY .TONIGHT...Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming cloudy. A slight chance of rain showers in the evening, then rain showers likely late. Patchy fog near dawn. Lows in the upper 30s in the valleys and in the upper 40s on the ridges. Light winds. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Kentucky
Based on observations at 700pm EST, Sunday February 18, 2018

Across Kentucky...temperatures are near 53 degrees west, near 48 degrees central, and near 49 degrees east. Current sky conditions are cloudy west, fair central, and fair east. In the west, relative humidity is near 46%, and the dew point is near 33 degrees. In the central part of the state, relative humidity is near 51%, and the dew point is near 31 degrees. In the east, relative humidity is near 48%, and the dew point is near 30 degrees. Current drying conditions are good west, fair central, and good east. Winds are from the south at 8 mph west, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the east at 5 mph central, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are variable at 3 mph east, where conditions are favorable for spraying. The livestock cold stress index is in the no stress category west, no stress category central, and no stress category east. Based on current available observations, the highest temperature is 54 degrees at Hopkinsville. The lowest temperature is 43 degrees at Covington. Click here for the entire list of ag. weather observations across Kentucky.

  
Updated Sunday Evening, February 18, 2018

...Near 80's By Tuesday!!! Second Half Looks Very Wet But Warm ...

Rain will move in late tonight and into Monday morning with lows in the mid 40s to low 50s tonight. Temperatures will hit the 70s Monday and will make a run for 80 degrees on Tuesday! The second half of the week looks quite wet, but still warm. Beginning on Monday and extending into next weekend, the state will see a prolonged period of rainfall, heavy at times, especially west.

Several rounds of rainfall are likely mid week onward across Kentucky. The axis of heaviest rainfall looks to be across western Kentucky where in excess of 3+ inches are possible. With soils saturated and area streams and rivers running high, additional flooding is likely where the heaviest rainfall occurs.


Kentucky Weather Forecast

Western KY:
Central KY:
Eastern KY:

Specific and detailed farm-by-farm weather forecast information is available in your Point Ag Forecast. New County Ag Weather Page, Current Conditions:Kentucky
, U.S.
Across the Commonwealth for the next week...

Kentucky Medium & Long Range Outlook:

KENTUCKY --------------------------------------------- 6 TO 10 DAY 8 TO 14 DAY 30 DAY 90 DAY FEB 24-FEB 28 FEB 26-MAR 4 MAR MAR-MAY ----------- ----------- -------- --------- Temperature: Above Above Normal Above Precipitation: Above Above Above Above .... Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy
Click here for the outlook maps.

 


Weather Story & Fire Outlook

LMK

	
JKL

	
   

Zones Forecasts

PAH

	
Sun Feb 18 16:38:08 EST 2018

McCracken-
Including the city of Paducah
337 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

.TONIGHT...Cloudy. A 50 percent chance of showers after midnight.
Lows in the mid 50s. South winds around 10 mph. 
.WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of
showers. Highs in the lower 70s. South winds 10 to 20 mph. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 60s. South winds
around 15 mph with gusts to around 30 mph. 
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers.
Highs in the upper 70s. South winds around 15 mph with gusts to
around 30 mph. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers in the
evening, then showers likely after midnight. Lows around 50.
South winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY...Showers. Highs in the mid 50s. Chance of
precipitation 90 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Rain showers. Lows in the upper 30s. Chance of
precipitation 80 percent. 
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of rain
showers. Highs in the lower 50s. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain in the evening,
then rain likely after midnight. Lows in the mid 40s. Chance of
precipitation 70 percent. 
.FRIDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the lower 60s. Chance of
precipitation 70 percent. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Showers and a chance of thunderstorms. Lows in
the lower 50s. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. 
.SATURDAY...Showers likely and a chance of thunderstorms. Highs
in the mid 60s. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Showers likely and a chance of
thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers and
thunderstorms after midnight. Lows in the upper 40s. Chance of
precipitation 70 percent. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. A 30 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the morning. Highs in the upper 50s. 


LMK

	
Sun Feb 18 18:53:56 EST 2018

Fayette-
Including the city of Lexington
653 PM EST Sun Feb 18 2018

.TONIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers after midnight. Lows
in the mid 40s. Temperatures rising into the 50s after midnight.
South winds 5 to 15 mph. Chance of showers 60 percent. 
.WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY...Warmer. Mostly cloudy with scattered
showers. Highs in the lower 70s. South winds 10 to 20 mph with
higher gusts. Chance of showers 40 percent. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 60s. South winds
10 to 15 mph. 
.TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 70s. South winds
10 to 20 mph. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 60s. South
winds 10 to 15 mph. 
.WEDNESDAY...Showers likely and slight chance of thunderstorms.
Highs around 70. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Showers and slight chance of thunderstorms.
Lows in the mid 40s. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent. 
.THURSDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the mid 50s. Chance of
showers 60 percent. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the upper 40s. 
.FRIDAY...Cloudy with showers likely and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 60s. Chance of precipitation
60 percent. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the mid 50s. Chance of
showers 70 percent. 
.SATURDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the mid 60s. Chance of
showers 70 percent. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the upper 40s. Chance
of showers 70 percent. 
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers.
Highs around 60. 

    
JKL

	Sun Feb 18 15:27:55 EST 2018

Breathitt-
Including the city of Jackson
327 PM EST Sun Feb 18 2018

.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming cloudy. A
slight chance of rain showers in the evening, then rain showers
likely late. Patchy fog near dawn. Lows in the upper 30s in the
valleys and in the upper 40s on the ridges. Light winds. Chance
of rain 70 percent. 
.WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY...Warm. Mostly cloudy. A 20 percent chance
of showers early. Patchy fog early. Highs in the lower 70s. South
winds around 10 mph. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows in the lower 50s
in the valleys and around 60 on the ridges. Light winds. 
.TUESDAY...Hot. Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 80s. South winds
around 10 mph. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 50s in the
valleys and in the lower 60s on the ridges. Light winds. 
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and a slight
chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 70s. Chance of rain
50 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Showers. Lows in the lower 50s. Chance of rain
90 percent. 
.THURSDAY...Showers. Highs in the upper 50s. Chance of rain
90 percent. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the lower 50s. 
.FRIDAY...Cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers. Highs in
the lower 70s. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers. Lows
in the upper 50s. 
.SATURDAY...Cloudy with showers likely. Highs around 70. Chance
of rain 60 percent. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Showers. Lows in the lower 50s. Chance of rain
80 percent. 
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers.
Highs in the mid 60s. 

   
 

Weather Summaries

LMK

	
Error Openning File: [ /ldmdata/discussions/AWUS83.KLMK ]


JKL

	
Error Openning File: [ /ldmdata/discussions/AWUS83.KJKL ]
     
PAH

	Error Openning File: [ /ldmdata/discussions/AWUS83.KPAH ]
   
 


Weather Discussions

LMK

	

692 
FXUS63 KLMK 182348
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
648 PM EST Sun Feb 18 2018

...Updated Forecast and Aviation Discussions...

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 645 PM EST Sun Feb 18 2018

Consensus of short-term guidance is focusing on our southern KY 
counties for the first wave of precip chances tonight, then a 
transition to better chances in southern IN and north central KY by 
daybreak. Have started to trend the forecast in this direction, and 
will continue to monitor tweaks over the next few hours. These still 
are expected to be fairly light rain showers. More noticeable will 
be the winds picking up from the south behind the front. These winds 
will bring much warmer temperatures, with readings by daybreak 
around 60...one of those winter nights where the coldest readings 
occur in the evening and then steadily rise.

&&

.Short Term...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 330 PM EST Sun Feb 18 2018

Progressive high pressure was centered near the Mid-Atlantic coast 
this afternoon, and sfc winds were out of the southeast. 
Temperatures have risen into the low to mid 50s thus far under 
plenty of sun today. Coverage of cirrus will continue to increase 
out of the WSW this afternoon and evening. 

Low temperatures will likely occur between 00-05z tonight, just 
before scattered precip and thicker cloud cover lift north into the 
region. A warm front will lift through the region this evening and 
overnight, bringing some light rain chances and rising temperatures 
after midnight. Temperatures likely won't drop below the mid 40s to 
low 50s late this evening. 

Hi-res models suggest an area of showers is likely to move ENE 
across areas south of the WK/BG parkways in the 03-06z time frame. 
Scattered to numerous showers will then move north through northern 
KY and southern IN between 06-15z. The rain won't last all that long 
in any one spot, and amounts will be limited to 0.15 inches or less. 
The rest of Monday will feature mainly dry weather, with heavier 
showers well to our north. 

Dry conditions and a stout southerly breeze will boost afternoon 
highs into the low to mid 70s. Daily record highs could be in 
jeopardy at the primary climate stations. Gusts to 25-30 mph are 
likely out of the south. Monday night will remain breezy and very 
mild by February standards. Lows in the low to mid 60s are forecast.

.Long Term...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 345 PM EST Sun Feb 18 2018

...Significant Rainfall Possible Later This Week...

A highly anomalous weather pattern is still poised to set up across 
the lower Ohio Valley this week bringing threats for heavy rain, 
river flooding, and potentially record warm temperatures to parts of 
Kentucky and southern Indiana. 

The long term portion of the forecast will feature a strong upper 
level ridge over the southwestern Atlantic. This will be a very 
persistent feature, along with a continuously reinforcing Western 
U.S. trough. At this time, Tuesday still looks to be a dry, warm, 
and windy day. An axis of heavy rainfall will likely set up across 
parts of Missouri and Illinois, where the robust LLJ/moisture 
transport will be located. The latest guidance has eased off low-
level thicknesses and temps just a tad, but continuing to feature 
highs around 80. Gusts over 30 mph are likely Tuesday afternoon.

Beginning early Wednesday, the chance for rainfall ramps back up as 
the front sags toward the Ohio River. The heavy rainfall potential 
will stay north of the Ohio River through 12z Wednesday, with 
widespread moderate to heavy rainfall likely during the day into 
Wednesday night. 1 to 2 inches of rain are possible through 12z 
Thursday. This will result in additional rises on smaller creeks and 
certainly prolong the rise on the main stem of the Ohio. Minor 
flooding is likely at multiple river forecast points this week, and 
moderate flooding is possible. 

From Thursday onward, confidence is only medium. But the latest 
suite of model guidance features a pattern that could dump copious 
amounts of rainfall across the forecast area. The risk for flooding 
certainly increases Thursday into the weekend. A stationary boundary 
waffling over the OH/TN valleys will be the focus for multiple 
rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall. The latest GEFS mean features 
3 to 4 inches of rainfall through Saturday. There is some potential 
for amounts over 4 inches, particularly west of I-65 and across 
southern Indiana. Folks should stay abreast of the latest rainfall 
and river forecasts through the coming week.

&&

.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 645 PM EST Sun Feb 18 2018

Busy forecast period, with a warm front forecast to cross the region 
tonight, along with some low-level energy providing stronger winds 
just above the surface. With the frontal passage, expect a brief 
period of rains followed by lower ceilings. Winds will gust some, 
but higher gusts are expected with better mixing through Monday 
morning and afternoon. Ceilings will rise slowly through the day.

&&

.Hydrology...
Issued at 200 PM EST Sun Feb 18 2018

Minor flooding is already occurring on the Ohio River at Tell City 
as well as the Rolling Fork River near Boston. The Ohio River is 
also forecast to reach minor flood stage at McAlpine Upper/Lower by 
midweek. A Flood Warning is also in effect for the Ohio River at 
Cannelton Lock and Dam. 

In general, many other river forecast points in southern Indiana and 
central Kentucky are forecast to go into minor flood. Depending on 
the location of the heaviest rainfall later this week, some rivers 
could reach moderate flood stage. Confidence in minor flooding is 
high, and confidence in moderate flooding is medium. 

The main risk for heavy rainfall across southern Indiana and central 
Kentucky will be from Wednesday into next weekend.
Multiple rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall are possible in this 
time frame. Rainfall amounts exceeding 3 inches are possible, with 
higher totals possible west of I-65 and across southern Indiana. 
This would exacerbate flooding problems in low-lying areas and near 
rivers and creeks. Stay tuned to the latest rainfall and river 
forecasts in the coming days.

&&

.Climate...
Issued at 230 AM EST Sun Feb 18 2018

Record warm temperatures are possible Monday and Tuesday across 
central Kentucky. Below are the daily records for 2/19 and 2/20 and 
the all-time February high temperature records, which may be in 
jeopardy for some locations.   
      
        Mon 2/19        Tues 2/20       Feb All-Time 
SDF     74 (1939)       76 (2016)       81 (2/24/2017)
LEX     75 (1939)       72 (2016*)      80 (2/23/1996)
BWG     73 (1994*)      76 (2017)       83 (2/28/1918)
FFT     75 (1939)       73 (2016)       80 (2/24/2017 & 2/10/1932)  

* and previous years

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

Update...RJS
Short Term...EBW
Long Term...EBW
Aviation...RJS
Hydrology...EBW
Climate...ZT


JKL

	

184 
FXUS63 KJKL 182114
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
414 PM EST Sun Feb 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 400 PM EST SUN FEB 18 2018

At mid and upper levels, a ridge was centered south and southeast
of Bermuda with a trough over much of the western to central
Conus. A series of shortwaves were moving from the Rockies into
the Plains while a closed low was moving through the Northwest
Conus. An area of low pressure was moving across the upper MS
Valley with a stronger sfc low over eastern CO/western KY.
Meanwhile over the east, high pressure was centered to the east 
and northeast of the area while a warm front extended through the
Gulf Coast states and then west and northwest into the Plains.
Some mainly high clouds are working across the region with thicker
high clouds and some low and mid clouds over the MS Valley. 

Surface high pressure will depart to the north and east with mid
level heights expected to rise along the eastern seaboard tonight
and into Monday. The initial surface low now over southwest MN
should track into WI and Lake Superior and then on into Ontario
and weaken while a surface low now over CO and KS tracks across
the Central Plains and into the MS Valley as a couple of
shortwaves move through the southwest flow between ridging off 
the southeast coast and troughing over the west. A warm front 
should develop over or move into the area tonight and lift north 
of the area on Monday. Southerly flow should transport deeper 
moisture into the region with isentropic lift. PW initially in 
the quarter to one half of an inch range should reach in excess of
one inch by dawn. Behind the boundary on Monday, the region will 
get into the warm sector with shower chances diminishing. Further 
west, an upper low/shortwave should track south over the western 
Conus tonight and then begin to move east across the Intermountain
west and into the Monday to Monday night period. The southwest to
south southwest flow aloft should keep the baroclinic zone well 
to the west and northwest of the area through the end of the 
period. Meanwhile, the mid and upper ridge should build back into 
the southeast with rising heights and surface high pressure 
increasing across the southeast.

As for temperatures, there should be a window of opportunity for
eastern valleys to decouple this evening and make a run at the 
upper 30s, before clouds thicken and lower around or just after
midnight. Showers should also move into the area or develop
shortly after as moisture increases, especially aloft rather
dramatically and insentropic lift increases as southwest low level
jet increases. This should be a low qpf event with most locations
measuring. The increase in winds aloft may also lead to increased
winds above 2000 or 2500 feet with gusts on the order of 30 to 35
mph possible overnight into early on Monday.

Well above normal temperatures are expected on Monday and Monday
night. Record highs on Monday may be broken at JKL and LOZ as
temperatures should reach the lower to perhaps mid 70s in many
locations. A small ridge/valley split could occur on Monday night
if clouds were to thin for a while. However, lows will be very 
mild for February likely not falling below 50 in all locations.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 245 PM EST SUN FEB 18 2018

An anomalous ridge will remain anchored over the eastern US at 
the start of the period. Downsloping southerly flow, combined with
3 to 4 standard deviations above normal height anomalies will 
allow for a very warm day on Tuesday. Afternoon highs will be 
nearly 30 degrees above normal with readings topping out around 80
degrees. This will clearly be good enough for daily records, and 
will threaten our all time February high temperature records. 

While we are enjoying the warmth on Tuesday, a baroclinic zone
will set up over the western Ohio river valley, focusing very 
heavy rain across that region. This boundary will eventually be 
pivoted eastward as a shortwave pushes northeast across the area 
on Wednesday. Models continue to slow down the precipitation 
chances, but still looks like a decent chance activity could reach
us by late Wednesday. If nothing else, a little weakness in the 
heights could allow a few showers or storms to pop up on 
Wednesday, especially in our western zones. For the first time in 
quite a long time, LI's are actually below zero Wednesday 
afternoon, so a few storms certainly are possible if enough 
instability can develop. The main axis of precipitation will shift
into our area Wednesday night with the highest rain chances 
occurring at this time. 

Uncertainty increases greatly as we go into Thursday and beyond as
it looks like we may have a few more rounds of rain targeting the
Ohio river valley late in the week into the following weekend. At
this point, looks like the best rain chances may come Friday and
Saturday. Models show the baroclinic zone finally exiting as a
cold front late next weekend allowing drier conditions to finally
return late in the weekend or early into the following week. 

Given the tremendous uncertainty with rainfall amounts and 
timing, opted to hold off on any ESF or mention in the HWO at this
time with regards to heavy rain. With 3 to 4 days of dry weather 
expected going into the next chances of rain, that may be enough 
time to allow rivers to recede and ground to dry out a tad. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EST SUN FEB 18 2018

VFR conditions will prevail across the region through 5Z as high
pressure departs to the east. A warm front will approach the area
this evening and move north of the area during the last 6 hours 
of the period. High clouds will increase during the first 6 to 9 
hours of the period with mid and low level moisture increasing 
from around 3Z. Clouds will move into the area or develop at those
levels shortly thereafter with ceilings decreasing to MVFR in the
southwest near KSME around 6Z. This will gradually spread north 
and east with at least 3 to 5 hours of MVFR CIGS and VIS 
anticipated in rain showers at all locations through 12Z. 
Ceilings should increase back to VFR from the south and southeast 
as the warm front lifts north of the area during the last 6 hours 
of the period. Winds should be generally 10kt or less through the 
period, with higher sustained speeds and gusts above 2500 feet 
near the VA border.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JP

      
PAH

	
652 
FXUS63 KPAH 182127
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
327 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 326 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

Bottom line is that we will truly get into the warm sector in the
short term, with record warmth both during the day and at night.

South to southwesterly flow will increase at all levels tonight 
into Monday. This could aid in supporting scattered to numerous
warm advection showers during the period. Should not be much of 
an impact though. The bigger story will be the rise in temps later
tonight through Monday. Despite the possible considerable cloud 
cover much of the day, temps will likely make it to near or above 
70 again over a good portion of the region. In fact, some record 
highs may fall or be challenged. Lows will not fall off too much 
Monday night, and will likely shatter all record high minimum 
temperatures for the night across the region. 

The unusually strong upper level high pressure just off the
southeast U.S. coast will actually try yo flex its muscle westward
later Monday into Tuesday. This not only will reduce the number of
showers across the forecast area, but could also serve to push 
temperatures even higher than Monday to record levels once again.
Would not be surprised to see some locations flirt with 80
degrees on Tuesday afternoon. 

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 326 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

An anomalously strong mid/upper level high near Bermuda will be in 
place by midweek. Meanwhile, the CONUS will be under an amplified 
mid/upper level longwave pattern, with a trof in the west, opposite 
the strong Bermuda high. As a result, the PAH forecast area will be 
under warm deep moist southwesterly flow during this time. The 
medium range models are in reasonably good agreement depicting 
shortwave energy moving through the mean trof, and the southeastward 
movement of a surface cold front through our region early Wed. The 
timing of the front should limit peak afternoon temps to the 40s 
over southeastern MO/southern IL, and to the 50s/60s in southwestern 
IN/western KY. The front is progged to stay southeast of the PAH 
forecast area through midweek.

The main concern is with the warm conveyor belt pattern in place, 
which will be conducive to copious rainfall amounts. There may be 
enough instability and lift for limited tstm development near the 
frontal boundary, mainly late Tue evening over the northwestern 
third of the region. WPC now has us currently in a moderate risk of 
excessive rainfall over western parts of southeastern MO, and a 
slight risk west of the MS River and northwest of the OH River. Much 
of southeastern MO may have 1 inch per hour rainfall rates early Wed 
near and perhaps just behind the wedge of the southeastward-moving 
colder air. For most of the region, the best QPF (a half inch to an 
inch per 6 hours) will be during the daylight hours Wed, after which 
the southeastern CONUS upper ridge will begin to rebuild 
temporarily, leading to a gradual diminishing of pcpn from the 
northwest Wed night. Forecast temp profiles suggest some icing is 
possible in the higher elevations of the Ozark Foothills late Wed 
night.

The cold front which should lie to the south of the region
Thursday will be pushed back north across the forecast area later
Thursday night into Friday. With strong, rich southwesterly flow 
aloft, showers and even isolated thunderstorms will be likely 
along the front. Some of the rainfall could be quite significant 
again, which would exacerbate any on-going flooding of rivers, 
and may even lead to new flood watches in some areas. The front 
should then stall out somewhere near or just north of the region 
on Saturday. How far the front makes it to the north will likely 
determine how much of a lull we get, if any, in the heavy rain 
potential next weekend. 

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 958 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

Expect VFR conditions today into the evening hours. Some ifr 
conditions are likely overnight, along with scattered showers. 
Winds will increase from the south tonight. Low level wind shear 
is expected overnight due to winds from 40 to 50 kt at 2k feet. 
Southerly surface winds will then increase more during the day 
Monday, with some gusts 20 to 30 kts becoming likely by 18z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...DB/GM
AVIATION...GM

     
 

Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Kentucky
Based on observations at 700pm EST, Sunday February 18, 2018

Across Kentucky...temperatures are near 53 degrees west, near 48 degrees central, and near 49 degrees east. Current sky conditions are cloudy west, fair central, and fair east. In the west, relative humidity is near 46%, and the dew point is near 33 degrees. In the central part of the state, relative humidity is near 51%, and the dew point is near 31 degrees. In the east, relative humidity is near 48%, and the dew point is near 30 degrees. Current drying conditions are good west, fair central, and good east. Winds are from the south at 8 mph west, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the east at 5 mph central, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are variable at 3 mph east, where conditions are favorable for spraying. The livestock cold stress index is in the no stress category west, no stress category central, and no stress category east. Based on current available observations, the highest temperature is 54 degrees at Hopkinsville. The lowest temperature is 43 degrees at Covington. Click here for the entire list of ag. weather observations across Kentucky.

  
Updated Sunday Evening, February 18, 2018

...Near 80's By Tuesday!!! Second Half Looks Very Wet But Warm ...

Rain will move in late tonight and into Monday morning with lows in the mid 40s to low 50s tonight. Temperatures will hit the 70s Monday and will make a run for 80 degrees on Tuesday! The second half of the week looks quite wet, but still warm. Beginning on Monday and extending into next weekend, the state will see a prolonged period of rainfall, heavy at times, especially west.

Several rounds of rainfall are likely mid week onward across Kentucky. The axis of heaviest rainfall looks to be across western Kentucky where in excess of 3+ inches are possible. With soils saturated and area streams and rivers running high, additional flooding is likely where the heaviest rainfall occurs.


Kentucky Weather Forecast

Western KY:
Central KY:
Eastern KY:

Specific and detailed farm-by-farm weather forecast information is available in your Point Ag Forecast. New County Ag Weather Page, Current Conditions:Kentucky
, U.S.
Across the Commonwealth for the next week...

Kentucky Medium & Long Range Outlook:

KENTUCKY --------------------------------------------- 6 TO 10 DAY 8 TO 14 DAY 30 DAY 90 DAY FEB 24-FEB 28 FEB 26-MAR 4 MAR MAR-MAY ----------- ----------- -------- --------- Temperature: Above Above Normal Above Precipitation: Above Above Above Above .... Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy
Click here for the outlook maps.

 


Click here for the PAH,LEX & JKL point ag cast.


ISSUED AT 23:00 UTC ON SUNDAY FEB 18 2018
DAY SUNDAY MONDAY
EDT 3HR 8P 9P 10P 11P MIDN 1A 2A 3A 4A 5A 6A 7A 8A 9A 10A 11A NOON 1P 2P 3P 4P 5P 6P 7P
MAX/MIN 52° -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 47° -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 72°
TEMP 47° 47° 47° 47° 49° 49° 52° 54° 56° 56° 58° 59° 59° 61° 63° 63° 67° 68° 72° 72° 72° 72° 70° 68°
SKY COVER 30% 33% 36% 39% 58% 76% 94% 94% 95% 95% 94% 93% 92% 92% 91% 90% 89% 89% 88% 86% 84% 82% 79% 77%
Clouds
DEW PT 34° 34° 34° 34° 36° 38° 40° 43° 45° 47° 49° 50° 52° 52° 54° 54° 56° 56° 56° 56° 56° 56° 56° 56°
RH 60% 62% 62% 62% 60% 63% 63% 66% 66% 71% 71% 71% 74% 74% 72% 72% 68% 66% 58% 57% 57% 58% 61% 65%
POP 12HR 0% -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 69% -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
RAIN/SNOW (liq.equ) 0.00in -- -- -- -- -- 0.00in -- -- -- -- -- 0.08in -- -- -- -- -- 0.01in -- -- -- -- --
SNOWFALL 0in -- -- -- -- -- 0in -- -- -- -- -- 0in -- -- -- -- -- 0in -- -- -- -- --
WIND SPEED(MPH) 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 10 10 10 13 13 13 14 15 16 17 17 18 17 16 16 15 15
WIND Gust(MPH) 13 15 15 15 15 15 16 17 17 18 23 22 22 23 23 26 25 31 31 30 30 29 25 23
WIND DIR SE SE SE SE SE S S S S S S S S S S S S S S SW SW SW S S
DEW -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
HeatIndex 47 47 47 47 49 49 52 54 56 56 58 59 59 61 63 63 67 68 72 72 72 72 70 68
Rain Showers -- -- -- -- -- Scattered Scattered Scattered Scattered Numerous Numerous Numerous Scattered Scattered Isolated -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Thunder Storm -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
WIND CHILL -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
SPRAY COND
DRY COND
LIVESTOCK COLDSTRESS



DAY TUESDAY WEDNESDAY THURSDAY FRIDAY SATURDAY SUNDAY
EDT 6HR 8P 9P 10P 11P MIDN 1A 2A 3A 4A 5A 6A 7A 8A 11A 2P 5P 8P 11P 2A 5A 8A 11A 2P 5P 8P 2A 8A 2P 8P 2A 8A 2P 8P 2A 8A 2P 8P 2A 8A 2P 8P
MAX/MIN -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 61° -- -- 79° -- -- -- -- 61° -- -- 70° -- -- 45° 54° -- -- 47° 67° -- -- 54° 65° -- -- 49° 59° --
TEMP 67° 65° 63° 61° 61° 61° 61° 61° 61° 61° 61° 61° 61° 67° 76° 79° 70° 65° 61° 65° 65° 70° 67° 68° 61° 49° 45° 52° 52° 47° 52° 65° 59° 56° 56° 65° 63° 58° 49° 58° 54°
SKY COVER 74% 66% 54% 48% 50% 55% 57% 61% 67% 71% 73% 77% 78% 62% 49% 39% 39% 40% 67% 71% 89% 90% 95% 85% 96% 99% 97% 90% 87% 82% 89% 88% 84% 89% 97% 97% 97% 97% 84% 67% 60%
Clouds
DEW PT 56° 56° 56° 56° 56° 54° 54° 54° 54° 54° 54° 56° 56° 58° 56° 56° 56° 56° 56° 56° 58° 58° 58° 56° 52° 45° 43° 45° 45° 43° 47° 56° 54° 54° 54° 56° 52° 49° 47° 43° 41°
RH 70% 75% 74% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 78% 77% 77% 81% 80% 70% 51% 47% 59% 75% 80% 72% 75% 65% 69% 62% 74% 88% 92% 77% 74% 89% 82% 72% 80% 93% 93% 70% 69% 71% 89% 55% 61%
POP 12HR 33% -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 3% -- -- -- 4% -- -- -- 8% -- -- -- 73% -- 93% -- 56% -- 45% -- 53% -- 65% -- 74% -- 74% -- 34%
RAIN/SNOW (liq.equ) 0.00in -- -- -- -- -- 0.00in -- -- -- -- -- 0.00in -- 0.00in -- 0.00in -- 0.00in -- 0.00in -- 0.13in -- 0.17in -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
SNOWFALL 0in -- -- -- -- -- 0in -- -- -- -- -- 0in -- 0in -- 0in -- 0in -- 0in -- 0in -- 0in -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
WIND SPEED(MPH) 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 15 16 15 10 13 13 13 13 13 10 9 8 7 8 7 7 7 7 9 9 13 15 10 10 8 10 7 7
WIND DIR S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S SW SW SW N NE NE NE NE E SE S S S SW SW SW SW W W NW
HeatIndex 67 65 63 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 67 76 79 70 65 61 65 65 70 67 68 61 49 45 52 52 47 52 65 59 56 56 65 63 58 49 58 54
Rain Showers -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- Likely Likely Likely Likely Definite Definite Likely Chance Chance Chance Chance Chance Chance Likely Likely Likely Likely Likely Chance Slight Chance --
Thunder Storm -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- Slight Chance Slight Chance -- -- -- -- -- -- -- Slight Chance -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
WIND CHILL -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 41° -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
SPRAY COND
DRY COND
LIVESTOCK COLDSTRESS

Click on individual weather variable above in left-hand column (ie., TEMP, RH, QPF 12HR) to view state forecast maps






NWS 48 Hr. Forecast Maps,

Harzardous Weather Outlooks

PAH

	
Sun Feb 18 17:18:01 EST 2018

Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
404 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Gusty south winds are expected Monday through Tuesday. Wind gusts
from 30 to 40 mph are likely each afternoon.

A prolonged period of wet weather is forecast to set up over the 
Ohio and Mississippi River valleys this week. The potential for 
flooding will need to be monitored in the coming days as we gain a
better idea of where and exactly how much rainfall will occur.
Right now, the highest amounts are forecast to lie across 
southeast Missouri into southern Illinois. The best chances of 
heavy rain are Tuesday night and Wednesday, then again Friday 
through Saturday.

Scattered thunderstorms will also be a possibility, especially as
we head into next weekend. 

Minor flooding is forecast to continue along the Green and Ohio 
Rivers. Refer to those warnings and statements for details.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.



LMK

	

	Sun Feb 18 15:59:45 EST 2018

Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-
Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-
Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle-
Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-
Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-
Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper, 
English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport, 
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield, 
Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford, 
Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana, 
Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle, 
Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester, 
Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown, 
Brownsville, Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty, 
Stanford, Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence, 
Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown, 
Burkesville, and Albany
359 PM EST Sun Feb 18 2018 /259 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2018/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Several rounds of rainfall are likely mid week onward across southern
Indiana and central Kentucky. The axis of heaviest rainfall looks to
be across southern Indiana and west central Kentucky where in excess
of 3 inches are possible. With soils saturated and area streams and 
rivers running high, additional flooding is likely where the heaviest
rainfall occurs. 

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.


  
JKL


Sun Feb 18 15:28:02 EST 2018

Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-
Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-
Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-
Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike-
Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, 
Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, 
Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, 
Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, 
Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, 
Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, 
Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, 
Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, 
Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run, 
Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson
327 PM EST Sun Feb 18 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

High water is expected along portions of the Kentucky, Red, and 
Cumberland River basins.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

High water is expected along portions of the Kentucky and and 
Cumberland River basins on Monday. 

Thunderstorms are possible Wednesday into Wednesday evening. 

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.



 

Fire Weather Outlooks

PAH

	

 

LMK

	

	
   
JKL


	
 
 
Climate and Weather Topics

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All Maps page

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) divides the United States into 10 climate zones that vary at 10 degree farenheit increments based on average miniumum temperature.

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