-=-=-=-=-=-=-Severe Weather Safety Tips Click Here-=-=-=-=-=- What is UTC time? Click here to find out.... Mouseover to pause!......Kentucky Short-term forecast... Western KY .TODAY...Partly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 80s. Southwest winds around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation 20 percent. Central KY .THIS AFTERNOON...Partly cloudy. Highs in the mid 80s. West winds 5 to 10 mph. Eastern KY .REST OF TODAY...Mostly cloudy early then becoming partly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms early. Highs in the mid 80s. Light winds. +_+_+_+_+_+_+_+_+_ ....Here's the Central Kentucky 7-day hazardous weather outlook from the National Weather Service... From the UK ag weather center. Updated: 3 AM Sun Jun 24 2018 this hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central indiana and central kentucky. .day one...today and tonight. scattered to numerous storms will be possible late this afternoon into tonight as a weather system approaches from the west. gusty winds, small hail, and heavy downpours will accompany the strongest storms. .days two through seven...monday through saturday. scattered storms are expected each day. heavy downpours, gusty winds, and small hail will accompany the strongest storms. .spotter information statement... spotter activation is not expected today. This hazardous forecast is provided by The National Weather Service. ...The mission of the UK Agricultural Weather Program/Center is to provide educational resources through the development of agricultural weather products and services that minimize weather surprise to Kentucky residents relative to their agricultural needs... Detailed forecast information is available in your Precision Ag Weather forecast here... -=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- Long-range outlooks here.
Sun Jun 24 14:38:55 EDT 2018
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For the forecasted weather conditions in Kentucky this coming week, click here. All Ky summaries here, Campus hourly forecast graph Forecast graphic: PAH, LEX JKL



 Across the Commonwealth...
Western KY .TODAY...Partly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 80s. Southwest winds around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation 20 percent. Central KY .THIS AFTERNOON...Partly cloudy. Highs in the mid 80s. West winds 5 to 10 mph. Eastern KY .REST OF TODAY...Mostly cloudy early then becoming partly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms early. Highs in the mid 80s. Light winds.
Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Kentucky
Based on observations at 200pm EDT, Sunday June 24, 2018

Across Kentucky...temperatures are near 82 degrees west, near 84 degrees central, and near 85 degrees east. Current sky conditions are partly sunny west, fair central, and fair east. In the west, relative humidity is near 71%, and the dew point is near 72 degrees. In the central part of the state, relative humidity is near 58%, and the dew point is near 68 degrees. In the east, relative humidity is near 65%, and the dew point is near 72 degrees. The heat index is near 91 degrees east. Current drying conditions are fair west, fair central, and fair east. The livestock heat stress category is no stress west, no stress central, and danger east. Winds are from the west at 9 mph west, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the west at 9 mph central, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are variable at 6 mph east, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Based on current available observations, the highest temperature is 89 degrees at Bowling Green. The lowest temperature is 82 degrees at Paducah and Covington. Click here for the entire list of ag. weather observations across Kentucky.

  

Kentucky State Forecast

Western KY:
Central KY:
Eastern KY:

Specific and detailed farm-by-farm weather forecast information is available in your Point Ag Forecast. New County Ag Weather Page, Current Conditions:Kentucky
, U.S.
Across the Commonwealth for the next week...

Kentucky Medium & Long Range Outlook:

KENTUCKY --------------------------------------------- 6 TO 10 DAY 8 TO 14 DAY 30 DAY 90 DAY JUN 29-JUL 3 JUL 1-JUL 7 JUL JUL-SEP ----------- ----------- -------- --------- Temperature: Above Above Above Above Precipitation: Above Normal Normal Normal .... Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy
Click here for the outlook maps.

 


Weather Story & Fire Outlook

LMK

	
JKL

	
   

Zones Forecasts

PAH

	
Sun Jun 24 10:37:46 EDT 2018

McCracken-
Including the city of Paducah
937 AM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018

.TODAY...Partly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms in the
afternoon. Highs in the upper 80s. Southwest winds around 5 mph.
Chance of precipitation 20 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Scattered showers and thunderstorms in the evening,
then numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms after midnight.
Lows in the lower 70s. Southeast winds around 5 mph. Chance of
precipitation 70 percent. 
.MONDAY...Showers and thunderstorms likely in the morning, then a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Highs in the upper 80s. South winds around 5 mph. Chance of
precipitation 60 percent. Highest heat index readings around 101.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 70s. South winds
around 5 mph. 
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 90s. Southwest winds 5 to
10 mph. Highest heat index readings around 101. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 70s. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 90s. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 70s. 
.THURSDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 90s. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 70s. 
.FRIDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 90s. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 70s. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 90s. 


LMK

	
Sun Jun 24 12:57:22 EDT 2018

Fayette-
Including the city of Lexington
1257 PM EDT Sun Jun 24 2018

.THIS AFTERNOON...Partly cloudy. Highs in the mid 80s. West winds
5 to 10 mph. 
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 60s. Northeast winds up to
5 mph. 
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 80s. East winds up to 5 mph. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 60s. East winds
around 5 mph. 
.TUESDAY...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s. South winds 5 to 10 mph. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of
showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely.
Highs in the mid 80s. Chance of precipitation 60 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of
showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. 
.THURSDAY...Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs around 90. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 70s. 
.FRIDAY...Partly cloudy. Highs in the lower 90s. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 70s. 
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Highs in the lower 90s. 

    
JKL

	Sun Jun 24 10:30:25 EDT 2018

Breathitt-
Including the city of Jackson
1030 AM EDT Sun Jun 24 2018

.REST OF TODAY...Mostly cloudy early then becoming partly cloudy.
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms early. Highs in
the mid 80s. Light winds. 
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy in the evening, then mostly cloudy with
a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy with
a chance of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms near
dawn. Areas of valley fog near dawn. Lows in the mid 60s. Light
winds. Chance of rain 30 percent. 
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms,
then a chance of showers late. Highs in the mid 80s. Light winds.
Chance of rain 40 percent. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers
in the evening, then mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 60s. Light
winds. 
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny. A slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 80s. Light
winds. Chance of rain 30 percent. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of
showers and thunderstorms. Lows around 70. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny with showers and thunderstorms likely.
Highs in the mid 80s. Chance of rain 60 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of
showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 60s. 
.THURSDAY...Mostly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers.
Highs around 90. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 70s. 
.FRIDAY...Hot. Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 90s. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 70s. 
.SATURDAY...Hot. Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 90s. 

   
 

Weather Summaries

LMK

	
Error Openning File: [ /ldmdata/discussions/AWUS83.KLMK ]


JKL

	
Error Openning File: [ /ldmdata/discussions/AWUS83.KJKL ]
     
PAH

	Error Openning File: [ /ldmdata/discussions/AWUS83.KPAH ]
   
 


Weather Discussions

LMK

	

392 
FXUS63 KLMK 241728
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
128 PM EDT Sun Jun 24 2018

...Updated Aviation Discussion and Forecast Update...

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 1255 PM EDT Sun Jun 24 2018

Starting to see a few small showers pop up in south central KY and 
some thunderstorms further to the south in TN along a leftover 
boundary. Much of the high res guidance has isolated to scattered 
storms moving across far south central KY this afternoon. The 
forecast was updated to include this chance. 

Issued at 924 AM EDT Sun Jun 24 2018

The showers and storms that moved across the region this morning 
have exited to the east. The remainder of the day should be dry in 
between systems. It still looks like a line of storms will approach 
from the west late this afternoon into the early evening hours. The 
latest model runs suggest these storms will be a bit slower to 
weaken this evening than previous runs showed. SPC has expanded the 
slight risk area across almost all of south central KY to account 
for this. Damaging winds will be the main threat, but some 
marginally severe hail will be possible.

&&

.Short Term...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 310 AM EDT Sun Jun 24 2018

Scattered showers and storms are ongoing early this morning as a 
weak shortwave moves through the region. This activity will 
gradually work eastward and should be out of the CWA shortly after 
sunrise. Warm air between 800-700mb and subsidence behind the 
shortwave should result dry conditions through most of the day. 

Shortwave associated with MCS activity currently over the central 
Plains will have implications on our weather for late this afternoon 
into the overnight hours. While the evolution of this convective 
complex remains uncertain, outflow boundaries and/or the MCV will 
help to trigger new storm development later this morning and 
afternoon as it moves eastard. By 21z Sunday, the HRRR/ARW/NMM/3km 
NAM have the storms entering western KY and southern IL. The 
combination of deep layer shear (30-40kts of 0-6km) and instability 
(3000-4000J/KG MUCAPE) will likely promote a line or broken lines of 
strong to severe storms across western KY and southern IL late 
Sunday afternoon.

High-res models indicate a weakening trend as the storms approach 
southern Indiana and central Kentucky around and after 00z due to 
waning instability and increasing surface based CIN. Should those 
model solutions play out as advertised, areas generally west of I-65 
would have the best shot of seeing some strong/severe storms. Main 
threats with these storms in our CWA would be gusty winds and small 
hail. The current (06z) Day 1 SPC Outlook matches up well with this 
line of thinking. 

After 06z, we should see an increase in coverage of showers/storms 
as a 35-40kt LLJ develops. While severe weather isn't anticipated 
with these storms, PWATs will be quite high (+1.8") and training of 
storms could lead to some localized flood issues.

.Long Term...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 308 AM EDT Sun Jun 24 2018

...Unsettled Weather Likely for the First Half of the Work Week...
...Heat and Humidity Return by Late Week...

Quasi-stationary surface boundary will serve as a focus for renewed 
convective development at the beginning of the forecast period 
(Monday).  Storms will likely exhibit a diurnally driven pattern 
with the highest coverage/intensity in the afternoon/evening with a 
diminishing trend overnight.  Strong storms will be possible in the 
afternoon, but primary concern will be torrential rainfall and gusty 
winds.  The boundary is forecast by much of the guidance to shift 
northward Monday night which may push a lot of the convective focus 
to our north/northeast at least into Tuesday morning.  Highs Monday 
will range from the mid to upper 80s in most locations.  Overnight 
lows will likely remain in the upper 60s to the lower 70s. 

On Tuesday, we'll see a brief lull in the activity during the 
morning hours.  It appears that if we have substantial clearing in 
the morning, we could become quite unstable during the 
afternoon/evening as the next weather feature approaches from the 
west/northwest.  Scattered convective development is very likely in 
the afternoon/evening and will persist into the nighttime hours 
Tuesday night and early Wednesday.  Additional convection is likely 
Wednesday afternoon especially in our east as the upper level wave 
crosses the Ohio Valley.  Some strong to severe storms can not be 
ruled out.  However, with precipitable water values hoovering near 2 
inches, torrential rainfall, gusty winds, and frequent lightning 
will be the main threats.  Highs Tuesday/Wednesday will be in the 
mid-upper 80s again with overnight lows in the lower 70s. 

For the later half of the week, strong signaling in the guidance 
shows a strong mid-level ridge nosing into the region beginning 
Thursday.  Will likely to have to contend with some more convection 
Thursday afternoon, especially if we have a perturbation rolling 
down along the front of the approaching upper ridge axis.  The ridge 
axis looks to build into the area Friday and continuing into 
Saturday.  This will bring back a shot of heat with dewpoints 
getting back into the lower 70s again.  High temperature guidance is 
likely going to exhibit a high bias here given that we'll have a wet 
first half of the week and that we have lush vegetation in place. 
Therefore readings in the upper 80s to the lower 90s are more 
likely.  The urban areas though could get into the lower-mid 90s 
though.  Those temperatures combined with the lower 70s dewpoints 
will lead afternoon heat indices to get well into the upper 90s to 
the lower 100s at times.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 127 PM EDT Sun Jun 24 2018

Ceilings have finally risen to VFR at all sites this afternoon and 
very few showers are showing up on radar. Some storms may develop 
across south central KY this afternoon, but should stay south of BWG 
until early evening. Scattered showers and storms may affect BWG 
through the evening hours. For tonight, a larger complex of showers 
and storms will move in from the west after 06Z or so and looks to 
bring fairly widespread rain showers. Have added -SHRA to all TAF 
sites to account for this. BWG looks to be the most unstable, so 
will only mention TS there. The rain will move out around mid 
morning to early afternoon tomorrow. Winds will be generally light 
and variable overnight, becoming easterly in the wake of the system 
tomorrow morning.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

Update...EER
Short Term...DM
Long Term...MJ
Aviation...EER


JKL

	

206 
FXUS63 KJKL 241800 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
200 PM EDT Sun Jun 24 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 140 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2018

Did a quick update to fine tune the PoPs through the rest of the
day per current radar trends and the latest HRRR. Did also add in
the latest T/Td obs and trends to those grids. These have been
sent to the NDFD and web servers. 

UPDATE Issued at 1030 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2018

14z sfc analysis shows a weak pressure pattern over eastern 
Kentucky as the latest round of convection is departing the area 
to the east. Temperatures are running in the mid 70s most places 
with high dewpoints in the low 70s. Away from any lingering shower
or storm winds are light and variable. The early morning 
convection has left behind more low clouds and will likely hinder 
the temperature rise into the early afternoon and consequently 
limit the build up in instability build up. The latest HRRR runs 
has caught on to this and kept the convection to a minimum until 
late in the day. Am not ready to rule out a stray shower or storm 
for the bulk of the day but have significantly backed off PoPs 
through early evening. Otherwise, made some adjustments to high 
(and hourly) temperatures for today as well as incorporating the 
latest T/Td obs and trends into the near term grids. These have 
been submitted to the NDFD and web servers with an update to the 
HWO and fresh set of zones to follow shortly. 

UPDATE Issued at 711 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2018

Issued an update to the forecast to input the latest observations
and trend them into the mid morning hours. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will continue to press east across the area this
morning. The pop forecast seems to be on track for now so a new
zfp will not be needed for this update. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 353 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2018

Current conditions across the area this morning features a weak
upper level disturbance pushing across Kentucky this hour. This is
visible at this hour via the showers and a few thunderstorms
continuing to push into eastern Kentucky. Surface conditions in
the meso analysis does show some untapped surface based CAPE in
the far east. This will keep convection going into the daytime
hours as this activity will continue to persist into the mid
morning hours. Heading into the afternoon, the wave will finally
push into the Appalachian Range as the last of the convection will
dissipate in the east. Behind the wave, a brief bout of ridging
will bring a period of subsidence. As well, model soundings show a
period of mid level WAA bringing a cap to the convection. Thus, 
will lower pops in the Bluegrass and I-75 corridor region as the 
wave presses east and drop pops eastward there after. By 00Z 
tonight, will have a period of clearing across the area before
the evening hours. This time of year will allow surface temps to
rebound into the mid 80s for highs today. 

Heading into tonight, the period of subsidence will finally shift
east as a weakened MCS will take aim at central and eastern
Kentucky by late tonight into Monday morning. Like last night, hi
res models hint at some decent lingering instability into Monday
morning. This will lead to some convection with the potential to 
produce heavy rainfall. This is evident in the GFS and NAM model 
soundings with the PWATs around 2 inches by the predawn hours. 
This MCS will pass through eastern Kentucky into the afternoon 
hours. Behind the feature, a dampening of the atmosphere will once
again lead to convection dissipating and a general clearing 
heading into Monday evening. The main period of concern through 
the short term will look to be late tonight into Monday morning as
some strong storms will be possible with the available 
instability and support with the MCS. The aspect to watch for this
does seem to be a minor flood potential. 

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 411 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2018

An unsettled pattern will remain in place across eastern Kentucky
through midweek, followed by a hot and mostly dry period for late
week into next weekend.

Shortwave ridging will build into eastern Kentucky Monday evening,
helping earlier day showers/storms to diminish by sundown. Storms
will be on the increase later Tuesday morning and continuing
through the day as the previously stalled frontal boundary lifts
north through the Ohio Valley. An upper low migrating across
southern Minnesota into the Great Lakes will eventually produce
height falls later in the day as local ridging breaks down,
contributing to greater deep layer lift. Precipitation chances
will continue through Tuesday night and Wednesday as synoptic lift
and moisture remain abundant. The best coverage of storms should
come Wednesday afternoon and evening immediately ahead of the axis
of the upper trough and accompanying cool front sagging south
toward the Ohio River. Not overly concerned about storm severity
given multiple rounds of convection and the resultant hindrance to
instability. Will see some moderate instability Tuesday, but shear
will still be rather weak well ahead of the approaching
disturbance. Storm motions also look to be quick enough with the
aid of larger scale forcing, such that any flooding issues should
be localized. 

Following early day precipitation Thursday, a hotter and drier
pattern will ensue into the weekend as an upper high builds into
eastern Kentucky from the southern Plains and Mississippi Valley.
Some suggestion in NWP guidance that a few storms may attempt to
move around the periphery of the high, but have opted to keep
Thursday afternoon and Friday dry at this time due to lingering
morning activity Thursday limiting later day instability and
questions regarding available moisture in a northwest flow
pattern. Forcing looks to be pretty weak at this time given the
593-594 dam strength of the mid level high and H85 temperatures of
20C+, suggesting a potentially beefy cap to overcome. Could see a
few storms fire along the higher terrain by Saturday if the high
does shift east and allow for return flow to set in. What does
look certain is for a ramp up in the heat as afternoon temperatures
warm into the low-mid 90s with heat indices nearing and likely 
exceeding 100 degrees in spots. Further contributing to the 
hot/muggy feeling will be overnight lows remaining in the low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2018

Just some scattered showers passing through the area this
afternoon with cigs now improved everywhere to VFR. Later this 
evening into tonight a potential MCS will bringing another round
of showers and thunderstorms with attendant low cigs and vis
possible for the TAF sites with the same or a subsequent storm
cluster lasting into the mid morning hours of Monday. However, 
this convective development is highly dependent on the upstream 
evolution of storm clusters that have not even formed yet. 
Accordingly, owing to the overall uncertainty, will continue to 
monitor this situations into the evening with an eye toward 
inclusion in the TAF above and beyond prevailing VCTS and CB 
mentions. Through the period, winds are expected to be relatively 
light and variable outside of thunderstorms.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...GUSEMAN
AVIATION...GREIF

      
PAH

	
614 
FXUS63 KPAH 241521
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1021 AM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1021 AM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018

Mid-morning update to reflect near term (rest of today through
this evening). The latest forecast incorporates a blend of the
12z/13z (7 am and 8am CDT) HRRR guidance. There is some definite
near surface boundary layer shear in place, with broad
southwesterly 10 knots at 1kft and 35 knots at 6kft from the KPAH
VAD wind profile, while surface winds to the north of KPAH are
still south-southeast. The 14z LAPS surface winds showing 
convergence from the western Purchase area...northward to 
Uniontown KY and Pinckneyville IL...with winds from southeast to
northwest across that area. This is advecting higher thetae air,
with surface based CAPE's of 1500-2400 j/kg the west over the
southern Pennyrile and Purchase area of West Kentucky, moving
across the Mississippi River into southeast Missouri. 

With all this in mind, as the first vort lobe associated with the
northwest AR MCV moves toward the Mississippi River, may see some
invorgation of the convective line through southeast Missouri.
This should also heighten updraft cores as the line intersects the
higher theta-e air over southwest Illinois and west Kentucky. The
HRRR Updraft Helicity values increase with the approach of the MCV
into southeast Missouri between 1pm and 3pm before advecting east
into southwest Illinois and across the Purchase and southern
Pennyrile areas late this afternoon. This may certainly aid in
severe weather potential this afternoon and into this evening. 

Adjusted winds, temperatures, dewpoints, and cloud cover to
reflect precipitation changes in the near term. 

UPDATE Issued at 648 AM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018

Have increased POPs this morning over that part of southeast MO,
mainly SW of a line from Van Buren to New Madrid in response to 
shower/thunderstorm activity moving northeast through Arkansas. 
Expect the northeastward progression/development of this to 
eventually decrease but expect more development this afternoon as 
the 500mb short wave interacts with the destabilizing atmosphere. 

Amended aviation discussion for 12Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday Night
Issued at 238 AM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018

After a respite from showers/thunderstorms through much of this 
morning, we will see thunderstorms increase by afternoon, beginning 
across southeast MO and working eastward, as a pronounced 500mb 
short wave progresses east across the Mid Mississippi Valley. A 
nearly stationary boundary bi-secting the region will also provide 
some focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon through 
Monday as it tries to lift NE and leaves us in the warm sector. Thus 
will maintain solid chance to likely POPS across the FA beginning 
today across the SW 2/3 of the FA and across all the FA tonight and 
Monday except for lesser to no POPS toward the MO Ozark Foothills 
for Monday.

There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms today/tonight as the 
atmosphere undergoes its diurnal destabilization, peaking around 
1500- 2000 J/kg MLCAPE across the southern 2/3 of the FA late this
afternoon/early this evening. The other concern is heavy rainfall
potential with 1 to 2 inches plus forecast through Monday 
morning. 

Some upper ridging takes place by Monday night and most of the FA 
will see a break from the thunderstorms Monday night through Tuesday 
night. The main rain chance Monday night through Tuesday night will 
be in the N/NE counties in closer proximity to a nearly vertically 
stacked closed shortwave low moving toward the Great Lakes region. 

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Saturday
Issued at 238 AM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018

On Wednesday, we will be seeing what looks to be the last in a 
series of upper level disturbances to move through the area. This 
feature has been rather consistent for the past few days but the 
wave is not that strong but deeper moisture will be available. Will 
maintain the chance type POPs for now, suggesting scattered storms.

Upper level heights will be rising Wednesday night into Thursday. 
Models continue to suggest convection possible in our eastern 
sections on the eastern edge of the upper high. Decent moisture 
exists to support this and therefore, will continue to highlight the 
eastern half of the CWA for precipitation chances, mainly for 
Thursday afternoon but could see activity lingering into the evening 
if it does indeed develop.

The area appears fairly dry on Friday as upper level high pressure 
dominates, although the center of the upper high does look like it 
will be shifting east with time. Isolated convection cannot be ruled 
out however with the amount of moisture in place and not a very 
strong cap. Moisture returning on the back side of the departing 
upper high may be enough to warrant some storms as we head into the 
day on Saturday. With no real forcing though, will cap off chances 
to isolated.

It will be very warm from mid to late week with highs in the lower 
90s. We may very well see readings in the mid 90s across parts of 
the area especially on Thursday and Friday when the upper high 
becomes more established over the region. Heat indices will likely 
be in the 100 to 105 degree range for at least the first part of the 
extended forecast, with many locations possibly looking at heat 
indices above 105 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 648 AM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018

Storms associated with the eastward progressing 500mb short were
over NE AR and SW MO this morning and extending ESE into west TN. 
Still expect the main thrust of thunderstorms to move into southeast
MO this afternoon, although expect some storms near the AR border
this morning, but do not expect these to make it to KCGI or KPAH.
Therefore bring main round of storms through KCGI beginning at 
00Z and at 01Z for KPAH with vicinity showers just prior to those
times. May need to adjust times earlier depending on progression 
of the MCS moving into AR. Will keep VCSH after 22Z at KEVV and 
KOWB as the chance spreads northeast this afternoon and evening. 
VFR conditions should largely prevail through the forecast period,
although a period of MVFR is possible this evening. Winds will 
average southwest AOB 5 knots with gusts near thunderstorms. 


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...RLS
LONG TERM...CW 
AVIATION...RLS

     
 

Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Kentucky
Based on observations at 200pm EDT, Sunday June 24, 2018

Across Kentucky...temperatures are near 82 degrees west, near 84 degrees central, and near 85 degrees east. Current sky conditions are partly sunny west, fair central, and fair east. In the west, relative humidity is near 71%, and the dew point is near 72 degrees. In the central part of the state, relative humidity is near 58%, and the dew point is near 68 degrees. In the east, relative humidity is near 65%, and the dew point is near 72 degrees. The heat index is near 91 degrees east. Current drying conditions are fair west, fair central, and fair east. The livestock heat stress category is no stress west, no stress central, and danger east. Winds are from the west at 9 mph west, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the west at 9 mph central, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are variable at 6 mph east, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Based on current available observations, the highest temperature is 89 degrees at Bowling Green. The lowest temperature is 82 degrees at Paducah and Covington. Click here for the entire list of ag. weather observations across Kentucky.

  

Kentucky State Forecast

Western KY:
Central KY:
Eastern KY:

Specific and detailed farm-by-farm weather forecast information is available in your Point Ag Forecast. New County Ag Weather Page, Current Conditions:Kentucky
, U.S.
Across the Commonwealth for the next week...

Kentucky Medium & Long Range Outlook:

KENTUCKY --------------------------------------------- 6 TO 10 DAY 8 TO 14 DAY 30 DAY 90 DAY JUN 29-JUL 3 JUL 1-JUL 7 JUL JUL-SEP ----------- ----------- -------- --------- Temperature: Above Above Above Above Precipitation: Above Normal Normal Normal .... Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy
Click here for the outlook maps.

 


Click here for the PAH,LEX & JKL point ag cast.


ISSUED AT 18:00 UTC ON SUNDAY JUN 24 2018
DAY SUNDAY
EDT 3HR 3P 4P 5P 6P 7P
MAX/MIN -- -- -- -- 86°
TEMP 85° 85° 86° 86° 85°
SKY COVER 50% 48% 46% 41% 36%
Clouds
DEW PT 67° 67° 67° 67° 67°
RH 57% 53% 52% 51% 54%
POP 12HR -- -- -- -- --
RAIN/SNOW (liq.equ) -- -- -- -- --
SNOWFALL -- -- -- -- --
WIND SPEED(MPH) 8 8 7 7 6
WIND Gust(MPH) 13 13 10 8 7
WIND DIR W W W W NW
DEW -- -- -- -- --
HeatIndex 88 88 89 89 89
Rain Showers -- -- -- -- --
Thunder Storm -- -- -- -- --
WIND CHILL -- -- -- -- --
SPRAY COND
DRY COND
LIVESTOCK HEATSTRESS 78.80 78.23 78.82 78.67 78.37



DAY MONDAY TUESDAY WEDNESDAY THURSDAY FRIDAY SATURDAY
EDT 6HR 8P 9P 10P 11P MIDN 1A 2A 3A 4A 5A 6A 7A 8A 9A 10A 11A NOON 1P 2P 3P 4P 5P 6P 7P 8P 9P 10P 11P MIDN 1A 2A 5A 8A 11A 2P 5P 8P 2A 8A 2P 8P 2A 8A 2P 8P 2A 8A 2P 8P 2A 8A 2P 8P
MAX/MIN -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 67° -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 81° -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 67° -- -- 85° -- -- 72° 85° -- -- 72° 90° -- -- 72° 90° -- -- 72° 90° --
TEMP 83° 81° 77° 74° 72° 70° 68° 68° 67° 67° 67° 68° 70° 72° 74° 76° 79° 81° 81° 81° 81° 81° 81° 81° 79° 77° 74° 72° 70° 70° 68° 67° 70° 79° 85° 85° 81° 74° 74° 85° 81° 74° 74° 88° 85° 74° 74° 90° 85° 74° 76° 90° 85°
SKY COVER 30% 35% 40% 45% 51% 57% 63% 68% 72% 77% 75% 72% 70% 72% 74% 76% 75% 75% 74% 74% 74% 74% 65% 56% 47% 48% 48% 49% 53% 58% 62% 62% 70% 47% 60% 58% 66% 58% 61% 60% 53% 35% 32% 38% 36% 31% 29% 28% 28% 27% 25% 35% 42%
Clouds
DEW PT 68° 68° 68° 68° 67° 67° 67° 67° 67° 67° 65° 65° 65° 67° 67° 67° 67° 67° 67° 67° 67° 67° 67° 67° 67° 67° 67° 67° 67° 65° 65° 65° 65° 70° 72° 72° 72° 70° 70° 72° 70° 70° 70° 72° 72° 70° 70° 72° 74° 72° 70° 72° 72°
RH 60% 66% 73% 83% 86% 92% 96% 93% 96% 96% 93% 90% 86% 84% 79% 74% 66% 64% 62% 62% 62% 62% 62% 62% 64% 68% 75% 81% 87% 87% 90% 93% 84% 73% 65% 64% 71% 87% 84% 65% 71% 90% 87% 57% 65% 84% 90% 57% 67% 90% 84% 55% 64%
POP 12HR 17% -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 57% -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 65% -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 12% -- -- -- 38% -- 41% -- 54% -- 24% -- 19% -- 5% -- 4% -- 10% -- 13%
RAIN/SNOW (liq.equ) 0.00in -- -- -- -- -- 0.00in -- -- -- -- -- 0.02in -- -- -- -- -- 0.05in -- -- -- -- -- 0.05in -- -- -- -- -- 0.00in -- 0.00in -- 0.02in -- 0.02in -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
SNOWFALL 0in -- -- -- -- -- 0in -- -- -- -- -- 0in -- -- -- -- -- 0in -- -- -- -- -- 0in -- -- -- -- -- 0in -- 0in -- 0in -- 0in -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
WIND SPEED(MPH) 5 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 2 2 2 5 6 6 7 7 6 8 13 10 7 7 6 6 2 5 5 5 2 2 2 5
WIND DIR NW N N NE NE E E E E E E E E E E E E E E E E E E E E E E E E E E E SE S S SW S S S SW SW SW SW W W SW S SW W S S S S
HeatIndex 87 84 77 74 72 70 68 68 67 67 67 68 70 72 74 76 82 83 85 85 83 83 83 83 82 77 74 72 70 70 68 67 70 79 90 90 86 74 74 93 85 74 74 96 90 74 74 98 94 74 76 97 90
Rain Showers -- -- -- -- -- Slight Chance Slight Chance Chance Chance Likely Likely Likely Likely Likely Likely Likely Likely Likely Likely Chance Chance Slight Chance Slight Chance -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- Slight Chance Slight Chance Chance Chance Chance Chance Chance Chance Slight Chance -- -- Slight Chance -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Thunder Storm -- -- -- -- -- Slight Chance Slight Chance Slight Chance Slight Chance Slight Chance Slight Chance Slight Chance Slight Chance Slight Chance Slight Chance Slight Chance Slight Chance Slight Chance Chance Chance Chance Slight Chance Slight Chance -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- Slight Chance Slight Chance Chance Chance Chance Chance Chance Chance Slight Chance -- -- Slight Chance -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
WIND CHILL -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
SPRAY COND
DRY COND
LIVESTOCK HEATSTRESS 77.68 76.85 74.30 72.58 70.98 69.51 67.80 67.65 66.82 66.82 66.68 67.49 69.14 70.84 72.24 73.54 75.22 76.60 76.36 76.36 76.36 76.36 76.36 76.36 75.00 73.80 71.91 70.62 69.20 69.20 67.49 66.68 69.01 76.00 79.96 79.81 77.46 72.91 72.66 79.96 77.46 73.16 72.91 81.09 79.96 72.66 73.16 82.62 80.24 73.16 74.49 82.28 79.81

Click on individual weather variable above in left-hand column (ie., TEMP, RH, QPF 12HR) to view state forecast maps






NWS 48 Hr. Forecast Maps,

Harzardous Weather Outlooks

PAH

	
Sun Jun 24 04:18:59 EDT 2018

Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
318 AM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a chance of storms, including a slight risk of severe 
storms, through tonight across most of southeast Missouri, western
Kentucky and the southern tip of Illinois. There is a marginal
risk of severe thunderstorms elsewhere across the region through 
tonight. Damaging winds will be the primary storm hazards should 
a severe storm occur, with lightning and heavy rain possible with 
any storm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Isolated strong to severe storms are possible Monday and
Tuesday.Thunderstorms are possible across at least parts of the
region Wednesday and Thursday as well. Locally heavy downpours 
and lightning will be the more frequent hazards. 

Heat Index values will be in the 90s to around 100 Monday and
Tuesday, 100 to 105 Wednesday, and around 105 during the end of
the week. A heat advisory may eventually be needed during this 
time period.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should maintain a basic weather watch in case activation
is requested.




LMK

	

	Sun Jun 24 03:20:19 EDT 2018

Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-
Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-
Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle-
Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-
Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-
Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper, 
English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport, 
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield, 
Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford, 
Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana, 
Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle, 
Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester, 
Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown, 
Brownsville, Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty, 
Stanford, Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence, 
Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown, 
Burkesville, and Albany
320 AM EDT Sun Jun 24 2018 /220 AM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Scattered to numerous storms will be possible late this afternoon
into tonight as a weather system approaches from the west. Gusty
winds, small hail, and heavy downpours will accompany the strongest
storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Scattered storms are expected each day. Heavy downpours, gusty 
winds, and small hail will accompany the strongest storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected today.


  
JKL


Sun Jun 24 10:30:35 EDT 2018

Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-
Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-
Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-
Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike-
Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, 
Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, 
Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, 
Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, 
Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, 
Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, 
Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, 
Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, 
Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run, 
Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson
1030 AM EDT Sun Jun 24 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

A stray thunderstorm or two is possible this afternoon and
evening. A better chance for storms will occur late tonight with a
potential for heavy rainfall and gusty winds. 

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Some locales may experience heat indices in excess of 100 degrees
Thursday through Saturday.

Thunderstorms will be possible at times from Tuesday through 
Thursday morning, and again Saturday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.



 

Fire Weather Outlooks

PAH

	

 

LMK

	

	
   
JKL


	
 
 
Climate and Weather Topics

============================================================================
All Maps page

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) divides the United States into 10 climate zones that vary at 10 degree farenheit increments based on average miniumum temperature.

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