Sat Feb 23 14:46:54 EST 2019 ... =-=-=-=-=-=->-=-=-=-=-=- What is UTC time? Click here to find out.... Mouseover to pause!......Kentucky Short-term forecast... Western KY ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING... .TODAY...Patchy fog in the morning. Periods of showers and scattered thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall in the morning. Some thunderstorms may be severe with heavy rainfall in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 60s. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph with gusts to around 30 mph. Chance of precipitation 90 percent. Central KY ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... .TODAY...Showers in the morning, then showers and chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Some thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 50s. South winds 5 to 15 mph with gusts to around 30 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent. Eastern KY ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... .THIS AFTERNOON...Cloudy. Showers likely, then showers likely and a slight chance of thunderstorms late. Some thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall. Highs in the mid 50s. Light winds. Chance of rain 70 percent. Detailed forecast information is available in your Precision Ag Weather forecast here... -=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- Long-range outlooks here.
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Current Ag Weather Conditions

Based on observations at 200pm EST, Saturday February 23, 2019

Across Kentucky...temperatures are near 59 degrees west, near 58 degrees central, and near 55 degrees east. Current sky conditions are heavy rain west, cloudy central, and partly sunny east. In the west, relative humidity is near 89%, and the dew point is near 56 degrees. In the central part of the state, relative humidity is near 84%, and the dew point is near 53 degrees. In the east, relative humidity is near 93%, and the dew point is near 53 degrees. Current drying conditions are poor west, poor central, and poor east. There is patchy fog west. Winds are variable at 5 mph west, where conditions are not favorable for spraying due to heavy rain. Winds are from the southeast at 9 mph central, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the south at 8 mph east, where conditions are favorable for spraying. The livestock cold stress index is in the no stress category west, no stress category central, and no stress category east. Based on current available observations, the highest temperature is 61 degrees at Fort Knox. The lowest temperature is 49 degrees at Covington.
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172 
ASUS43 KLMK 231902
RWRKY 
KENTUCKY REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
200 PM EST SAT FEB 23 2019

NOTE "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

KYZ001>023-026-027-061>063-070>075-232000-
WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
PADUCAH        HVY RAIN  59  56  89 VRB5      29.82R FOG              
HENDERSON      PTSUNNY   55  52  89 SE6       29.83F                  
OWENSBORO      CLOUDY    56  54  93 SE8       29.84F                  
HOPKINSVILLE   LGT RAIN  58  58 100 SE16G22   29.83F                  
BOWLING GREEN  LGT RAIN  59  55  87 S12G23    29.89F                  
GLASGOW        CLOUDY    58  54  87 S12G21    29.91F                  
$$

KYZ024-025-028>034-038-045-046-053-232000-
NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
LOUISVILLE/SDF CLOUDY    59  52  77 SE10      29.87F                  
LOUISVILLE/LOU CLOUDY    57  51  80 SE9       29.87F                  
FORT KNOX      CLOUDY    61  57  86 SE21G28   29.87F                  
$$

KYZ035>037-039>044-047>052-055>060-089>105-232000-
NORTHEAST KENTUCKY
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
LEXINGTON      CLOUDY    58  53  84 SE9       29.94F                  
COVINGTON      CLOUDY    49  45  86 SE6       29.92F                  
FRANKFORT      FAIR      56  52  86 SE7       29.91F                  
$$

KYZ054-064>069-076>088-106>120-232000-
SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
JACKSON        PTSUNNY   55  53  93 S8        29.94F                  
LONDON         FAIR      53  52  96 S13G29    29.93F                  
SOMERSET       NOT AVBL                                               
MIDDLESBORO    RAIN      51  51 100 CALM      30.10F                  
MONTICELLO     CLOUDY    57  54  89 SE9       29.94F                  
$$

  





Mouseover to pause!...... -=-=-=-=-=-=-Severe Weather Safety Tips Click Here-=-=-=-=-=- Detailed forecast information is available in your Precision Ag Weather forecast here... -=-=-=-=-=-=-Severe Weather Safety Tips Here-=-=-=-=-=- Long-range outlooks here. =-=-=-=-

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For the forecasted weather conditions in Kentucky this coming week, click here.
Kentucky Short-Term Summary



Error Openning File: [ /ldmdata/discussions/AWUS83.KLMK ]

 


Error Openning File: [ /ldmdata/discussions/AWUS83.KJKL ]

 


Error Openning File: [ /ldmdata/discussions/AWUS83.KPAH ]

 

LMK

	

911 
FXUS63 KLMK 231824
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
124 PM EST Sat Feb 23 2019

.Mesoscale Update...
Issued at 123 PM EST Sat Feb 23 2019

A couple of elevated supercell structures were noted over western KY 
around 18z in an environment characterized by 500-1000 J/KG of 
MUCAPE and increasing SRH as the nose of the low low level jet is 
finally making into our region. These structures could make it into 
our NW CWA in the next couple of hours assuming they survive that 
long, however they will also be trying to outrun the best elevated 
instability so it is uncertain. A strong near-surface inversion is 
still in place so the only real concern if those supercell 
structures do survive into our area would be marginally severe hail 
and brief heavy rain.

Otherwise, seeing an increase in cellular convection to our SW 
associated with the low level jet and overall better forcing finally 
reaching up into our region. Higher PWAT air approaching 1.5" 
through the column will also work it's way toward the area over the 
next couple of hours. As a result, the Flash Flood threat is still 
alive across central KY, even though it has been delayed. Still most 
concerned about our southern CWA where FFG values are lower due to 
recent rainfall. However, central and north central KY will get in 
on the game later this afternoon as a convective cluster currently 
over NE Arkansas moves into the area. Will be monitoring the non-
surface based severe threat and flooding threat this afternoon, and 
still see a 6-8 hour window for a surface based severe threat this 
evening as a narrow instability axis works up into the area. Current 
Slight risk appears to have this area outlined well.

&&

.Forecast Update...
Issued 1130 AM EST Sat Feb 23 2019

Rains overnight were less than expected with KY Mesonet sites 
generally showing 0.5"-1" of precipitation has fallen over south 
central KY since midnight.  There was no flooding with this first 
round of rainfall, but it has left southern KY well saturated and 
primed for flooding/flash flooding as showers and storms continue 
this afternoon and evening.  Upper level jet support is already in 
place but expect to see increased moisture transport and lift as the 
LLJ strengthens over KY today.  Therefore, the Flash Flood Watch in 
place still looks good with southern KY standing the best chance to 
see flooding first this afternoon.

For the rest of the day, expect thunderstorms to enter southern KY 
early this afternoon and spread northward.  The warm front which is 
currently bi-secting central KY should continue to slowly move north 
this afternoon as well.  Storms may initially be elevated this 
afternoon with a strong low level inversion in place.  As we head 
into the evening hours, the risk for severe weather will increase as 
the main cold front approaches and the inversion weakens.  Our best 
window for SBCAPE looks to be between 0-6Z.  Any severe storms would 
most likely happen in this window with damaging winds being the 
primary threat.  An isolated, spin-up tornado still isn't out of the 
question but more likely to our south over TN.

&&

.Short Term...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 315 AM EST Sat Feb 23 2019

A large upper trough over New Mexico with an embedded low is headed 
towards Chicago. The leading edge of the trough is flowing northeast 
over the CWA. Tailing south from the low is a cold front that will 
move through the CWA this evening and early tonight. The CWA will 
sit in the exit region of a jet streak through this period as well. 
This could help provide a little extra forcing which is currently 
relatively low. At the surface, high pressure sits over New England 
with tight gradients passing through the CWA towards the low 
pressure system. 

With the warm front not pushing as far north as expected last night 
into this morning, heavy rainfall has been kept south of the border 
in Tennessee. Rainfall amounts have been delayed and updated to show 
this. The highest area of concern is still the Lake Cumberland area 
and areas near the Tennessee border. During the middle of the day a 
break in the rain will occur over most of the CWA. 

During the late afternoon, activity ahead of the cold front will 
begin to advance through the CWA. One word stands out with this 
convection today, shear. Shear levels will be very high in the lower 
levels of the atmosphere. Quick spin-up tornadoes are possible. A 
strong low level inversion will likely be in place over much of the 
area, so will the shear or inversion win? With the 0-1 km shear at 
times near 40-50 knots, spin-ups are very likely if they can become 
surface based. The best area for this would be in any cells ahead of 
the cold front and along any line of storms. With any thunderstorms 
that do develop as always, lightning, heavy rain, and gusty winds 
are all possible.  

After the cold front passage, the wind will take over. Winds by 
Sunday morning will likely be 20-25 mph with gusts 35-40 possible. 
Southern Indiana will likely see slightly higher winds as the wind 
advances from the northwest and pushes southeast into eastern 
Kentucky.   

Through Sunday morning, areas in southern Indiana could see less 
than an inch of new rainfall. Areas south through central Kentucky 
will see more. The Lake Cumberland area could see 3 inches of new 
rainfall. Areas seeing thunderstorms could receive a quick 
additional amount. Small creeks and rivers that are already high, 
will see more flooding. Pay attention to local warnings and 
forecasts.

.Long Term...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 245 AM EST Sat Feb 23 2019

...Windy Sunday, Then Much Quieter Weather...

Strong pressure gradient between a 975mb low lifting NE from 
Whitefish Bay on Lake Superior and a 1040mb high over the Canadian 
Prairies will produce strong and gusty winds over a large area. 
Expect plenty of 40-50 mph gusts across the Ohio Valley during the 
day, with the strongest gusts over southern Indiana and north 
central Kentucky. Wind Advisory is pretty much a slam dunk, but will 
hold off for one more shift given the messaging already underway for 
the short-term threats. Could see a few morning sprinkles from the 
wraparound moisture, but skies will clear in the afternoon. Cold 
advection in a well-mixed boundary layer will limit temp recovery, 
but with the zonal upper flow the air mass is not very cold, so most 
locations will hold in the 40s for most of the day. 

Quiet weather is expected Monday and Tuesday under sprawling high 
pressure, and temps warm to above normal Tuesday once the ridge axis 
is to our east. 

Low-confidence forecast for Wed-Fri as the models diverge. Zonal 
pattern makes it difficult to time the weak ripples crossing the 
area, so for now will go with a fairly broad-brush 20-30 POP for the 
latter half of the week. Whenever precip does fall, it will be 
scattered and light. Temp forecast is near normal, which could 
result in precip type questions. However it's worth noting that the 
colder Euro solution is also a dry solution, while the GFS has 
warmer temps to go with its precip chances. In light of that, the 
chances for wintry weather are actually quite low.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Updated at 1245 PM EST Sat Feb 23 2019

An active TAF period is in store as a low pressure system passing 
through the upper Midwest brings showers and storms through the 
region as well as strong winds.  Showers with embedded t-storms are 
likely at the TAF sites this afternoon.  The chance for t-storms 
increases this evening with some of those producing locally strong 
winds. Have included tempos in the TAF sites highlighting a period 
of moderate rains reducing flight conditions to IFR this 
afternoon/early evening and then a period of stronger storms/wind 
gusts between 23-6Z across the region.  Showers and storms should 
cease after the cold front passes through between 5-9Z with flight 
conditions returning to VFR or high end MVFR.  MVFR conditions will 
return tomorrow mid morning through afternoon.

A strong low level jet will accompany this weather system beginning 
around 0-1Z and continuing through the overnight period.  Winds from 
the SW of 40-45 kts are likely at 2 kft AGL.  While early evening 
sfc winds will be more subdued outside of convection (winds out of 
the south gusting to 25 kts), after 6Z we will see an increase in 
sfc winds (winds out of the SW with gusts 25-30 kts) and the latter 
half of the overnight period may not truly contain LLWS as winds 
aloft mix down more efficiently and persistently. All LLWS is gone 
by sunrise or just before with gusty sfc winds (winds out of the WSW 
with gusts 30-35 kts) continuing throughout the day tomorrow under a 
tight sfc pressure gradient.


&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...Flash Flood Watch until 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ Sunday for 
     KYZ023>031-033>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

&&

$$

Mesoscale...BJS
Update...AMS
Short Term...KDW
Long Term...RAS
Aviation...AMS


JKL

	

456 
FXUS63 KJKL 231746
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1246 PM EST Sat Feb 23 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1246 PM EST SAT FEB 23 2019

Only made a few minor adjustments to the forecast. Some of the
wording in the zone forecast text product needed to be updated so
that it read better and was no longer outdated. The hourly
forecast grids were refreshed using the latest surface obs from
around the area. All in the forecast is in good shape.

UPDATE Issued at 833 AM EST SAT FEB 23 2019

Rain has worked its way north through much of the forecast area,
and the forecast has been updated for the latest trends. Overall,
there are no substantive changes.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 524 AM EST SAT FEB 23 2019

There are three main concerns during the period-- excessive
rain/flooding, thunderstorms with strong winds, and strong
synoptic scale winds. All are due to a large low pressure system
which will be intensifying as it moves from the TX panhandle early
this morning to southeastern Ontario Sunday afternoon. East of the
low, warm and moist air off the Gulf of Mexico is being drawn
northward, and then lifted as it moves north of a surface warm
front over northern MS and central AL early this morning. This is
causing showers and thunderstorms just north of the front, with
the moisture/precip then streaming northeast in the strong mid/upper
level flow. Rain from this regime was over southern Ky early this
morning, and will spread northeastward over the rest of the JKL
forecast area during the morning. One to two inches of rain is
expected over the southern part of the forecast area out of this 
first round of rain, with lesser amounts to the north. Given the
already wet ground and some river locations still running high,
it will not be difficult to create renewed hydro problems. 

Once this initial slug of precip moves on, a relative lull is 
expected for a brief time this afternoon. Additional development
should then occur to our west ahead of the system's approaching 
cold front. This next round moves in this evening. Models
indicate elevated deep instability with this next batch of 
showers, supporting a mention of thunder. It's uncertain whether
the actual northward moving warm front will make it through our 
area before the cold front arrives from the west tonight. If it 
does, the instability could become near surface based. Without a
deep stable surface layer, it would be easier for thunderstorms to
mix down strong environmental winds from aloft. The southwest part
of the forecast area stands the best chance at warm frontal
passage, and is outlooked by SPC with a marginal to slight risk of
severe wx. As the gulf air continues to advect northward over us
at progressively lower levels ahead of the cold front, our
precipitable water will increase until this evening. It is 
expected to peak around 1.5 inches, which is near record level for
this time of year. This is concerning for precip efficiency and
flooding threat. The good thing in terms of flooding is that
thunderstorms will be rapidly moving, which will limit the amount
of rain that individual storms can put down. However, if 
significant training/multiple storm hits were to occur somewhere,
there could still be trouble. The cold front will pass overnight 
and precip will finally come to an end. 

As colder air arrives behind the front, low level lapse rates will
steepen and allow mixing. Models show strong winds aloft in the
mixed layer, and conditions will become breezy and gusty. Although
temperatures won't hardly climb on Sunday, solar insolation will 
further steepen lapse rates and deepen the mixed layer in the cold
air advection. It looks like most of the area will see gusts of 
40 mph or greater on Sunday, and a wind advisory will probably be 
needed. Will let the current flooding and severe wx threat play 
out for a while longer before introducing another headline. It may
end up being done later during the day shift. On a more minor 
note, a few showers can not be ruled out with shallow convection 
around mid day on Sunday, but they would be of no hydro concern.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 413 AM EST SAT FEB 23 2019

A strong storm system will progress into eastern Canada, as high
pressure begins nosing into the Tennessee and Ohio Valley Sunday
night. The gradient will keep winds some what elevated early
Sunday evening before relenting through the night. Some of the
southwest deep valley locations could decouple and lead to some
slight ridge/valley temperatures splits by Monday morning. The
guidance is in reasonable agreement with this surface high
remaining to our north and west through at least Tuesday and this
will lead to dry weather through at least Tuesday night.

The GFS is a little more progressive with the surface high
mentioned above, as flow aloft becomes more zonal overtime. This
zonal flow will bring minor perturbations across the Ohio Valley
at times Wednesday into Friday. This will bring minor chances of
precipitation through the remainder of the period from time to
time. The GFS remains most aggressive with the POP chances and it
brings a little stronger boundary across the area by Thursday into
Friday. However, the model uncertainty remains high mid to late
next week, but zonal flow tends to keep us more open to small
scale waves. Given this did opt to keep more slight to chance POPs
at best through Friday. The good news is the precipitation amounts 
will remain quite light compared to recent rainfall events. The 
period will present temperatures averaging near normal for this 
time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM EST SAT FEB 23 2019

Conditions at the TAF sites will continue to vary widely, ranging
from IFR to VFR, while rain was falling at most places south of 
the Mountain Parkway. The rain should slack off quite a bit this 
afternoon, before we see a resurgance in the rain this evening and
tonight as a warm front first moves through the area, and then a
cold/occluded front overnight. Because of the expected widely
varying conditions, the flight category forecast is not one of 
high confidence.

Thunderstorms will become a possibility late this afternoon and
tonight. Southwest winds aloft will also pick up at that time and
lead to low level wind shear. Showers and thunderstorms will come
to an end with passage of a cold front late tonight, and 
conditions are expected to improve to MVFR, and potentially even
VFR near the end of the period. Winds will also pick up behind the
front, with west southwesterly gusts of 25-35 knots in most places
by the end of the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...AR

      
PAH

	
114 
FXUS63 KPAH 231818
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1218 PM CST Sat Feb 23 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1204 PM CST Sat Feb 23 2019

For aviation section only.

UPDATE Issued at 423 AM CST Sat Feb 23 2019

Updated for 12z aviation only.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 336 AM CST Sat Feb 23 2019

Myriad of weather concerns this morning are focused on flood and 
severe weather potential today and tonight, and strong non-
convective wind concerns tonight and early Sunday. 

Flooding concerns...

The persistent train of rainfall across Tennessee today has helped
relieve some of the flooding concerns on Friday. However the
inverted trough across the Lower Mississippi Valley is lifting
slowly northeast as the intense vertically stacked, but negatively
tilted low near the Oklahoma Panhandle at 09z (3 am CST) begins to
trek northeast into eastern Iowa by midnight (06z Sunday) This
will likely bring one quarter to locally one inch of rain to the 
southern Purchase/Pennyrile area through noon today, mainly as
over-running rainfall. The next round of locally heavy rain is
likely to occur with clusters of showers and thunderstorms along
and ahead of a cold front that is expected to move into southeast
Missouri around or shortly before 6 pm, exiting the area no later
than 6 am CST Sunday. It is difficult to determine the areal
hot spots for higher precipitation amounts associated with
thunderstorms this afternoon, but one quarter to three quarters of
an inch is not out of the question. Will continue to keep the
Flash Flood Watch in effect through expiration tonight, since any
amount of rainfall will go directly into runoff this morning or
tonight. 

Severe Weather potential...

In reviewing the initialization of the short term,  higher
resolution, as well as the Convection Allowing Models (CAMs)...the
NAM-WRF family and RAP model guidance seems to do a better job of
modeling the thermodynamic profile upstream. Decided to blend this
guidance in the current forecast, incorporating SPC/WPC guidance
for severe and hydrological issues. 

An impressed elevated warm sector is already in place just of the
surface with 25-35 knot southerly winds already in place between 
1-7kft MSL, with westerly winds aloft above 7kft agl. Elevated
thunderstorms area already working into the western sections of 
the WFO PAH forecast area as of 09z this morning. 

Southeasterly to southerly flow will work into the area from west
to east between 6 am and noon today, with a plume of 50 to 60
degree dewpoints advecting northward ahead of the front between 8
am and 6 pm today. The WFO PAH forecast area should be entrenched
in the warm sector between 18z-19z (noon to 1 pm CST) with
channeled but disorganized vorticity moving over the area. Could
see some initial storms develop and congeal into a line between 3
pm and 6 pm in a pre-frontal trough axis ahead of the cold front.
Given the intense low level wind speeds expected, anticipate that
most of the storm activity should be out of the WFO PAH forecast
area by midnight tonight. 

The potential for damaging winds and isolated tornadoes still
exist. Given the number of issues to address this morning, will
try to issue a mesoscale discussion later this morning to get into
more detail on severe threat and timing. 

Non-convective wind concerns...

The post frontal pressure gradient will surround the low pressure
system following the passage of a cold front through the WFO PAH
forecast area tonight. As it moves from Iowa to northern Lake 
Michigan from midnight tonight through noon on Sunday, the  
sharp gradient of winds will produce wind gusts between 40 and 50
mph across northern sections of the WFO PAH forecast area, 
generally north of a Perryville Missouri to Sacramento Kentucky 
line. Given the rapid onset of these winds behind the 
thunderstorms today and this evening, decided to issue a wind 
advisory from midnight tonight through noon on Sunday. As the low 
moves away from the region on Sunday, the winds will drop below 
advisory criteria, but still remain gusty during the day on 
Sunday.

A more tranquil weather pattern will then follow on Monday and
Monday night across the WFO PAH forecast area. 

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 336 AM CST Sat Feb 23 2019

Confidence is fairly low in the extended with several different 
model solution. They generally agree on the weather but their timing 
keeps flip flopping. The one good thing is that are all relatively 
weak systems that should have a minimal impact.

High pressure should be in control of the weather at the start of 
the extended...with temperatures near normal. Wednesday we have a 
weak cold front move through that may produce a little rain and 
possibly mix with snow at times. CAPES are near zero and LI's are 
positive. K index values do reach the mid 20s so for now will not 
introduce any convection. The models are placing a wintry mix over 
us Thursday morning and rapidly changes it over to liquid. This is 
from a very weak perturbation in the flow aloft with little support 
at the surface. So confidence in this scenario is very low but thats 
what the blend has yielded. Thursday night into Friday yet another 
cold front is poised to move through the region. This could bring us 
another chance of rain during the day time and possibly a mix 
overnight. Again this is a weak system and is not expected to have 
much of an impact at this time. These signals in the extended are 
weak which adds to the uncertainty of the final scenario.

Temperatures will be near normal with overnight low falling to or 
just below the freezing point. Daytime highs should be in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1215 PM CST Sat Feb 23 2019

Rain was starting to move into the region and ltg was already
detected near KPAH. expect generally IFR cigs through the 
afternoon. Some strong/severe thunderstorm activity would be most
likely over western KY, though isoalated storms will also be
possible over the rest of the region. There will be gusty south 
winds at the surface as well once the storms pass later today. We
should be VFR at all sites no later than 06z Sunday. Gusty
southwest winds 25-35 kts will still be a concern as we head
thorugh the night.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Sunday for 
     ILZ075>078-080>087.

     Flash Flood Watch until midnight CST tonight for ILZ090-091-094.

MO...Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Sunday for 
     MOZ076.

     Flash Flood Watch until midnight CST tonight for MOZ112-114.

IN...Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Sunday for 
     INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Sunday for 
     KYZ014-018>020.

     Flash Flood Watch until midnight CST tonight for KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GM
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...KH
AVIATION...GM

     
 

Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Kentucky
Based on observations at 200pm EST, Saturday February 23, 2019

Across Kentucky...temperatures are near 59 degrees west, near 58 degrees central, and near 55 degrees east. Current sky conditions are heavy rain west, cloudy central, and partly sunny east. In the west, relative humidity is near 89%, and the dew point is near 56 degrees. In the central part of the state, relative humidity is near 84%, and the dew point is near 53 degrees. In the east, relative humidity is near 93%, and the dew point is near 53 degrees. Current drying conditions are poor west, poor central, and poor east. There is patchy fog west. Winds are variable at 5 mph west, where conditions are not favorable for spraying due to heavy rain. Winds are from the southeast at 9 mph central, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the south at 8 mph east, where conditions are favorable for spraying. The livestock cold stress index is in the no stress category west, no stress category central, and no stress category east. Based on current available observations, the highest temperature is 61 degrees at Fort Knox. The lowest temperature is 49 degrees at Covington. Click here for the entire list of ag. weather observations across Kentucky.

  
Updated Saturday, February 23, 2019

...Flash Flood Watch Issued Through This Evening...
...Additional Heavy Rainfall & Strong To Severe Thunderstorms This Evening...
...Renewed Flood And River Flood Expected For Weekend And Into Next Week...

Widespread heavy rain is possible today, with strong storms this evening as a strong storm system affects the Ohio Valley. Strong and gusty west winds are expected on Sunday behind the departing system. Quiet weather and seasonable temperatures will follow Monday and Tuesday under sprawling high pressure. Periodic chances for light rain will return for the latter half of the upcoming week.

Area rivers will remain high from recent rainfall. See our webpage for the most recent updates to river flood advisories and flood warnings.

Heavy rain is likely today, with 1 to 2 inches of additional rainfall possible. Areal and renewed small stream flooding is likely where the heaviest rain falls, with localized flash flooding possible. Livestock producers should move animals to higher ground. Pet owners should also ensure pets are safe and moved from flood-prone and low-lying areas to higher ground.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this evening as a strong cold front moves through the area. The strongest cells will be capable of producing locally damaging wind gusts and brief spin-up tornadoes, mainly along and west of I-65. Briefly torrential rainfall could result in additional flooding.

Kentucky Weather Forecast

Western KY:
Central KY:
Eastern KY:

Specific and detailed farm-by-farm weather forecast information is available in your Point Ag Forecast. New County Ag Weather Page, Current Conditions:Kentucky
, U.S.

 Across the Commonwealth...
Western KY ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING... .TODAY...Patchy fog in the morning. Periods of showers and scattered thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall in the morning. Some thunderstorms may be severe with heavy rainfall in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 60s. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph with gusts to around 30 mph. Chance of precipitation 90 percent. Central KY ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... .TODAY...Showers in the morning, then showers and chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Some thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 50s. South winds 5 to 15 mph with gusts to around 30 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent. Eastern KY ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... .THIS AFTERNOON...Cloudy. Showers likely, then showers likely and a slight chance of thunderstorms late. Some thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall. Highs in the mid 50s. Light winds. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Across the Commonwealth for the next week...

WESTERN KY AREA (including Paducah):

     
Sat Feb 23 05:23:32 EST 2019

McCracken-
Including the city of Paducah
423 AM CST Sat Feb 23 2019

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...Patchy fog in the morning. Periods of showers and
scattered thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms may produce heavy
rainfall in the morning. Some thunderstorms may be severe with
heavy rainfall in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 60s.
Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph with gusts to around 30 mph. Chance
of precipitation 90 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms in the evening. Some thunderstorms may produce
heavy rainfall in the evening. Lows around 40. Southwest winds
10 to 20 mph with gusts to around 35 mph. Chance of precipitation
50 percent. 
.SUNDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 50s. West winds around
15 mph with gusts to around 30 mph. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the upper 20s. Northwest winds
5 to 10 mph. 
.MONDAY...Sunny. Highs in the upper 40s. Northeast winds 5 mph in
the morning shifting to the southeast in the afternoon. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows around 30. 
.TUESDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 50s. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 30s. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny. A 20 percent chance of rain showers in
the morning. Highs around 50. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 30s. 
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of rain showers and
snow showers in the morning, then a chance of rain showers in the
afternoon. Highs in the mid 40s. Chance of precipitation
30 percent. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of rain
showers in the evening. Lows in the lower 30s. 
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of rain showers...
possibly mixed with snow showers in the morning, then a chance of
rain showers in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 50s. Chance of
precipitation 30 percent. 


 

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CENTRAL KY AREA (including Louisville and Lexington):

  
   
Sat Feb 23 03:32:10 EST 2019

Fayette-
Including the city of Lexington
331 AM EST Sat Feb 23 2019

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...Showers in the morning, then showers and chance of
thunderstorms in the afternoon. Some thunderstorms may produce
heavy rainfall in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 50s. South
winds 5 to 15 mph with gusts to around 30 mph. Chance of
precipitation near 100 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Breezy. Showers and chance of thunderstorms. Some
thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall. Lows in the mid 40s.
South winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of precipitation near
100 percent. 
.SUNDAY...Windy. Partly cloudy. Highs around 50. West winds 20 to
30 mph with gusts to around 50 mph. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the mid 20s. West winds 10 to
20 mph with gusts to around 35 mph. 
.MONDAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 40s. West winds 5 to 10 mph. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 20s. 
.TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. Highs in the mid 40s. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 30s. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of rain
showers possibly mixed with freezing rain. Highs in the upper
40s. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of rain
showers and snow showers. Lows in the upper 20s. 
.THURSDAY...Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of rain
showers and snow showers. Highs in the mid 40s. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of rain
showers and snow showers. Lows in the lower 30s. 
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of rain showers
possibly mixed with snow showers. Highs in the lower 50s. 


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EASTERN KY AREA (including Jackson):

  
Sat Feb 23 12:27:54 EST 2019

Breathitt-
Including the city of Jackson
1227 PM EST Sat Feb 23 2019

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

.THIS AFTERNOON...Cloudy. Showers likely, then showers likely and
a slight chance of thunderstorms late. Some thunderstorms may
produce heavy rainfall. Highs in the mid 50s. Light winds. Chance
of rain 70 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Showers and a chance of thunderstorms. Some
thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall in the evening. Some
thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall late. Lows in the lower
50s. South winds around 10 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph late. Chance
of rain 80 percent. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. A 20 percent chance of showers. Highs in
the lower 50s. West winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Cooler, clear. Lows in the upper 20s. West winds
around 10 mph. 
.MONDAY...Sunny. Highs in the mid 40s. Light winds. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 20s. 
.TUESDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 40s. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 30. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny with a 20 percent chance of rain
showers. Highs in the upper 40s. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of rain
showers. Lows around 30. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny with a 20 percent chance of rain or snow
showers. Highs in the mid 40s. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers and
a slight chance of rain showers. Lows in the mid 30s. Chance of
precipitation 30 percent. 
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of rain showers.
Highs in the mid 50s. 


Kentucky Medium & Long Range Outlook:

KENTUCKY --------------------------------------------- 6 TO 10 DAY 8 TO 14 DAY 30 DAY 90 DAY FEB 28-MAR 4 MAR 2-MAR 8 FEB FEB-APR ----------- ----------- -------- --------- Temperature: Below Below Normal Below Precipitation: Above Above Above Below .... Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy
Click
here for the outlook maps.

And here's the UK Ag, Lawn and Garden Forecast...




WEST - Hazardous Weather
Sat Feb 23 05:45:55 EST 2019 Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton- White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope- Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh- Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves- Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell- Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean- Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter- Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid- 445 AM CST Sat Feb 23 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight A Flash Flood Watch remains posted until midnight tonight for all of west Kentucky and a small part of southeast Illinois and southeast Missouri. Please refer to the latest Flood Watch product for details. The Storm Prediction Center has posted an Enhanced Risk of Severe Thunderstorms along and south of a line from Fulton, Hardin, Cadiz, Hopkinsville, and Elkton Kentucky. Surrounding this Enhanced area is a Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms that covers all of the Outlook area south of a line from Doniphan Missouri, Grand Tower and Carmi Illinois, onward to Santa Claus Indiana. The remainder of the outlook area is covered in a Marginal risk of Severe Storms. Severe thunderstorms will be possible, especially during the afternoon and evening hours this Saturday. The primary weather hazards will be for significant wind damage and possibly tornadoes. Large hail cannot be ruled out as well. A Wind Advisory has been posted for after midnight tonight, along and north of a Perryville Missouri to Calhoun Kentucky line. Please refer to the latest Wind Advisory product for details. Minor to major flooding continues on most area rivers, and areal flooding from recent heavy rains continues in some locations. Refer to their respective Flood Warnings and statements for details. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday A Wind Advisory will remain in effect until Noon on Sunday, along and north of a Perryville Missouri to Calhoun Kentucky line. Please refer to the latest Wind Advisory product for details. Minor to major flooding continues on most area rivers, and areal flooding from recent heavy rains continues in some locations. Refer to their respective Flood Warnings and statements for details. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter reports of rainfall and flooding are appreciated. Spotter activation may be necessary later today. Stay tuned to the latest forecast and updates, in case spotter activation is requested.
CENTRAL - Hazardous Weather
Sat Feb 23 11:42:35 EST 2019 Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-Jefferson- Oldham-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Scott-Harrison-Spencer-Anderson- Woodford-Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Washington-Mercer-Jessamine- Clark-Larue-Marion-Boyle-Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green- Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe- Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-Cumberland-Clinton- Including the cities of Lewisport, Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield, Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana, Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle, Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester, Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown, Brownsville, Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty, Stanford, Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence, Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown, Burkesville, and Albany 1142 AM EST Sat Feb 23 2019 /1042 AM CST Sat Feb 23 2019/ ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kentucky. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight. Area rivers will remain high from recent rainfall. See our webpage for the most recent updates to river flood advisories and flood warnings. Heavy rain is likely today, with 1 to 2 inches of additional rainfall possible, mainly across south central Kentucky. Areal and renewed small stream flooding is likely where the heaviest rain falls, with localized flash flooding possible. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this evening as a strong cold front moves through the area. The strongest cells will be capable of producing locally damaging wind gusts and brief spin-up tornadoes, mainly along and west of I-65. Briefly torrential rainfall could result in additional flooding. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Strong and gusty west winds are expected Sunday behind a strong cold front. Gusts exceeding 40 mph are likely, mainly across north central Kentucky. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters will be needed through tonight to report heavy rain, flooding, and possibly severe weather.
EAST - Hazardous Weather
Sat Feb 23 05:34:49 EST 2019 Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle- Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan- Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott- Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike- Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson 534 AM EST Sat Feb 23 2019 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING... This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Due to recent rainfall, continued high water or flooding can be anticipated at some river locations in the Kentucky, Big Sandy, and Cumberland basins. Additional rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall are expected through tonight. This could lead to new flooding or worsening of existing flooding on area creeks, streams, and rivers. Also, the threat for mud and rock slides will persist. Strong thunderstorms are possible tonight, mainly west of interstate 75, with strong wind gusts being the main threat. The soft, wet ground will make it easier for trees to be blown down. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Winds will gust near 40 mph over most of the area on Sunday. Because of the soft, wet ground, this could lead to downed trees. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report observed heavy rainfall and any flooding through Sunday.