UK Ag Weather Center Briefing Updater: Fri Jun 22 11:28:59 EDT 2018
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Summary of Kentucky Mesonet & NWS Weather Stations for various time periods for entire state:(Updated daily - Based on PM Obs.)



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For the forecasted weather conditions in Kentucky this coming week, click here. All Ky summaries here, Campus hourly forecast graph Forecast graphic: PAH, LEX JKL



Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Kentucky
Based on observations at 1100am EDT, Friday June 22, 2018

Across Kentucky...temperatures are near 75 degrees west, near 78 degrees central, and near 76 degrees east. Current sky conditions are partly sunny west, fair central, and fair east. In the west, relative humidity is near 68%, and the dew point is near 64 degrees. In the central part of the state, relative humidity is near 68%, and the dew point is near 67 degrees. In the east, relative humidity is near 76%, and the dew point is near 68 degrees. Current drying conditions are fair west, fair central, and fair east. The livestock heat stress category is no stress west, no stress central, and no stress east. Winds are from the west at 9 mph west, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the south at 10 mph central, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are variable at 5 mph east, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Based on current available observations, the highest temperature is 78 degrees at Lexington. The lowest temperature is 70 degrees at Fort Knox. Click here

  
Updated Friday, June 22, 2018

...Storms Expected Into The Weekend...

An upper level low pressure system will move overhead today. An associated surface cold front will push in from the west and bring another round of thunderstorms to the region this afternoon and evening. Many places could pick up a half to one inch of rainfall with some locally higher amounts. A look ahead shows continued unsettled weather for the remainder of the week and into the weekend.

Another weather system should bring isolated thunderstorms to most of the commonwealth Saturday afternoon and evening. Additional storms are expected late Saturday night and Sunday.

Kentucky State Forecast

Western KY:
Central KY:
Eastern KY:

Specific and detailed farm-by-farm weather forecast information is available in your Point Ag Forecast. New County Ag Weather Page, Current Conditions:Kentucky
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St. Loius:
IND:
US:
Western KY:Tab1
Central KY:Tab1
Eastern KY:Tab1
Western KY:Tab3
Western KY:Tab2
Central KY:Tab2
Eastern KY:Tab2
Western KY:Tab4
Western TN:
Central TN:
East TN:

Across the Commonwealth for the next week...

Kentucky Medium & Long Range Outlook:

KENTUCKY --------------------------------------------- 6 TO 10 DAY 8 TO 14 DAY 30 DAY 90 DAY JUN 27-JUL 1 JUN 29-JUL 5 JUL JUL-SEP ----------- ----------- -------- --------- Temperature: Above Above Above Above Precipitation: Above Above Normal Normal .... Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy
Click here for the outlook maps. 2

 


  

661 
FXUS63 KLMK 221504
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1104 AM EDT Fri Jun 22 2018

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 1105 AM EDT Fri Jun 22 2018

Had some clouds form in the area ahead of the precip shield coming 
in from the west, so that is good news as far as severe potential 
going down some for today. Still just had a cell in Crawford county, 
closer to the surface low center, that formed a quick rotation on 
radar. Given stable low-level airmass, that likely remained above 
the surface. Will be watching over the next few hours for any 
stronger cells that could get some downdrafts to break through any 
stable layers. Otherwise, have updated the forecast to match current 
radar/satellite/obs trends.

Issued at 850 AM EDT Fri Jun 22 2018

Large mature low pressure system spinning over southern IL about to 
move into the Wabash area. Dry slot on the southeast side of this 
system is bringing sunshine from the I-65 to the I-75 corridor this 
morning. Clouds and rains are moving into our western counties now, 
with some lightning in a cell between Evansville and Owensboro. 
Expect more coverage of lightning to increase as we get these cells 
to move into a little more unstable air. 

Based on that heated area and the storms coming in, would not be 
surprised to see a few stronger storms pop up initially around 
lunchtime in that heated corridor between interstates. By mid 
afternoon think the threat for any stronger storms should get into 
our eastern and southeastern areas, the I-75 corridor down to our 
Lake Cumberland counties. Latest HREF hints at some stronger updraft 
helicity in that area in that time frame too, so cannot rule out an 
isolated tornado there...in area where SPC had the 2% tornado 
probability.

&&

.Short Term...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 326 AM EDT Fri Jun 22 2018

Early morning satellite imagery and observations reveal partly to 
mostly cloudy skies across the area with some clear spots here and 
there.  Still have some lingering convection across south-central KY 
that will continue to move on off to the east and affect mainly the 
I-75 corridor over the next hour or so.  Temperatures were generally 
in the upper 60s to the lower 70s.  For the remainder of the 
overnight, we expect generally partly cloudy conditions to continue 
with lows a few degrees cooler than current temps.

For Today, anomalous upper level low located just north of St. Louis 
is expected to translate eastward into central Indiana.  Trailing 
cold front behind the system is expected to slice through the region 
from west to east.  Latest CAMS guidance suggests that we'll see an 
uptick in convective development early this morning across southern 
IL/W KY with this activity developing further east toward the I-65 
corridor by late morning.  By the afternoon, some clearing and 
destabilization looks to occur in areas along and east of I-65. 
Convection should continue to develop and increase in coverage 
through the afternoon hours.  Some strong storms are possible given 
that we'll have some anomalously high mid-level flow across our 
region.  Atmospheric parameters would suggest damaging winds as the 
main weather hazard today.  Some hail reports would not be out of 
the question given the lower freezing levels.  Overall shear profile 
is impressive (speed-wise) across southern KY...especially SE KY and 
into the southern Apps.  It's possible that we could see some 
supercelluar type structures down that way, but as previous 
forecaster mentioned, the low-level flow doesn't look to back enough 
to produce a big threat.  Much of the area is in a marginal risk 
with a slight risk just to our southeast.  If more sufficient 
destabilization occurs this afternoon than currently forecast, a 
slight risk expansion into central KY would be justified.

Highs this afternoon look to top out in the upper 70s to the lower 
80s across southern IN and northern KY.  Mainly lower 80s are 
expected across central and southern KY.

For tonight, convection should weekend pretty rapidly toward sunset 
with the loss of heating and ample dynamical support shifting north 
and northeast of here.  Probably will see some scattered convection 
linger into the late evening with drier conditions taking place by 
midnight. Overnight lows look to cool into the mid-upper 60s.

.Long Term...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 256 AM EDT Fri Jun 22 2018

By Saturday morning, the anomalous upper level low that has brought 
numerous rounds of showers and storms will begin to depart the Ohio 
Valley. In its wake, 500mb flow transitions to a quasi-zonal 
pattern, and embedded waves within the flow will lead to increased 
cloud cover and precipitation chances starting late Saturday and 
continuing through all of Sunday. 

A very weak "cold" front moves toward the KY/TN line by Monday 
morning, and some slightly drier air moves in behind it. There is 
some model discrepancy with how far south the cold front dives, and 
should it stall over parts of central KY, Monday could end up being 
cloudy and potentially wet. Even if the front works its way into TN 
Monday morning, temperatures behind the front Monday are still 
looking to be around or even slightly above climatological norms for 
this time of year. Temperatures will continue to warm Tuesday as 
upper level ridging builds in over the eastern third of the CONUS, 
but a shortwave is progged to swing through on Wednesday and bring 
some showers and storms that might allow a brief break from the 
heat. 

Beyond Wednesday, upper level ridging looks to re-establish itself 
across the region per the GFS/ECMWF to set up a hot and muggy end to 
the week. The ECMWF is the most aggressive with the upper level 
ridge and associated heat, and shows some potential triple digit 
high temperatures as the core of the 500mb ridge settles nearly on 
top of the lower Ohio Valley. Think the ECMWF solution is a bit out 
to lunch with the heat, but the overall pattern from most long range 
models (with the exception of the Canadian) supports above normal 
temperatures through the end the month.

&&

.Aviation...(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 652 AM EDT Fri Jun 22 2018

Next batch of convection is developing across southern IL/southwest 
IN/Western KY this morning.  This convection will push northeastward 
and mainly affect KHNB and possibly KSDF early in the period.  As 
upper low translates northeastward from MO into central IN today, 
we'll see additional convection develop.  Better chances for 
convection will be seen at KBWG/KLEX/KSDF from mid-late afternoon 
with a reduction in coverage/intensity after sunset.  Outside of 
storms, conditions are expected to be VFR, though some tempo drops 
into MVFR/IFR will be possible within convection.  Surface winds 
will be rather gusty today with southwest winds of 10-15KT with 
gusts to 25kts at times.


&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

Update...RJS
Short Term...MJ
Long Term....DM
Aviation.....MJ


Fire Weather Outlooks

PAH

	

 

LMK

	

	
   
JKL


	
 
 

	




    

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ALL:ALL:

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Zones Forecasts

PAH

	
Fri Jun 22 04:52:59 EDT 2018

McCracken-
Including the city of Paducah
352 AM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018

.TODAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and a slight
chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 80s. West winds
around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 40 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers in
the evening, then partly cloudy after midnight. Lows in the mid
60s. West winds around 5 mph. 
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy. Highs in the mid 80s. Southwest winds
around 5 mph. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the evening, then showers and thunderstorms
likely after midnight. Lows around 70. South winds 5 mph. Chance
of precipitation 60 percent. 
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. Southwest winds 5 to
10 mph. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. 
.MONDAY...Partly sunny. A 30 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the morning. Highs in the upper 80s. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 70s. 
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny. A 20 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 90s. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 70s. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny. A 20 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the morning. Highs in the lower 90s. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. A 20 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms after midnight. Lows in the mid 70s. 
.THURSDAY...Mostly sunny. A 20 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the morning. Highs in the mid 90s. 


LMK

	
Fri Jun 22 11:05:15 EDT 2018

Fayette-
Including the city of Lexington
1105 AM EDT Fri Jun 22 2018

.REST OF TODAY...Partly cloudy. Numerous showers and scattered 
thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 80s. South 
winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms and
isolated showers. Lows in the mid 60s. Southwest winds 5 to
10 mph. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. 
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 80s. Southwest winds 10 to
15 mph. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of
showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s. Southwest winds
5 to 10 mph. 
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 80s. Southwest winds 5 to
10 mph. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s. 
.MONDAY...Partly cloudy. Highs in the lower 80s. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 60s. 
.TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 80s. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of
showers and thunderstorms. Lows around 70. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of
showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. 
.THURSDAY...Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs around 90. 

    
JKL

	Fri Jun 22 08:13:36 EDT 2018

Breathitt-
Including the city of Jackson
813 AM EDT Fri Jun 22 2018

.TODAY...A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms early.
Showers and a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in
the lower 80s. Light winds. Chance of rain 90 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Showers likely and a slight chance of
thunderstorms in the evening. A chance of showers near dawn.
Patchy fog late. Lows in the mid 60s. Light winds. Chance of rain
70 percent. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny. A chance of showers in the morning,
then a chance of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms in
the afternoon. Highs in the lower 80s. Southwest winds around
10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and a
slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 60s. Light
winds. Chance of rain 40 percent. 
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 80s. Light winds. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s. 
.MONDAY...Mostly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the mid 80s. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 60s. 
.TUESDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 80s. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of
showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of
showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 60s. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. 

   
 

Weather Discussions

LMK

	

661 
FXUS63 KLMK 221504
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1104 AM EDT Fri Jun 22 2018

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 1105 AM EDT Fri Jun 22 2018

Had some clouds form in the area ahead of the precip shield coming 
in from the west, so that is good news as far as severe potential 
going down some for today. Still just had a cell in Crawford county, 
closer to the surface low center, that formed a quick rotation on 
radar. Given stable low-level airmass, that likely remained above 
the surface. Will be watching over the next few hours for any 
stronger cells that could get some downdrafts to break through any 
stable layers. Otherwise, have updated the forecast to match current 
radar/satellite/obs trends.

Issued at 850 AM EDT Fri Jun 22 2018

Large mature low pressure system spinning over southern IL about to 
move into the Wabash area. Dry slot on the southeast side of this 
system is bringing sunshine from the I-65 to the I-75 corridor this 
morning. Clouds and rains are moving into our western counties now, 
with some lightning in a cell between Evansville and Owensboro. 
Expect more coverage of lightning to increase as we get these cells 
to move into a little more unstable air. 

Based on that heated area and the storms coming in, would not be 
surprised to see a few stronger storms pop up initially around 
lunchtime in that heated corridor between interstates. By mid 
afternoon think the threat for any stronger storms should get into 
our eastern and southeastern areas, the I-75 corridor down to our 
Lake Cumberland counties. Latest HREF hints at some stronger updraft 
helicity in that area in that time frame too, so cannot rule out an 
isolated tornado there...in area where SPC had the 2% tornado 
probability.

&&

.Short Term...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 326 AM EDT Fri Jun 22 2018

Early morning satellite imagery and observations reveal partly to 
mostly cloudy skies across the area with some clear spots here and 
there.  Still have some lingering convection across south-central KY 
that will continue to move on off to the east and affect mainly the 
I-75 corridor over the next hour or so.  Temperatures were generally 
in the upper 60s to the lower 70s.  For the remainder of the 
overnight, we expect generally partly cloudy conditions to continue 
with lows a few degrees cooler than current temps.

For Today, anomalous upper level low located just north of St. Louis 
is expected to translate eastward into central Indiana.  Trailing 
cold front behind the system is expected to slice through the region 
from west to east.  Latest CAMS guidance suggests that we'll see an 
uptick in convective development early this morning across southern 
IL/W KY with this activity developing further east toward the I-65 
corridor by late morning.  By the afternoon, some clearing and 
destabilization looks to occur in areas along and east of I-65. 
Convection should continue to develop and increase in coverage 
through the afternoon hours.  Some strong storms are possible given 
that we'll have some anomalously high mid-level flow across our 
region.  Atmospheric parameters would suggest damaging winds as the 
main weather hazard today.  Some hail reports would not be out of 
the question given the lower freezing levels.  Overall shear profile 
is impressive (speed-wise) across southern KY...especially SE KY and 
into the southern Apps.  It's possible that we could see some 
supercelluar type structures down that way, but as previous 
forecaster mentioned, the low-level flow doesn't look to back enough 
to produce a big threat.  Much of the area is in a marginal risk 
with a slight risk just to our southeast.  If more sufficient 
destabilization occurs this afternoon than currently forecast, a 
slight risk expansion into central KY would be justified.

Highs this afternoon look to top out in the upper 70s to the lower 
80s across southern IN and northern KY.  Mainly lower 80s are 
expected across central and southern KY.

For tonight, convection should weekend pretty rapidly toward sunset 
with the loss of heating and ample dynamical support shifting north 
and northeast of here.  Probably will see some scattered convection 
linger into the late evening with drier conditions taking place by 
midnight. Overnight lows look to cool into the mid-upper 60s.

.Long Term...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 256 AM EDT Fri Jun 22 2018

By Saturday morning, the anomalous upper level low that has brought 
numerous rounds of showers and storms will begin to depart the Ohio 
Valley. In its wake, 500mb flow transitions to a quasi-zonal 
pattern, and embedded waves within the flow will lead to increased 
cloud cover and precipitation chances starting late Saturday and 
continuing through all of Sunday. 

A very weak "cold" front moves toward the KY/TN line by Monday 
morning, and some slightly drier air moves in behind it. There is 
some model discrepancy with how far south the cold front dives, and 
should it stall over parts of central KY, Monday could end up being 
cloudy and potentially wet. Even if the front works its way into TN 
Monday morning, temperatures behind the front Monday are still 
looking to be around or even slightly above climatological norms for 
this time of year. Temperatures will continue to warm Tuesday as 
upper level ridging builds in over the eastern third of the CONUS, 
but a shortwave is progged to swing through on Wednesday and bring 
some showers and storms that might allow a brief break from the 
heat. 

Beyond Wednesday, upper level ridging looks to re-establish itself 
across the region per the GFS/ECMWF to set up a hot and muggy end to 
the week. The ECMWF is the most aggressive with the upper level 
ridge and associated heat, and shows some potential triple digit 
high temperatures as the core of the 500mb ridge settles nearly on 
top of the lower Ohio Valley. Think the ECMWF solution is a bit out 
to lunch with the heat, but the overall pattern from most long range 
models (with the exception of the Canadian) supports above normal 
temperatures through the end the month.

&&

.Aviation...(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 652 AM EDT Fri Jun 22 2018

Next batch of convection is developing across southern IL/southwest 
IN/Western KY this morning.  This convection will push northeastward 
and mainly affect KHNB and possibly KSDF early in the period.  As 
upper low translates northeastward from MO into central IN today, 
we'll see additional convection develop.  Better chances for 
convection will be seen at KBWG/KLEX/KSDF from mid-late afternoon 
with a reduction in coverage/intensity after sunset.  Outside of 
storms, conditions are expected to be VFR, though some tempo drops 
into MVFR/IFR will be possible within convection.  Surface winds 
will be rather gusty today with southwest winds of 10-15KT with 
gusts to 25kts at times.


&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

Update...RJS
Short Term...MJ
Long Term....DM
Aviation.....MJ


JKL

	

614 
FXUS63 KJKL 221421
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1021 AM EDT Fri Jun 22 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1021 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2018

Forecast is on track this morning. Morning precip has all but
exited to the east with only some rain still in extreme eastern
Pike and along the higher terrain to the southeast. Other than
some isolated to widely scattered showers at times this morning
current lull in activity will continue until mid day when more 
widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms begin to redevelop
and move back into the area from the west. Still looking for some
strong to marginally severe storms this afternoon and possibly 
into the early evening. The better the heating through the day the
more likely we are to see some of those storms. Will continue to 
monitor trends. 

UPDATE Issued at 824 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2018

A cluster of showers, with some embedded thunder, will be exiting
far eastern Kentucky in the next few hours. The latest HRRR has a
fairly good lull in the activity until later this afternoon.
Consequently, did delay the higher POPs an hour or so to align
more with this idea. Updates have been sent. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 359 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2018

Surface low pressure is currently positioned across Illinois/Indiana,
with a cold front aligned southwest along the Mississippi Valley.
Aloft, an unseasonably stout upper level low is churning near the
Missouri/Illinois border, with several vorticity maxima spanned
out ahead of the center. One of these lobes is currently moving
across central Kentucky and Tennessee, with clusters of showers 
and isolated storms initiating out ahead of this feature near and
west of the I-75 corridor.

The models remain in good agreement through the short term, with
the nearly stacked Ohio Valley system gradually dampening as it
moves northeast, reaching the upper Ohio Valley/eastern Great
Lakes region by late Saturday. 

Today will feature another unsettled day of weather, as scattered
to numerous showers and a few storms will likely be ongoing early
this morning, as the vorticity lobe continues to move east. A
brief lull in activity may occur from the mid to late morning,
before the next more pronounced wave moves in for this afternoon.
Most of the short term guidance continues to suggest categorical
POPs for the entire area, so will maintain the higher numbers.
Highs will be suppressed once again, with generally low 80s
expected. 

Showers and scattered storms will form in segments, some of which
could be strong, as 0-6 km shear of 30-40 kts will be on tap.
Instability still looks more modest with MU CAPE values of around
1000 J/kg, with some pockets of numbers closer to 1500 J/kg 
perhaps reaching just west of I-75 and near the Bluegrass. Wind 
profiles look fairly unidirectional above 850 mb, and freezing 
levels are above 13k feet, so will continue to mention the 
possibility of strong wind gusts, with small hail a lesser threat.

Convection will diminish into this evening as the vort exits off
to our northeast. Clouds should still be prevalent given the
cyclonic flow, so any fog would be more patchy once again. Lows
will be a bit cooler than the past several nights, generally in 
the mid 60s. The system will be dampening into Saturday; however,
given the maintained troughiness remaining close, scattered low- 
topped convection still looks possible and will maintain chance 
POPs. Temperatures will top out in the low 80s once again. 

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 408 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2018

The extended portion of the forecast begins on Saturday night 
with a persistent ridge developing over the entire CONUS. 
Undercutting the ridge will be several strong waves tracking 
across the Plains and into the Midwest. These waves will be 
bringing ample rainfall to the OH Valley into next week. This is 
combined with mid level ridging parked over the southeast CONUS or
just off shore in the Atlantic. This will continue to pump ample 
tropical moisture into the area. During the day on Sunday, a 
lingering surface boundary coupled with a passing wave overhead 
will provide a focus for convection for through the day. In fact, 
good instability and support aloft will lead to the chance of a 
few strong storms for Sunday afternoon. A diurnal trend through 
the day on Monday as well will lead to convection waning Sunday 
night but refiring on Monday afternoon as well. With CAPE values 
over 2500 each day for Sunday and Monday along with PWATS above 
1.50, heavy rainfall and a few strong thunderstorms will be 
possible each day but mainly on Sunday. A brief period in between 
disturbances will leave Tuesday to be a bit more quiet with only a
slight chance of precip. One of the mentioned strong waves 
tracking across the Plains will move into the Midwest and Great 
Lakes by Wednesday. 

This low pressure system will bring a cold front through the OH 
Valley on Wednesday with a good chance of precip Wednesday afternoon 
through Wednesday night. Model soundings show good instability 
with PWAT values above the 1.75 inch range. After passage, 
persistent ridging in the southeast CONUS will cause the front to 
stall a bit leaving a lingering boundary across eastern Kentucky 
for Thursday. This will keep a good chance of precip across the 
area for Thursday and into Thursday night. Overall, the pattern 
remains quite active with a chance of precip just about everyday. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 824 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2018

A cluster of showers with embedded thunder will affect KSJS over 
the next hour or so, before exiting off to the east and northeast.
Otherwise, some MVFR clouds will lift to VFR through this 
morning, with perhaps just a few showers threatening until after
18z. An upper level disturbance will then usher in a 3 to 5 hour 
window of MVFR thundershowers at all sites between 19 and 00z. 
Convection will likely diminish into this evening, with some lower
MVFR clouds potentially developing overnight. Light south
southwest winds will increase to 5 to 10 kts during the day,
before lessening once again towards dusk.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

      
PAH

	
282 
FXUS63 KPAH 221149
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
649 AM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 645 AM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018

For aviation discussion only.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018

A rather strong upper level low pressure system for this time of
year will move east across southern Illinois today, then lift 
northeast across IN tonight. At the surface, cyclonic flow will 
continue across the forecast area. Scattered showers and isolated 
thunderstorms will continue to pinwheel around the south and 
southeast sides of the upper low today. The highest rain chances 
appear to be to the southeast of the low, over southeast IL, sw IN
and into the Pennyrile region of wrn KY. Extensive cloudiness
wrapping around the upper low should also serve to hold afternoon
temps in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Precip chances should  
diminish tonight as the upper low exits off to the northeast, and
a weak area of high pressure slips into the region.

We will stay in a H50 zonal flow pattern for the remainder of the
weekend. This pattern will likely bring weak short waves eastward
in from the southern Plains, which will support one or more 
convective complexes. One such complex is expected to initiate 
over the southern Plains Saturday and may affect portions of the 
mid MS Valley region Saturday night, especially if the area can 
maintain favorable mid level lapse rates/instabilities. 

Therefore, will increase shower/thunderstorm chances again 
Saturday night, especially over about the southern half of the 
forecast area. Once this system moves east on Sunday, we should be
left in a fairly uncomfortable air mass with increasing levels of
heat and humidity. Thinking is that any convection Sunday will be
quite scattered in nature and diurnally driven given the lack of 
overall low/mid level forcing present in the wake of the Sat night
system.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018

As we start out the new week, an upper level ridge will be situated 
over the region. At the surface, the features are much more muddled 
by the models, which makes things difficult when it comes to 
forecasting precipitation chances. A surface high will be trying to 
build into the area late in the weekend and into Monday at least for 
eastern parts of the area. However, models are not in agreement on 
how strong this high is and how deeply it builds into the region. 
The models that do not indicate a strong surface high in place, do 
indicate a boundary in place over the area that might be the focus 
for some storm development on Monday. This is also in line with the 
latest GFS ensemble means.

The upper level ridge starts to shift east on Tuesday, as our next 
upper level disturbance arrives from the west. There are timing 
differences of course this far out but this feature at least 
warrants some small POPs for now. Another potential upper level wave 
will impact the area on Wednesday, but again, timing issues are 
prevalent. Upper level ridging is progged to build into the area 
toward the end of the week but as was the case last week, isolated 
to widely scattered convection could still be possible. 

Temperatures will start out on Monday in the upper 80s to around 90 
degrees but the rest of the week looks fairly toasty with highs in 
the lower 90s as low level winds become southwesterly. Heat
indices could climb above 100 degrees mid to late week. However, 
any prolonged widespread rain event will tamper those highs, but 
for now we will run with numbers closer to the available model 
consensus until a better agreement in any precipitation chances 
comes into view.&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018

A rather strong low will pass east across Illinois and Indiana over 
the next 24 hours. The trailing cold front will be poorly defined, 
making the timing of showers and thunderstorms a challenge. Although 
a shower or thunderstorm is possible almost any time, the best 
chance appears to be in the morning hours in se Missouri and far 
west Kentucky. Southwest Indiana and northwest Kentucky will have a 
better chance later in the morning into the afternoon. 

Outside of showers and storms, mainly vfr conditions are expected. 
The exception is during the morning hours on Friday, when areas of 
mvfr cigs are likely. These mvfr cigs may linger into the early 
afternoon, especially at kevv/kowb.

The chance of showers and storms will drop off late in the day as 
the low and cold front move off to the east. No precip will be 
mentioned for Friday evening in the tafs.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 645 AM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018

A rather strong low will pass east across Illinois and Indiana over 
the next 24 hours. The trailing cold front will be poorly defined, 
making the timing of showers and thunderstorms a challenge. Although 
a shower or thunderstorm is possible almost any time, the best 
chance appears to be over southeat IL/SW IN/wrn KY during the day.
IFR/MVFR conditions will be possible at times near the shower
activity. 

The chance of showers and storms will drop off late in the day as 
the low and cold front move off to the east. No precip will be 
mentioned after 00-02Z this evening.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GM
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...MY

     
 

Across the Commonwealth for the next week...

Kentucky Medium & Long Range Outlook:

KENTUCKY --------------------------------------------- 6 TO 10 DAY 8 TO 14 DAY 30 DAY 90 DAY JUN 27-JUL 1 JUN 29-JUL 5 JUL JUL-SEP ----------- ----------- -------- --------- Temperature: Above Above Above Above Precipitation: Above Above Normal Normal .... Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy
Click here for the outlook maps. 2

 


Click here for the PAH,LEX & JKL point ag cast.

Harzardous Weather Outlooks

PAH

	
Fri Jun 22 05:59:33 EDT 2018

Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
459 AM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible today into this evening.
Locally heavy rainfall and lightning will be the main hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible Saturday night. An 
isolated strong to severe storm or two cannot be ruled out.


Otherwise, a chance for mainly isolated heat of the day 
thunderstorms will continue through much of the time period. 
Locally heavy downpours and lightning would be the main hazards. 

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.



LMK

	

	Fri Jun 22 11:09:05 EDT 2018

Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-
Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-
Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle-
Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-
Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-
Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper, 
English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport, 
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield, 
Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford, 
Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana, 
Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle, 
Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester, 
Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown, 
Brownsville, Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty, 
Stanford, Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence, 
Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown, 
Burkesville, and Albany
1108 AM EDT Fri Jun 22 2018 /1008 AM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected through early
evening as a low pressure system moves across the Ohio Valley. Brief
heavy rain, lightning, and strong wind gusts are expected with the 
stronger cells. An isolated severe storm with damaging winds is 
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Another weather system should bring isolated thunderstorms to parts 
of central Kentucky Saturday afternoon and evening. Additional storms
are expected late Saturday night and Sunday, especially across 
south-central Kentucky with a few stronger cells possible.

Another slow-moving frontal boundary will impact the Midwest 
bringing a chance for storms to the region Wednesday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any severe weather or flooding 
Friday and through the weekend to the National Weather Service.


  
JKL


Fri Jun 22 05:19:03 EDT 2018

Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-
Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-
Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-
Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike-
Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, 
Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, 
Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, 
Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, 
Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, 
Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, 
Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, 
Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, 
Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run, 
Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson
518 AM EDT Fri Jun 22 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Thunderstorms will be possible through this evening. Some of the 
thunderstorms this afternoon may contain strong wind gusts, as 
well as locally heavy rainfall, which could result in isolated 
flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Thunderstorms will be possible at times from Saturday through
Monday as well as Wednesday through Thursday, mainly in the 
afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.



 


The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) divides the United States into 10 climate zones that vary at 10 degree farenheit increments based on average miniumum temperature.


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