University of Kentucky Agricultural Weather Center Serving Kentucky residents	On the World Wide Web at: http://wwwagwx.ca.uky.edu/

182 
FXUS63 KJKL 261408
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1008 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low chance of an isolated rain shower this afternoon. Otherwise,
  plenty of dry time expected.

-Becoming very warm this weekend into at least the middle of next
 week.

-Periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms, especially Monday
 night and Tuesday. 

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1008 AM EDT FRI APR 26 2024

Based on trends, have increase cloud cover more quickly to greater
levels than was previously forecast. Light rain and showers have
skirted our southern border this morning. The activity extends
northwestward through south central and western KY. It is making
slow progress to the northeast, and only minor changes have been
made regarding timing, with our POP remaining at 20% today. Have 
trimmed back previously forecast max temps for today slightly due 
to expected clouds and current rate of rise.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 429 AM EDT FRI APR 26 2024

High pressure over the Northeast US is retreating in response to a 
low emerging from the Lee of the Rockies. This low has a warm front 
draped across the southeast US. The associated warm front is already 
spreading plenty of high clouds through our area, and this will 
generally be the case through the day. There is a very low chance of 
isolated showers this afternoon. Very dry air in the low-levels (dew 
point depressions of 20 degrees, even at this hour) will be hard to 
overcome with forcing disjointed well to our northwest. Nonetheless, 
for consistency, have maintained the low shower chance. 

Ridging aloft amplifies Friday night through Saturday, marking the 
start of a very warm stretch of weather. As a result, certainly no 
frost concerns Friday night. The ridge axis overhead Friday night 
would suggest a chance for some fog, but southerly flow of 10mph or 
so will likely preclude this along with large dew point depressions. 
Highs on Saturday will crack 80 degrees for most.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 448 AM EDT FRI APR 26 2024

The period will start off Sunday in an amplified high pressure set-
up across the Ohio Valley, as a strong upper level low in the 
Central Plains continues to push NNE. This will lead to enhanced SW 
flow into Kentucky, resulting in well above normal temperatures. 
Thankfully, this upper level low and associated surface low pressure 
system will not push far enough eastward to impact Kentucky through 
the day Sunday, leaving us with warm but dry weather and mostly 
clear skies.

This set-up will persist into Monday morning as well, but things 
start to transition by the afternoon. The upper level low will be 
located in western Ontario by Monday afternoon, and weakening 
substantially. A cold front will expand southward from the low 
pressure system, and finally have moved far enough eastward to begin 
slowly traversing Kentucky from Monday afternoon through Tuesday 
afternoon. By this point, we will be quite a ways away from the 
weakening parent low. So while widespread showers and thunderstorms 
are likely along the boundary, it starts to lose structure by the 
time it gets to eastern Kentucky. Not sure how strong of a system 
this will be as a result. Soundings don't really show a good 
structure for thunderstorms, much less severe. Also, we aren't 
really transitioning to a colder airmass behind this frontal 
boundary. The amplified ridge will continue to shift eastward, with 
flow becoming more zonal behind, rather than a troughing pattern. 
Therefore, there won't be much of a clashing of cold and warm 
airmasses. For instance, pre-frontal temperatures on Monday will be 
in the mid and upper 80s. However, post-frontal temperatures on 
Tuesday and Wednesday will still be in the low 80s.  

Other than the fact that there will be zonal flow behind the 
departing system (which should continue the above normal 
temperatures), models really start to diverge in their solutions 
from this point going forward. There was hope that over the last 24 
hours models would start to come into better agreement for Wednesday 
and Thursday, but it's actually quite the opposite. For instance, 
the GFS shows a secondary upper level low and surface based system 
moving into Kentucky Wednesday night into Thursday with another 
round of widespread precip. The ECMWF, on the other hand, is more 
unorganized with this system, keeping eastern KY dry through a large 
chunk of this period. They both show potential for yet a third 
system developing to our west Wednesday night into Thursday, but 
again with little agreement on the strength and footprint of 
precip/convection. 

Given the disagreements, the NBM went with isolated to scattered 
convection from Wednesday onwards, and much like yesterday morning, 
don't have the confidence in any of the models to change this. More 
than likely there will be dry periods and potentially likely to 
widespread precip periods, but without the models being in better 
agreement, scattered/chance pops will suffice. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT FRI APR 26 2024

Clouds continue to stream in over the terminals, associated with
a warm front over the Southeast US. As a result, sky cover was
increased and cloud bases were lowered with this issuance; though
still VFR. Radar trends will need to be monitored today as
isolated showers move through. However, very dry low-level air
mass along with displaced forcing will overall limit coverage.
Wind gusts could increase toward 20 knots at the tail end of this
TAF period. 

 &&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL 
SHORT TERM...BROWN 
LONG TERM...JMW 
AVIATION...BROWN

Ag Weather Center, Department of Biosystems & Agricultural Engineering, University of Kentucky