University of Kentucky Agricultural Weather Center Serving Kentucky residents	On the World Wide Web at: http://wwwagwx.ca.uky.edu/

687 
FXUS61 KRLX 261426
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1026 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front brings scattered showers tonight into Saturday. 
A warming trend starts today and lasts through Monday. Hot 
temperatures expected Sunday and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1015 AM Friday...

No major changes were needed with the mid-morning update, as
things appear to be on track. Low clouds continue to hug the
Allegheny Crest but not really spilling over, and the clouds
over Kentucky are largely staying clear of the CWA for now.


As of 645 AM Friday...

Forecast on track.


As of 330 AM Friday...

After a frosty start for some valley locations, a warming trend
ensues today, as southeast downslope flow develops and increases
on the back side of high pressure exiting to the east, and 
ahead of a warm front approaching from the southwest. This flow 
increases a bit further tonight, especially on ridge /and not 
so much in better protected valleys/ as warm advection flow 
aloft backs to the southwest and increases. This warm advection 
flow, along with vanishing h85-h7 condensation pressure 
deficits, spell increasing clouds tonight, with showers becoming
possible, especially overnight.

Stratus in the southeast flow was reaching southeast edges of
the forecast area this morning along southeast facing slopes, 
and will make slightly better inroads there late tonight.

Temperatures will be a bit above normal for highs today and lows
tonight, even with a forecast a bit below central guidance.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Friday...

A warm front is scheduled to slide across the forecast area on 
Saturday allowing for warmer air to infiltrate the region in its 
wake. High temperatures in the lower 80s will be common across 
portions of the lowlands as a result, with 50s, 60s and even some 
70s in the mountains. Dew points will be in the 40s and 50s, so it 
will feel quite comfortable, maybe even on the drier side, as 
opposed to an oppressive mugginess. 

Lingering moisture will allow for mostly cloudy skies through the 
day and there is the chance for a shower or thunderstorm early, 
particularly across the northern lowlands and the northern 
mountains. Chances will decrease fairly quickly by afternoon as the 
warm front pushes off to the north.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 245 AM Friday...

Warming trend will continue Sunday and Monday as an azores high 
offshore from the eastern CONUS will allow for summerlike 
temperatures, hot temperatures expected Sunday and Monday. 
Monday looks to be the hottest day with highs in the upper 80s 
to near 90 across portions of the lowlands, approaching near-
record values across portions of the mountains and northern 
lowlands. This period will also be marked by dry weather thanks 
to proximity of high pressure.

RH percentages look to be drier on both Sunday and Monday 
afternoons, with in the 30s expected across the lowlands. Winds
will be relatively light though, so fire weather concerns 
remain low.

A cold front is still projected to approach from the west sometime 
late Monday bringing with it a chance for rain and an isolated 
thunderstorm or two. Chance PoPs will gradually increase from west 
to east late Monday afternoon into the night, with likely PoPs 
arriving very early Tuesday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 645 AM Friday...

High pressure east of the area continues VFR conditions for 
much if not all of the TAF period, through 12Z Saturday. There 
may be afternoon cumulus in the mountains. Stratus or low
stratocumulus may once again develop along the spine of the 
Appalachians tonight. This time, MVFR stratocu may reach BKW 
late.

Otherwise, patchy mid and high cloud today will lower to high 
stratocu tonight, with isolated to scattered showers, as a warm 
front approaches from the southwest. The best chance for a 
shower is during the predawn hours north, where a rumble of 
thunder is not entirely out of the question.

Light northeast to southeast surface flow early this morning 
will become light southeast this morning, and then strengthen 
and become gusty late this morning through tonight, into the 
15-20 kt range. Gusty southeast flow at BKW to around 20 kts today,
increases to around 25 kts tonight. Light south flow aloft today will
become light to moderate south to southwest tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...
     
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.
     
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: gusty winds, including timing of onset, may
vary. Timing of onset of MVFR ceilings in the mountains tonight
may also vary.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
Patchy IFR possible along the mountains early Saturday with 
stratus.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK/TRM/LTC
NEAR TERM...FK/TRM
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...TRM

Ag Weather Center, Department of Biosystems & Agricultural Engineering, University of Kentucky