University of Kentucky Agricultural Weather Center Serving Kentucky residents	On the World Wide Web at: http://wwwagwx.ca.uky.edu/

957 
AWUS83 KJKL 070910
RWSJKL

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-080915-

Regional Weather Summary
National Weather Service Jackson KY
510 AM EDT Thu Jul 7 2022

08Z sfc analysis shows a wavy frontal boundary just to the north
of the JKL CWA placing the area firmly in the warm sector of a
larger weather pattern. This has made for another warm and muggy 
night with a few nocturnal storms ongoing just south of the
Tennessee border. The thicker clouds over the area last evening 
have thinned and cleared to the point that abundant sfc moisture 
in place has manifested in areas of fog with a few dense patches
noted - primarily on the ridgetops. Otherwise, temperatures (and 
dewpoints) are fairly uniform across the area in the upper 60s and
lower 70s, amid light winds. 

The models are in good agreement aloft through the short term 
portion of the forecast. They all depict the persistent mid level
ridge holding on for one more day before yielding to increasing
shortwave troughing to the north and shifting its core westward.
Even today, this ridge is insufficiently strong to keep energy
from dropping through northeast parts of the CWA likely helping to
spawn renewed convection through the area later today. 5h heights
then further decline aloft on Friday when a fairly strong impulse 
moves into the Ohio Valley - brushing by to the northeast during
that afternoon. Given the small model spread through the short
term did not deviate far from the blended NBM solution aside from
incorporating some mesoscale specifics from the CAMs consensus 
into the evening part of the forecast. 

Sensible weather will feature our warm, humid, and often stormy
period of weather continuing through the end of the work week.
Strong, and potentially severe, storms will probably develop later
this afternoon mainly over the Cumberland Valley. The storms will
be fueled by high levels of CAPE over the area and ample moisture.
Additionally, the DCAPE will be near 1000 j/kg over eastern
Kentucky this afternoon prompting a potential for damaging wind 
gusts while very high PW air supports the threat of excessive 
rainfall - especially where any cell training sets up. The 
instability will fade into the evening and with it the threat for 
severe weather by thunderstorm chances, diminished, remain. Strong
storm then likely return on Friday with a continued threat for 
heavy rainfall and slightly better upper level support. 

Temperatures will be quite warm again today and Friday with high 
humidities pushing heat indices toward 100 degrees, though the 
convection expectations make this far from a certainty for many 
places. Again tonight we can anticipate muggy and warm conditions 
with areas of fog developing and favoring the spots that see the 
best rain today. An SPS has been issued for the potential of high 
heat indices across the area this afternoon, as well. 

The main adjustments to the NBM starting point were to incorporate 
some enhanced details into the PoPs from the CAMs consensus into 
the evening - favoring the Cumberland Valley with the highest
values. 

$$

GREIF

Ag Weather Center, Department of Biosystems & Agricultural Engineering, University of Kentucky