561 FXUS06 KWBC 202002 PMDMRD PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 300 PM EST TUE NOVEMBER 20 2018 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 26 - 30 2018 TODAY'S ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A PREDICTED RIDGE IS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. TROUGHING IS PREDICTED OVER WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA, THE BERING SEA AND THE ALEUTIANS. TODAY'S MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED PRIMARILY ON ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE ECMWF AND GEFS MODELS. THE 500-HPA MANUAL BLEND INDICATES ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA, WHILE BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS, SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS. ARCTIC OSCILLATION (AO) INDEX IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEGATIVE DURING THE NEXT 10 TO 14 DAYS. TROUGHING AND ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW LEAD TO ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. RIDGING AND ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS INCREASE THE PROBABILITY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MOST THE WESTERN CONUS. THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF MAINE AHEAD OF A TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY OVER ALASKA, UNDER ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WITH ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY OVER MOST OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS AHEAD OF A PREDICTED RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE GREAT LAKES, AND THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PREDICTED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CENTRAL CONUS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTIAN WEST, DUE TO PREDICTED MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, DUE TO FRONTAL ACTIVITY EARLY IN THE PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO LIKELY FOR MOST OF ALASKA, AHEAD OF A PREDICTED TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 15% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 15% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 15% OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED CIRCULATION PATTERN, OFFSET BY SOME UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECASTS. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 28 - DEC 04, 2018 DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY PREDICT DEAMPLIFICATION AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER THE CONUS FROM THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE 500-HPA MANUAL BLEND INDICATES POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS, AND NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER PARTS OF THE WEST COAST, MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS DUE TO FORECAST TROUGHING OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER MUCH OF THE THE WESTERN CONUS, DUE TO FORECAST RIDGING OVER THE REGION. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY OVER ALASKA UNDER ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY FLOW. ENHANCED PACIFIC FLOW INCREASES PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THE WEST COAST AND EXTENDING TO MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN, AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, PARTS OF THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS, THE SOUTHEAST AND THE NORTHEAST, CONSISTENT WITH DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECAST TOOLS. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, ALSO CONSISTENT WITH DYNAMICAL FORECAST TOOLS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF ALASKA DUE TO PREDICTED TROUGHING OVER THE REGION. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY FOR PARTS OF EASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION FORECAST TOOLS. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 15% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 15% OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 50% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG THE FORECAST TOOLS FORECASTER: Y. FAN NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON DECEMBER 20. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19791112 - 19641120 - 19761130 - 19931106 - 19861112 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19791112 - 19641120 - 19971118 - 19761130 - 19931107 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR NOV 26 - 30 2018 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A N UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO N B NEW MEXICO N B N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B B OKLAHOMA B B N TEXAS B B S TEXAS B B W TEXAS N B MINNESOTA B A IOWA B A MISSOURI B B ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B B WISCONSIN B A ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN B A INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY B N TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B B NEW YORK N A VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE A A MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA B N FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR NOV 28 - DEC 04, 2018 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A A WYOMING N A UTAH N A ARIZONA A A COLORADO N A NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA N A NEBRASKA N A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B N N TEXAS N N S TEXAS N A W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA N A IOWA B A MISSOURI B A ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN N A ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN N N INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY B N TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B A NEW YORK B N VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE N N MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$