943 FXUS06 KWBC 231916 PMDMRD Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 300 PM EDT Mon May 23 2022 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 29 - JUN 02, 2022 Todays model solutions are in good agreement on the forecast mid-level circulation pattern across the North American region. Ridges and positive 500-hPa height anomalies are forecast over Mainland Alaska and to the west of the CONUS over the northeastern Pacific. A trough is forecast over the western CONUS and a ridge is forecast over the eastern CONUS in recent ensemble mean and high resolution model forecasts. The GEFS ensemble mean predicts a slightly deeper trough over the western CONUS relative to the ECMWF ensemble mean. Above normal temperatures are favored over much of Alaska, except for extreme northern Mainland Alaska, the Alaska Panhandle, and parts of the Aleutians, under positive 500-hPa height anomalies. Below normal temperatures are favored over the southern Alaska Panhandle southeastward to the northwestern CONUS, the Central and Northern Rockies, and the Northern Plains, under the forecast trough. Above normal temperatures are favored for parts of California, under positive 500-hPa height anomalies ahead of the ridge. Above normal temperatures are also favored for the Southern Plains and the eastern CONUS, under a predicted ridge. Below normal precipitation is slightly favored for the Aleutians and the southwestern coast of Mainland Alaska, under a predicted ridge. Above normal precipitation is slightly favored for interior Mainland Alaska consistent with dynamical model precipitation tools. Above normal precipitation is favored for the southern Alaska Panhandle, as a low pressure system is forecast to approach the coast during the period in most model solutions. Below normal precipitation is favored for parts of California and the western Great Basin, ahead of the forecast ridge. Above normal precipitation is favored for the Pacific Northwest, the Northern and Central Rockies, the Northern and Central Plains, and the western Great Lakes region, under and ahead of the forecast trough. The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 30% of Today's 0z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 5% of Today's operational 0z GFS centered on Day 8, 30% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 5% of Today's operational 0z ECMWF centered on Day 8, and 30% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Average, 3 out of 5, due to good model agreement, offset by some differences among the temperature and precipitation forecast tools. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 31 - JUN 06, 2022 The predicted circulation pattern for the 8-14 day period is generally similar to the forecast pattern for the 6-10 day period, but with a reduction in mid-level height anomalies in the ensemble means and the manual blend due to a significant increase in uncertainty. Positive height anomalies are indicated over the Aleutians with slightly positive anomalies extending northeastward over Mainland Alaska in the manual blend. Negative 500-hPa height anomalies are forecast over the Alaska Panhandle in the ensemble means of the ECMWF, GEFS and Canadian models. Weak troughing and negative 500-hPa height anomalies extend into the northwestern CONUS in the week-2 period. A weak ridge and positive 500-hPa height anomalies are depicted over much of the eastern CONUS. Near average mid-level heights are forecast over the Gulf Coast. Above normal temperatures are slightly favored over much of the Aleutians and Mainland Alaska under slightly positive 500-hPa height anomalies. Below normal temperatures are favored for the southern Alaska Panhandle, under negative 500-hPa height anomalies. Below normal temperatures are favored for the northwestern and north-central CONUS under the predicted trough, early in the period. Above normal temperatures are favored for parts of California, ahead of the predicted ridge early in the period. Above normal temperatures are favored for eastern areas of the Southwest, the Southern Plains, the Lower Mississippi Valley, and much of the eastern CONUS, consistent with the temperature consolidation tool. Above normal precipitation is slightly favored for interior Mainland Alaska, consistent with the dynamical model forecasts, under southerly flow. Above normal precipitation is favored for the southern Alaska Panhandle, as a system is forecast to approach the coast early in the period. Above normal precipitation is favored for parts of the Pacific Northwest, under a predicted trough. Below normal precipitation is favored for parts of California and the western Great Basin, ahead of the ridge. With increasing uncertainty during the period, above normal precipitation is slightly favored for most areas of the CONUS to the east of the Rocky Mountains, excluding parts of the Northeast, consistent with the precipitation consolidation tool. Probabilities of above normal precipitation are increased over the western Gulf Coast region and the southern Florida Peninsula, with increased moisture flow from the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic. The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 35% of Today's 0z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 35% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 30% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Below average, 2 out of 5, due to predicted weak mean 500-hPa anomalies across most of the forecast domain and weak signals in the temperature and precipitation tools over most regions. FORECASTER: D Collins Notes: Automated forecasts are issued on Saturday and Sunday. Occasionally manual intervention is necessary to address quality control and consistency issues. In these cases, forecasts are manually drawn but a full discussion is not issued. The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as that in the tables: A-above N-near normal B-below The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "N"). Historical average values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "f"). Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "n"). Historical median values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "inches"). Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons. In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no precipitation. The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in the climate outlooks. The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on June 16. Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates: 19810510 - 19830516 - 20090512 - 20040522 - 19670504 Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates: 19810511 - 19830516 - 20090511 - 19900502 - 19670504 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for May 29 - Jun 02, 2022 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO B A NEVADA N B W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A UTAH B A ARIZONA N N COLORADO B A NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A NEBRASKA N A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N MINNESOTA B A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A N VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN N B AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A A AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL N N 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for May 31 - Jun 06, 2022 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON B N NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO B N NEVADA N B W MONTANA B N E MONTANA B N WYOMING B N UTAH B N ARIZONA N N COLORADO B N NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A NEBRASKA B A KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A N MINNESOTA B A IOWA B A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN B A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN A B AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL B A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$