005 FEUS45 KABQ 041204 FWEABQ NMZALL-312359- NEW MEXICO EXTENDED FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK (EXPERIMENTAL) NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 1000 PM MST THU DEC 28 2000 ...NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED INTO SPRING... DISCUSSION...The La Nina event which persisted through all of 2000 is forecast to weaken and dissipate by spring of 2001. As a result, long range forecasts call for near normal precipitation and near or slightly above average temperatures across the state of New Mexico this winter, with conditions near climatic normals into the summer. It is noteworthy that long term weather patterns tend to become more variable as La Nina and El Nino patterns weaken and sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific trend towards normal. As a result, the overall confidence rating of this outlook is moderate to high through early spring, but moderate to low thereafter. Currently, observations from six major river basins show the mountain snowpack is near to slightly above normal on a statewide basis. Liquid equivalent values range from 135 % to near 180 % of normal in the high Sangre de Cristo's and the upper Pecos basin, with values elsewhere from 80 % to near 100 % of normal. This represents a wholesale increase of 60 % to 90 % as compared to this time last year in most areas. The upper Pecos basin is most changed since December 1999, showing an increase of 135 %. At the same time, all areas are showing above to much above average total liquid equivalent precipitation since October 1, 2000. In hindsight, it was several strong late autumn storms which bolstered these numbers and put down a significant early season snowpack. Since then, storms have been much more sporadic, but colder temperatures have maintained the snow across the high terrain. Snowfall from a storm on December 26 was likely a significant contributor to the anomalously high numbers in the Sangre de Cristo and upper Pecos basins. Appropriately, the Palmer Drought Index currently shows that the drought from this past summer has been completely relieved statewide. Approximate liquid water equivalent of snowpack (relative to normal) as of Dec. 28, 2000... % of Normal % Change Since Area / River Basin Managed Land Snowpack Late Dec. '99 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Sangre de Cristo's Carson/Santa Fe NF 135 % + 83 % Pecos Carson/Santa Fe NF 179 % + 135 % Rio Chama Carson/Santa Fe NF 103 % + 86 % Jemez Santa Fe NF 81 % + 62 % Zuni/Bluewater Cibola NF 91 % + 59 % San Francisco/Gila Gila NF 83 % + 78 % Current data indicate that the state will continue to have near normal precipitation this winter and this trend may continue through early summer. With this in mind, the 2001 fire season will likely be more average as well. Of significance is that the live fuel component will almost certainly be less of a factor than in 2000, since the lack of drought stress will inhibit unusually low live fuel moisture values. Instead, the fire season is expected to be driven more by the reaction of the dead fuels to spring rainfall and snowmelt, and the normal spring and early summer trends in the live fuels. Due to the dissipating La Nina pattern, confidence in the long term precipitation outlook decreases incrementally from spring into summer. With this in mind, the highly variable spring weather patterns will likely control the overall fire season, with the lack of preexisting drought conditions being the only near certainty. This outlook is scheduled to be updated in the last week of January, 2001. C. Maxwell -------------------------------------------------------------------- NOTE: The intent of this experimental product is to utilize observed and forecast weather conditions along with climatological data to provide a general long term planning tool for wildland fire management agencies in New Mexico. Data used includes long term monthly and seasonal forecasts, current snowpack/snow water equivalent values, and some corresponding historical reference to the severity of past fire seasons. The basic premise is that warmer and/or drier than normal conditions through the winter months will lead to below average snowpack by spring. This in turn will likely lead to an early melt-off and a period of higher overall fire danger during the normally windy and dry months of spring and early summer. These outlooks will be most applicable to mountain areas with heavier fuel types, as the finer fuels at lower elevations are not heavily influenced by mountain snowpack.