299 FXUS63 KPAH 102100 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 300 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - An upper level disturbance moves through the region tonight into Tuesday bringing rain, sleet, freezing rain and snow. A winter weather advisory has been issued for portions of the area for light snow accumulations. - A second disturbance comes through Wednesday to Wednesday night. Temperatures are warmer and looks to be mostly rain for much of the region with freezing rain and sleet possible for portions of SEMO, and southern Illinois. - A third system comes through Friday night through the weekend. This system would be all rain as temperatures warm significantly on Friday and Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 300 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Surface high pressure extends from the western US/Canada border southeast into the midwest this afternoon. Flow aloft is mostly zonal, with a few disturbances noted across the southern Canadian provinces and across the southwest US. Areas of mid level vorticity are expected to track eastward with a baroclinic zone across the Tennessee Valley into Tuesday. Precipitation will surge northward late tonight into Tuesday. Canadian high pressure to the north will keep colder air in place which should result in some snow mainly across parts of SEMO, southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, and portions of western Kentucky. Warmer air aloft to the south should keep mostly rain for the rest of the area. An upper level jet streak along and just north of the Quad State should favor sufficient upward motion for the potential for moderate rainfall at times especially across our southern zones (western Kentucky, SEMO). Forecast soundings north of the Ohio river show profiles that favor snow, and possibly some heavier snow at times. This would be especially true if we see any banding due to frontogenetic forcing. Cross sections also reveal this area to have strong omega within the DGZ and nearly upright ageostrophic circulations supporting strong upward motion. The tricky part of the forecast will be the amounts. Surface temperatures will be marginal, generally around or just below freezing mainly along and north of the Ohio River. South of this, temperatures should be mostly too warm for snow. Assuming everything comes together as projected, the areas most likely to see the higher snowfall amounts would be from around Bollinger/Perry counties in SEMO eastward through Marion, IL, and over to the Evansville, IN and Owensboro, KY area. This is also where the HREF is highlighting an area of greater than 70% probability of +2". While a broad 1-2" is forecast in these areas, there is potential for higher amounts of around 3" across our eastern zones in northwest Kentucky. At this point still thinking impacts will be largely localized at best with a few slick roadways possible early and most snow accumulations will be in grass or on elevated surfaces. Refer to the winter weather advisory for additional information. Snow should taper off from west to east Tuesday night just ahead of the next weather system expected Wednesday. An upper level trof will approach the region on Wednesday/Wednesday night allowing a surface low to track from the lower Mississippi River Valley northeast through western Tennessee and the Pennyrile of western Kentucky before racing off toward the Great Lakes. This system will be warmer as the surface low draws warmer air northward. While most of the region will be warm enough for all rain, northwest portions of the region may be cold enough for sleet or freezing rain with light icing amounts possible. Any precipitation will move out of the region by early Thursday. High pressure settles in across the region for Thursday and into Friday. Highs on Thursday will likely struggle to reach the mid to upper 30's. We begin to see moderating temperatures by Friday as the high moves off to the east allowing winds to turn toward the south ahead of the next system. The weekend will feature another upper level trof that will bring an area of low pressure and unsettled weather to the region this weekend. Temperatures will likely be warm enough for rain, although a brief change over to snow may be possible on the back side of the system but at this time this doesn't appear to bring any wintry accumulations with it. It will bring additional heavier rains though which may lead to river rises through the coming days. Highs on Saturday will warm into the lower 50's but look to crash back into the 30's for early next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1135 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Conditions will deteriorate late tonight and continue into Tuesday. VFR currently will continue until around 6z or after when precipitation moves north and east across the terminals. Best chances of snow will be across northern terminals with vsby and cig restrictions. Vsby may drop to below 2SM in the morning hours as the precipitation rate increases. Cigs may drop into the IFR/MVFR range. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Tuesday for ILZ081>091. MO...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Tuesday for MOZ076-086-087-100-107. IN...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight CST /1 AM EST/ tonight to 6 PM CST /7 PM EST/ Tuesday for INZ081-082-085>088. KY...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Tuesday for KYZ014-015-018>020. && $$ DISCUSSION...AD AVIATION...AD