246 FXUS63 KJKL 280800 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 400 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures will remain seasonably cool through Friday morning, with one more night of near or sub-freezing temperatures and frost returning for most valley areas late tonight. - A warming trend then ensues Friday afternoon and continues through early next week. - PoPs start to creep back in from the northwest this weekend and continue to ramp up through early next week. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday) Issued at 320 AM EDT THU MAR 28 2024 The latest upper level map features troughing aligned from the Great Lakes region through the northern Gulf of Mexico, with ridging aligned near the Rockies, while another storm system rolls towards the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, a frontal boundary is stalled near the Appalachians, while high pressure extends from the southern Plains through the Ohio Valley. Some high clouds are streaming aloft across eastern Kentucky, with lightening winds and a cooler air mass in place allowing for temperatures as cool as the lower 30s currently near the Bluegrass region as well as west of I-75. The trough currently aligned near the Mississippi Valley will work east today, crossing the central and southern Appalachians this afternoon. One final push of short wave energy will move southeast from the Great Lakes through portions of the Upper Ohio Valley and New England tonight into early Friday morning, brushing our north with some mid-level clouds for a time. Otherwise, heights will then rebound across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys through the rest of Friday, as a modest ridge axis moves in from the Mississippi Valley. At the surface, high pressure will slide southeast with time, with the center becoming more confined to the Deep South by early Friday, and then near Florida by the end of the day. Dry weather will be maintained across the area through the short term, with temperatures seasonably cooler through Friday morning, before warm air advection kicks in through Friday afternoon, with temperatures returning to above normal. High clouds will continue to be seen through this morning, before these exit from west to east this afternoon. Model MOS guidance and forecast soundings continue to support the 10th percentile or slightly less of the blended guidance for the dew points this afternoon. The surface high will be more centered to our south tonight, with somewhat of a pressure gradient set up across the north. This, combined with the aforementioned mid-level clouds that brush our northern counties, may temper the lows a tad, with valleys reaching into the low to mid 30s, while ridges stay in the lower 40s. Southern valleys should be a touch colder, with isolated places getting down to around 30 degrees. Readings will make a run for a 40 degree diurnal recovery in some places on Friday, as breezier west southwest winds bring in warmer air, along with mostly clear skies in place. Dew points will modify somewhat, but deeper mixing should yield values closer to the 10th percentile of the blended guidance once again. Consequently, also stayed closer to the 75th percentile for the high temperatures, with a few spots touching the 70 degree mark. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 400 AM EDT THU MAR 28 2024 The large scale upper level pattern in the extended will begin with ridging in place at the surface across the Gulf of Mexico and southeastern CONUS, extending northward into the Tennessee and southern Ohio Valleys, with ridging aloft in place from the Tennessee Valley northward into the Great Lakes and south central Canada. A large and well developed trough should be exiting the northeastern CONUS and heading out to sea, while another strong system moves onshore along the west coast and Pacific Northwest. This pattern will shift eastward with time and will feature a fast moving shortwave moving out of the northern Plains and into Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions over the weekend. This system will bring the first rain chances to eastern Kentucky late Friday night into early Saturday morning. A weak cold front associated with the shortwave will sink slowly southward and into our area Saturday night, and will bring not only shower chances, but some thunder chances as well. The surface front is then forecast to drift northward and southward over our area heading into the first of next week, with persistent rain chances accompanying it as is does so. Another stronger system is then expected to move in from the northwest Monday night and Tuesday, and could bring widespread rain showers and scattered thunderstorms to the area as it moves through. Increasing southerly flow south and east of the two aforementioned low pressure systems and cold fronts will transport warm moist air from the Gulf of Mexico into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. This will lead to extremely warm temperatures that could easily top out in the 70s for area for several days. The warmest readings are on tap for Sunday and Monday, as southerly to southwesterly winds strengthen ahead of the incoming systems, and before the more widespread precipitation moves in. We should still see highs in the lower 70s on Saturday and Tuesday, in spite of any rain and clouds that move in. Once the second weather system, and its surface cold front, move through the area on Wednesday, we should see a big drop in temperatures, and much cooler air spills in behind the departing front. In fact, we may see highs only reaching the upper 50s on Wednesday, as winds shift to the west and northwest Tuesday night and Wednesday. Nightly lows should be mild on average, with nightly mins ranging from the 50s and lower 60s on the warmest nights, and falling to the upper 30s to 40s on the coolest nights. The primary weather concerns in the extended will be the potential for thunderstorms next Monday and especially Tuesday, as a cold front moves through. The latest forecast soundings are showing some instability present as the front moves through the first of next week, Monday night and Tuesday in particular, so thunderstorms seem like a good bet during that time. However, with the models still having a bit of trouble resolving the amount of moisture and instability that will be present the first of next week, storm strength and precipitation amounts will remain uncertain for now. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT THU MAR 28 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Some patchy IFR fog will be possible near some of the river valleys closer to dawn; however, this should steer clear of the terminals. High clouds will gradually thin from west to east this afternoon, with a few mid-level clouds then invading from the north towards the end of the period. North winds of around 5 kts will increase to 5 to 10 kts and back to the northwest from late this morning through this afternoon, before diminishing by dusk. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...GEOGERIAN