078 FXUS63 KJKL 102042 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 342 PM EST Mon Feb 10 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - An active weather pattern will continue, with multiple weather systems over the next week. - The threat of heavy rainfall will return periodically, with the greatest threats being Tuesday into Tuesday night, late Wednesday into Wednesday night, and this weekend. - The greatest potential for accumulating snow is from around dawn Tuesday into Tuesday night, mainly for areas north of a line from Mt. Vernon to Pikeville. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1119 AM EST MON FEB 10 2025 Minor tweaks have been made to blend late morning obs into the forecast. Currently evaluating new model data for possible upgrade to Winter Storm Warning for system arriving late tonight and early Tuesday. UPDATE Issued at 734 AM EST MON FEB 10 2025 Made some minor updates to Sky grids through early this afternoon utilizing latest satellite CAMS models. Otherwise, the forecast is on track. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 420 AM EST MON FEB 10 2025 Current surface analysis is rather quiet across eastern Kentucky. Surface high pressure exists over the area with a few passing mid- level clouds. To our southeast, a passing surface low exists but result in much than increasing clouds toward morning. Today: Surface high pressure will exist across the area. As a result, clearing skies and warming temperatures are expected. Highs will climb into the low-40s along the I-64 corridor with warming temperatures into the upper-40s down by the Tennessee state line. However, to the west, a cold front is forecast to be diving down across the CONUS from a surface low that's moving through the Great Lakes. At this same time, a surface low will eject out out of the Desert Southwest and quickly move northeast toward the CWA. Tonight through Tuesday: The aforementioned surface features will approach the area with increasing PoP chances developing from the southeast to the northwest beginning after midnight. Through the overnight, PoP will increase with areawide precipitation occurring by Tuesday morning. Thermal profiles support an onset of rain but as colder air filters in along the cold front, rain will change over to snow. The coldest air will be along and north of the Mountain Parkway. Areas between the Parkway and the Hal Rogers/KY-80 thoroughfare will see a rain/snow mix with areas along and south of the Hal Rogers/KY-80 corridor seeing all rain. With this system, accumulating snow is forecast in the areas that are seeing the coldest air the longest (along and north of the Mountain Parkway); with this forecast package, forecast snowfall totals range from 2 to 4" along the I-64 corridor, with locally higher amounts possible depending where snow-banding develops, and 1 to 3" between I-64 and the Mountain Parkway. Light accumulations will be possible between the Mountain Parkway and the Hal Rogers/KY-80 corridor. Where rain is expected to develop and stay rain, (areas in a Flood Watch), rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3" of rain could lead to increased hydro issues in the Cumberland River and Upper Kentucky River Basins. These accumulations are subject to change depending on where the final rain/snow line sets up. Also, any increase in QPF or colder temperatures in the north could lead to increase snowfall totals. Tuesday Night through Wednesday morning: The cold front and southeastern surface low will push off to the east. Decreasing PoP chances are expected after 00Z/Wednesday. Colder air will continue to remain in place across the north but with the approach of another surface low, warm air will remain locked in across the CWA and rain will continue to through the end of the forecast period. Overall, the period will be highlighted by a strong cold front and surface low coming together to bring increasing chances of accumulating snow and moderate to heavy rainfall. Instances of heavy snow will be possible across the I-64 corridor and instances of hydro issues across the Cumberland and headwaters of the Kentucky and Big Sandy basins. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 341 PM EST MON FEB 10 2025 The active forecast continues through much of the extended period. We start Wednesday morning with a dissipating front and boundary set up across the far southeast portion of the state, and a new low pressure system gaining strength to our southwest. It will be located over the Lower Mississippi Valley as of 18Z Wednesday, quickly shifting northeast and traversing western/central Kentucky during the evening hours. As it shifts to the north, an associated cold front will shift eastward through the eastern half of the state, exiting by Thursday morning. During this time, a strong upper level jet will develop and bring increased SW flow into the region, also enhancing the moisture advection from the Gulf. Expect precipitation to begin filling back in across the CWA in response to the system during the day Wednesday, continuing through Wednesday night with the passing cold front, then exiting Thursday. Given the increased SW flow, especially ahead of the cold front, the temperatures will be warming Wednesday and Wednesday night, keeping conditions above freezing. This will keep the precip type as rain, with the current forecasted totals between 0.3 and 1.0 inch (highest south). After the system exits Thursday, a strong area of high pressure will move in from the west. This will keep us dry through Friday, which will likely be the only dry day of the forecast period. This high pressure will quickly pass over the state and will be exiting to the east, reaching the Atlantic Coast by 6Z Saturday. Meanwhile, yet another low pressure system will be making its away across the Southern Plains Friday night. During the day Saturday it will shift eastward into the Southern Mississippi Valley, before turning northeast and crossing the Commonwealth Saturday night. The whole system will finally exit to the northeast and move eastward out of the state by late Sunday. There is quite a bit of concern with QPF and flooding potential with this system. First, it will be following on the heels of two other impactful precipitation events, so the ground will already be well saturated. Next, a strong jet streak is expected to set up, resulting in strong SW and a deep swath of moisture advecting the Gulf into the Ohio Valley. Finally, the strong SW flow will keep the temps warm enough to support all rain again through much of this event. We are still quite a ways out from this system, so expect it to evolve and change over the coming days. However, models are going pretty strong on the QPF right now, especially the GFS, though there has definitely been fluctuations from run to run. WPC is showing anywhere between 2 inches (north) and over 3 inches (south) of rainfall between Friday night and Sunday evening. Flood watches are already in effect for the near-term system, but expect there will be concerns continuing, and even mounting, as we get to the weekend. Cold air will advect back into the region behind this departing system, which could mean that some of the lingering precip Sunday could transition to a light snow before tapering off. Again, confidence this far out in the forecast isn't the highest, but as of now this looks to be unimpactful, especially compared to the rainfall. If the models do hold true, we may finally get a good break from the rain after this system departs Monday into Tuesday. Something to potentially look forward to, so long as it holds. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning) ISSUED AT 549 AM EST MON FEB 10 2025 Terminals have improved to VFR minus a few MVFR clouds hanging around KSYM. Within the next hour or so, those low CIGS will dissipate and KSYM will improve the VFR. Terminals will remain VFR through much of the TAF period but an approaching system will cause terminals to fall back into MVFR after 06Z/Tuesday. Rain is expected at KLOZ and KSME, RASN will be possible at KSJS and KJKL and finally SN at KSYM all sites beginning roughly after 08Z/Tuesday and continuing through the end of the period. Lastly, winds will be light and variable through the period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Storm Warning from 1 AM to 11 PM EST Tuesday for KYZ044- 050>052-058>060-104-106>109-111. Flood Watch from 7 PM EST this evening through Wednesday morning for KYZ068-069-079-080-083>088-110-112>118-120. Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 11 PM EST Tuesday for KYZ068-069-079-080-088-110-112>120. && $$ UPDATE...HAL/VORST SHORT TERM...VORST LONG TERM...JMW AVIATION...VORST