343 FXUS61 KRLX 051043 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 643 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level waves bring showers and storms at times this weekend. Active weather continues into next week, with daily chances for showers and storms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 640 AM Sunday... Minor changes made to PoPs to align with the current track of showers in the area this morning. Otherwise, the forecast generally remains on track. As of 350 AM Sunday... Showers and isolated storms continue to progress across the area as a shortwave lifts northward early this morning. Some areas of fog are also developing in locations where skies have at least partially cleared and winds have calmed. Early morning fog should dissipate later this morning. A brief lull in precipitation may occur around daybreak, then activity is expected to pick up once again as instability becomes moderate to strong for the afternoon and evening. Meanwhile, a strong system pivoting over Canada steers a cold front towards the area. The front should reach the CWA late today and then ease eastward overnight, with showers and storms remaining a possibility out ahead of and along the front. SPC has included the northwestern quadrant of the CWA in a marginal severe weather risk for later today as isolated storms be capable of producing damaging winds or perhaps hail. Heavy downpours within storms could also cause localized flash flooding if they occur over locations that have already been subjected to high rainfall amounts. High temperatures for today are expected to range from mid 70s to low 80s in the lowlands and 60s to 70s in the mountains. Temperatures will then lower back into the 50s to 60s overnight. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 AM Sunday... Key Points: * Unsettled weather opens up the work week after a brief reprieve late Sunday night into early Monday morning. * Temperatures gradually climb through the week, contributing to warm and muggy conditions that will help daily storm development. After a brief lull in activity from late Sunday night into early Monday morning, active weather returns in earnest for the start of the new work week. Upper level ridging will be swept offshore as a trough and associated shortwave energy encroach from the west. This will usher in a surface southern stream disturbance through the course of the day Monday, making it as far north as the northern panhandle of West Virginia by the evening timeframe. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler in the wake of the end of weekend cold frontal passage, but dewpoints in the low to mid 60s will ensure an unstable environment for convection to prosper once more during peak heating hours on Monday. As has been the case the past several days, additional rainfall will continue to deplete flash flood guidance, and may impose localized concerns pending radar trends. Unsettled weather remains intact on Tuesday as a developing system in the Upper Midwest latches onto the lingering southern stream disturbance loitering about along what will become a warm front. This will yield afternoon temperatures to climb back into the 70s and 80s and maintain the humid airmass still parked overhead. Shower and thunderstorm chances flourish once more through the day Tuesday, with similar hazards to monitor of local flash flooding and lightning within sprouting thunderstorms. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 315 AM Sunday... Key Points: * Daily chances for showers and storms remain present for the second half of the work week. * Strong to severe storms may be possible Wednesday and Thursday, along with the growing concern for flash flooding. * Cold front anticipated to sweep through by the end of the work week, but active weather remains even in its wake. The daily chance for showers and storms shows no sign of giving up during the extended portion of the forecast. This will be under the guise of an upper level low over the Rockies continuing to pump moisture and shortwave energy through the heart of the country and into the Central Appalachians. A surface warm front will impose a steady climb in high temperatures, maxing out in the mid to upper 80s by Wednesday. Diurnally driven convection prevails within this warm and humid atmosphere, and could garner strong to severe characteristics by midweek as instability becomes more established over the area. Heading into Thursday, convection coverage will become more prevalent as a cold front enters into the Ohio Valley. With warm and humid conditions preceding the boundary, coupled with increasing ascent as the front approaches, strong to severe weather could be present once more Thursday afternoon into the evening. However, models are still undecided on the placement of the front during optimal peak heating hours. Hydro concerns will also remain at the forefront of weather hazards as soil conditions continue to be tested by day to day heavy downpours from passing showers and storms. A grand total of over two inches of rain could be feasible for the forecast area between the time of writing (Sunday) and into next weekend. The front is progged to sweep through sometime between Thursday night and Friday, but the post-frontal environment will still remain unstable in which active weather rolls into the weekend as well. Temperatures will trend cooler in the wake of the front. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 640 AM Sunday... Restrictions due to valley fog and some low stratus along the mountains are expected to improve early this morning while a lull in precipitation occurs. Shower and storm activity should increase again during the day, with most robust storms occurring this afternoon and evening. Isolated storms could be capable of producing strong wind gusts or hail. While VFR is generally expected outside of any convection today, periodic reductions to MVFR/IFR will be possible during heavier downpours or storms. Precipitation continues into tonight as a cold front eases across the area, then flight conditions may deteriorate in low clouds or fog late in the TAF period. 5-12kt winds are expected to veer from southerly to a west/southwest direction during the day. Winds become light and variable for tonight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of precipitation may vary from the forecast today. MVFR/IFR VSBY restrictions are possible in heavier showers or any storms. Extent/intensity of restrictions due to fog/stratus tonight may also vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 05/05/24 UTC 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 EDT 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY L M M M H H H H M M M H EKN CONSISTENCY M L H M M H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H L M H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H H H AFTER 12Z MONDAY... IFR conditions possible at times in showers and thunderstorms into mid next week. Fog and/or low stratus are possible Monday night. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MEK/JLB NEAR TERM...JLB SHORT TERM...MEK LONG TERM...MEK AVIATION...JLB