865 FXUS66 KMTR 281124 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 424 AM PDT Sun Apr 28 2024 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 1227 AM PDT Sun Apr 28 2024 High pressure brings quiet weather and slowly warming temperatures this week. Breezy onshore winds will keep temperatures along the coast cooler however. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1227 AM PDT Sun Apr 28 2024 High pressure will remain offshore as a weak cold front slowly dissipates across the Bay Area today. The pressure gradient will remain relatively robust, thus supporting breezy northerly winds today particularly over the local waters and along the coast. Patches of stratus will again develop within marine influenced areas before mixing out during the late morning to early afternoon hours. High temperatures will range from around 60 on the beaches to the mid 70s for the warmest portions of interior Monterey County and for areas bordering the Sacramento Valley. Lows tonight will dip into the 40s && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Saturday) Issued at 245 PM PDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Longwave pattern shows more zonal flow setting up through at least midweek. Zonal flow aloft will keep more of the same: subtle warming (inland areas), dry conditions, patchy night and morning stratus, and breezy onshore flow. Speaking of winds, probabilistic guidance really highlights northerly winds over the coastal waters Monday and Tuesday. Current forecast has trended upward with regards to winds as well. Still not strong enough for a wind advisory for the coast, but gusts of 40mph plus will possible. Probably not the best beach days for Monday/Tuesday. Elsewhere away from the coast there is a high likelihood (greater than 70%) of seeing gusts over 25 mph. The second half of the work week will feature additional warming with far interior location eclipsing 80 degrees. Still breezy out of the NW so temperatures will hold mostly steady along the coast and bays. The warm up and breezy NW flow finally ease next weekend as the zonal flow becomes more amplified with approaching upper trough. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 424 AM PDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Isolated patches of stratus exist from the Golden Gate southward to Monterey County, with the evolution of stratus somewhat unpredictable. Model output has pulled back on stratus coverage at SJC this morning, with a TEMPO for MVFR stratus now. Clearing of stratus should take place after sunrise. Breezy and gusty westerly winds will set up this afternoon, with gusts up to around 20-30 knots at the terminals. Winds diminish late this evening, with patchy stratus coverage developing Monday morning. Vicinity of SFO... Periods of MVFR ceilings through sunrise. Breezy west-northwest winds will build through the day with gusts up to 35 knots, and around a 10-20% probability of gusts over 35 knots this afternoon and evening. Winds diminish late this evening. Not expecting stratus development in the terminal area this evening into Monday morning. SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals... Patchy stratus occasionally impacting the terminals, continuing through the morning. breezy onshore winds developing this afternoon and evening with gusts up to 20 knots. Patchy stratus returns to the region tonight and will migrate over MRY through the nighttime hours. && .MARINE... (Today through Friday) Issued at 424 AM PDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Strong northwesterly winds to will persist through the weekend posing hazardous conditions for small crafts. Periods of gale force gusts will occur through the weekend into the work-week, especially over the coastal waters. Winds continue to increase during the first half of the week lasting through Thursday. Moderate period northwesterly swell will continue to move through the waters through Thursday causing wave heights up to 12 feet. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 3 AM PDT Monday for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 3 PM PDT Monday for Mry Bay-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...SPM LONG TERM....MM AVIATION...DialH MARINE...SPM Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea