087 FXUS65 KPUB 271735 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1135 AM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Heavy snow likely this morning across Teller and parts of northern El Paso county, especially later this morning. - There is a chance for a tornado or two over the far eastern plains, especially over Kiowa, Prowers and Bent counties. - Critical fire danger today over Baca county. - Heavy precip. >1.0 liquid equivalent; over Pikes Peak region. && .UPDATE... Issued at 537 AM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Updated grids to lower snow levels as slushy wet snow has dropped to a little under 6000 feet in elevation. Don't think accumulations will last for long across southern El Paso county as the warm ground continues to defeat the snowfall rates once this band moves through and snowfall decreases. Most webcams show slushy roads at best. But have increased snowfall amounts to up to an inch for portions of Colorado Springs with a little higher values on the west and north side of town, especially for grassy surfaces. Monitoring webcams across Teller county shows most road surfaces are wet or slushy when snowfall rates increase. Road temps have been hovering around 32-33 degrees even across the higher areas, but have higher confidence that impacts to travel will be more significant across Teller county as road temperatures continue to drop. Otherwise, severe threat still looks on target across mainly Kiowa, Bent and Prowers counties. Watching convective development across Las Animas county and frontal boundary which looks to be still situated across Colfax county eastward through Cimarron county. Models have been trending slower with its northward progression which may put northern portions of Baca and NE Las Animas county under a severe risk as well. Have introduced severe into the grids for this area and will see how things evolve over the next hour or two. -KT && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 221 AM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Currently... An IMPRESSIVE upper level low, with a very well defined circulation, was located over northeast AZ early this morning. quite a few showers and some TSRA were noted over the 4 corners states, with some pretty intense lightning activity for this time of day over east central WY. Over our plains, a boundary was located generally just north of the CO/NM state line. To the north of this boundary, dwpts have crept back to above 40F while south of this line and int the mtns, dewpts were in th3 20s and 30s. This morning... an intense band of precip is expected to move over parts of the region today, with the greatest impacts over parts of the southern mtns, a good part of the I-25 corridor and especially the Pikes Peak region. With the center of the upper low fcst to move over the Pikes Peak region, and strong lift moving over the same area, heavy precip is likely, and the cool air aloft is going to be brought down to the surface, causing an isothermal column to develop over the above mentioned region. With the entire column being below freezing, heavy snow is anticipated starting prior to sunrise and lasting into late AM or early PM, with the greatest impacts over the Pikes Peak region and surrounding areas. Heavy snow is likely across Teller county, western El Paso county and parts of northern EL Paso county. especially elevations above 6500 feet. Areas from 6000 to 6500 will also see some snow during the heaviest period of precip, while areas below 6000 will just see moderate to heavy rain. Thunder is likely. Snowfall rates of 2-3 inches per hour will be possible for a couple of hours. The snow will be wet and will settle quickly (not to mention the ground is warm), so settling/melting is likely. Travel will become difficult due to the heavy snow (low vis and slush accumulating). Over the remainder of the region snow will be likely at higher elevations with rain over the lower valleys. The plains generally west of a line from roughly La Junta to Trinidad will see precip while areas west of this line will likely not see much in the way of any accumulating widespread precip. This afternoon... A well define surface boundary is likely to form over parts of the plains. Where exactly this boundary form is not certain, but it will likely extend roughly east-west across the plains and will lift slowly north as the surface low gets spun up and eventually pushes east into KS late today. During the afternoon, showers and thunderstorms are likely to form on this enhanced area of shear, and several low topped supercells will be possible. With a favorable low level shear pattern in place, one or two tornadoes will be possible. SPC has a 2% tor prob extending into part of the region, especially the greater Kiowa county region. All of the CAMS have helicity streaks over parts of the plains today, especially Bent, Prowers and Kiowa county. It should be noted a setup similar to this one occurred back in April 2007 where 11 tornadoes developed over east central Colorado. Given the relatively weak CAPE (500 or so Joules), the tornadoes, if they develop, will likely be on the weaker side. Snow will likely be continuing over the higher elevations of the Palmer Divide, but is not expected to be as heavy as this mornings precip. Far southeast Colorado, mainly Baca county, will see red flag conditions today. Tonight... Periods of snow will continue over the higher elevations and parts of northern El Paso county, especially during the evening hours. Higher elevation snow will be possible over the rest of the higher terrain. showers will be possibe over the plains. The winter weather highlight over the higher elevations will expire by sunrise tomorrow. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 221 AM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Sunday will unsettled with showers over the mtns, valley and I-25 corridor, with dry weather over the far eastern plains expected. Temps on the pains will be in the 60s, with 50s valleys and 30s through 50s mtns. Monday will warm up and will be dry over the area. Tuesday temps will increase further, with 80s returning to the plains, and around 70 valleys. This warm and dry pattern will continue into Wednesday. Another stronger storm will push into the region by late week bringing more mtn snows and showers to the lower elevations. There could be periods of near critical fire weather conditions over the far eastern plain Tue and Wed. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1133 AM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024 MVFR cigs/vis with RASN and VCTS will continue at KCOS with the heaviest precipitation falling through the morning. Winds will increase out of the north this afternoon which should raise cigs into the MVFR to VFR category though periodic -SHRASN will continue through the afternoon before winding down this evening. Cigs raise back into the VFR category after 06z as precipitation comes to an end. KPUB will see rounds of SHRA/-TSRA through the afternoon though cigs will predominantly stay VFR. Winds will stay north to northeasterly and may pick up in speed with gusts to around 25 kts this afternoon as another round of showers and thunderstorms moves through. Improving conditions can be expected overnight. KALS will remain VFR today with breezy southerly winds gusting to 25 kts diminishing after 02-03z. -SHRA will be possible though cigs should remain VFR. Winds will shift out of the north this evening becoming light and variable overnight with showers diminishing after 06z. -KT && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM MDT Sunday for COZ058-060-081- 082. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MDT Sunday for COZ059-061- 063-066-068-073-076. Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for COZ084. Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ237. && $$ UPDATE...KT SHORT TERM...HODANISH LONG TERM...HODANISH AVIATION...KT