689 FXUS64 KTSA 280001 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 701 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Through Tonight) Issued at 211 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Short-term severe weather and flash flood concerns dominate the focus of the forecast today, with thunderstorm coverage expected to increase through the rest of the afternoon and evening, continuing well into Sunday. Thunderstorms are ongoing in western Oklahoma, nearer to the dryline, with coverage also increasing in central Oklahoma in the warm sector. CAMs continue to show the warm sector activity expanding northeastward into eastern Oklahoma and eventually western Arkansas mid to late afternoon into the evening. Mesoanalysis and radar presentation would suggest that northeast Oklahoma is at the greatest risk in the near term for the bulk of this, with the rest of the forecast area following toward evening. The expectation is that one or more lines of storms will form to the west this evening and move eastward into Sunday morning, as the upper level system moves into the Central Plains. Forecast soundings are supportive of very large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes this afternoon and evening, including strong tornadoes, especially into northeast Oklahoma. While the severe weather threat is not expected to completely diminish, there should be a transition during the evening and into the overnight toward a flash flood threat given unseasonably high precipitable water values and potential for 2 to 5 inches - locally 6 to 8 - of rain over a widespread area. The Flood Watch has been expanded into all of eastern Oklahoma as well as northwest and west central Arkansas. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Saturday) Issued at 211 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Thunderstorms producing heavy rain and at least a low chance for severe weather will be ongoing across parts of eastern Oklahoma and northwest and west central Arkansas, with an expected decrease in coverage and intensity toward mid morning. Another round of thunderstorms with severe weather potential is expected to develop along the cold front/dryline Sunday afternoon and into the evening, with a lesser but still existent potential for tornadoes and very large hail. The Flood Watch may need to be extended in time to account for this activity across eastern parts of the watch area. A short break in the active pattern is expected Monday and into Tuesday, with a period of dry weather for much of those two days. The dry weather will be short-lived with multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms, including some potential for severe thunderstorms, mid to late week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 653 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Flying conditions are expected to worsen as we move through the night and into Sunday morning as showers/storms become widespread across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 81 63 77 55 / 40 100 80 10 FSM 81 66 77 61 / 40 70 100 50 MLC 81 65 76 60 / 40 100 90 10 BVO 80 61 77 51 / 40 90 70 10 FYV 78 63 74 57 / 40 80 90 50 BYV 78 63 73 57 / 30 60 100 60 MKO 80 63 74 58 / 40 90 90 10 MIO 80 62 73 54 / 30 100 90 30 F10 79 63 76 58 / 40 100 80 10 HHW 80 66 73 61 / 40 80 90 30 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for OKZ049-053>076. AR...Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for ARZ001-002-010-011-019- 020-029. && $$ SHORT TERM...22 LONG TERM....22 AVIATION...10