278 FXUS64 KSJT 280541 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX Issued by National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 1241 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 119 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 The main concern through the next 24 hours is the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and overnight. We are expecting two different rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms, with the first beginning to develop across the Big Country early this afternoon. A dryline is located west of our area, with an increasingly unstable environment across much of the forecast area. A few storms are beginning to develop across the Big Country and across the South Plains region. The CAMS indicate that this activity will continue to increase in coverage across the Big Country through the afternoon hours, and this seems reasonable. Any storms that do develop will likely quickly become strong to severe. The main concerns with these storms will be very large, damaging winds, and tornadoes. A second, more widespread, round of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected late tonight and into the early morning hours Sunday. A Pacific cold front is forecast to approach the region from the west late this evening and eventually collide with the dryline. The lift from this collision along with upper level support as an upper level trough approaches should result in the rapid development of thunderstorms just west of our area between 8 PM and 10 PM. This activity is then forecast to slowly spread east across the region through the overnight hours. The development of a QLCS is possible, and very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are possible with this line. Most of this activity should be east of the region by sunrise. In addition, locally heavy rain will be possible, especially across our eastern counties, and flooding is possible within any thunderstorms, especially on roadways and low lying areas. Overnight lows will be in the mid 50s to near 60, with highs on Sunday in the low to mid 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1252 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Active weather pattern continues next week, with afternoon and evening dry-line thunderstorm activity possible across portions of the forecast area most days. Storms could be strong to severe at times. Temperatures will continue to be warm, with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s most days. Zonal flow aloft and subsidence behind a departing short-wave Monday will result in mostly dry conditions that day. Strengthening of the 850 mb thermal ridge will result in warmer temperatures, with highs Monday in the mid 80s to low 90s. Southwest flow aloft returns Tuesday through Thursday as another low pressure system moves into the Pacific Northwest and makes its way through the Central Plains. Each day, Tuesday through Thursday, some afternoon/evening strong to severe thunderstorm activity could occur off the dry-line (which looks to set-up close to, or across, our western counties) as multiple short-waves move up in the southwest flow aloft. Depending on exact placement of the dry-line, strength of the capping inversion, amount on instability, and strength of the short-waves, storms could impact portions of our forecast area each afternoon/evening. Highs each day look to continue in the mid 80s to low 90s range. Friday, a cold front looks to move down at some point. Earlier timing would result in a dry day, while later timing could result in more thunderstorms activity for Friday. A deeper, slower upper level low will move into the Western CONUS next weekend, putting us again in southwest flow aloft, with the potential for more afternoon/evening thunderstorms. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1045 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 VFR to MVFR conditions are expected through the period across all of the TAF sites with CIG FEW015-OVC250. The will be periods of SKC later in the period. The winds will be generally breezy to windy (10 to 20 kts with gusts up to 35 kts and out from the west through 10Z. There is a line of TS that is impacting the KABI and KSJT. This line will continue to progress eastward over the next couple of of hours impacting the rest of the terminals. With TS in the VC, the VSBY will be reduced to 1 to 2 SM at least through 09Z. After this line of TS moves out, both the winds and the VSBY will improve. The winds are expected to become light AOB 10 kts and generally out of between the west and northwest through the 06Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 57 82 55 87 / 80 0 0 0 San Angelo 57 85 54 91 / 80 0 0 0 Junction 59 87 57 92 / 90 20 0 0 Brownwood 58 83 56 86 / 90 10 0 0 Sweetwater 57 82 57 88 / 60 0 0 0 Ozona 56 84 56 88 / 80 0 0 0 Brady 59 82 58 86 / 90 10 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Daniels LONG TERM....SJH AVIATION...EPZ