240 FXUS64 KSHV 281129 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 629 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Monday) Issued at 424 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 The early morning water vapor imagery indicates a neutral tilt upper trough extending from Wrn NE S through Wrn KS into far W TX into Srn NM, with a line of strong to severe convection continuing to march E into SE OK and N TX, into the Wrn Hill Country. While these storms have shown a slow weakening trend in the last hour or so, a large cold pool has progressed E along this line of deep convection, resulting in strong winds gusts of 30-40+ kts especially over Srn OK into N TX. Strong convergence along this bndry (courtesy of SE winds 10-20kts with gusts to 25-30kts) should maintain the intensity of these storms for at least the next few hours, although a weakening pressure gradient and gradually increasing stability over E TX/SW AR/NW LA should result in a weakening trend after daybreak, especially as large scale ascent also weakens as it moves farther away from the trough. This MCS/cold pool should leave behind a bndry later this morning somewhere over NE TX into SW AR, with the stabilizing air mass eventually destabilizing in response to strong heating by mid afternoon once the upper trough axis begins to take on a negative tilt over the Srn Plains, thus enhancing large scale ascent in VC of the residual convective bndry. Ample shear with an area of MLCape of 1500-2500+ J/kg will be sufficient enough for severe convection to develop by mid and late afternoon over NE TX/SW AR/possibly extreme SE OK, with a mostly unidirectional flow atop the bndry lyr contributing to cell training and periods of repeated heavy rainfall. All modes of severe weather are possible, including isolated tornadoes embedded within the line, as some backing of low level winds are possible just ahead of the line, resulting in 0-1km SRH's of 200-300+ m2/s2. This convection may eventually develop a cold pool and allow it to gradually progress E into Deep E TX/N LA/Scntrl AR this evening. However, the severe and heavy rainfall/potential flood threat will continue, with the convection eventually diminishing overnight from the NW. The various short term progs differ considerably with QPF late this afternoon through Monday morning, although some general consensus of 2-4+ inches seem feasible, with isolated higher amounts possible especially where cell training persists. Thus, the Flood Watch will remain in effect through Monday afternoon, although some tapering of the Watch is expected Monday morning over the NW zones once the convection moves out of those areas. Much of the convection should exit Ncntrl LA by midday/early afternoon Monday, with the resultant cold pool ushering in a slightly drier air mass in its wake, although warm temps should return by afternoon with the return of strong insolation. 15 && .LONG TERM... (Monday Night through Sunday) Issued at 424 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 The unsettled weather pattern will continue throughout much of the long term period as well, as the residual mesoscale bndry leftover from Monday's convection should eventually begin to return back N and wash out Monday night, allowing for warmer and more humid air to advect back N as well. Weak perturbations in the dirty zonal flow along the returning humid air mass should help focus the potential for scattered convection especially in the afternoon, mainly across E TX/N LA. This convection appears to be mostly diurnally driven, diminishing by early evening. Additional perturbations in the flow aloft will again yield the potential for scattered convection over much of the region Wednesday, with the flow transitioning more to SW by Wednesday night ahead of the next upper trough that will translate E through the Cntrl Rockies. Thus, convection should become more numerous as the attendant shortwave energy becomes more defined Thursday and Friday, with likely pops expanded E across the area. Can't rule out at least an isolated severe threat by week's end, all of which will be dependent on the extent of sfc heating/resultant instability, as well as the amplitude of these individual shortwave troughs ahead of a weak cold front that will be reinforced into the area Friday. Unfortunately, it doesn't appear much cooler and drier air will follow the fropa, with the SW flow aloft resuming next weekend thus focusing at least isolated to scattered convection over the region. Temps should remain near the seasonal norms by late week into next weekend as well. 15 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 624 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 For the 28/12Z TAFs, gusty conditions will begin to ease at most area terminals, with SSE winds maintaining speeds of 10 to 20 kts with gusts over 20 kts still possible. Higher gusts will be possible in the vicinity of stronger storms. CIGs will descend to MVFR heights while becoming increasingly overcast ahead of incoming storms, which are entering northern and western ArkLaTex airspace now, potentially impacting TXK TYR and GGG through the morning. More potent impacts will develop in the latter half of the TAF package, reflected with prevailing VCTS and TSRA conditions. /26/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 86 66 83 67 / 40 100 50 10 MLU 87 66 77 65 / 20 80 100 20 DEQ 77 61 82 58 / 80 90 10 0 TXK 83 63 83 62 / 60 90 30 10 ELD 84 63 79 60 / 30 100 70 10 TYR 81 66 84 66 / 80 80 10 10 GGG 83 66 83 65 / 60 90 20 10 LFK 85 67 86 66 / 50 90 40 10 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Flood Watch through Monday evening for ARZ050-051-059>061- 070>073. LA...Flood Watch through Monday evening for LAZ001>006-010>014- 017>022. OK...Flood Watch through Monday evening for OKZ077. TX...Flood Watch through Monday evening for TXZ096-097-108>112- 124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167. && $$ SHORT TERM...15 LONG TERM....15 AVIATION...26