640 FXUS64 KMAF 271049 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 549 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday afternoon) Issued at 307 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Low level moisture continues to push northwest into the area ahead of the next upper trough currently over the Four Corners. A leading shortwave moving overhead this morning will generate a few showers and storms across the eastern Permian Basin. Severe weather is not expected and rainfall amounts look light. Dry air will mix east fairly quickly once the sun comes up likely pushing the dryline to the far reaches of our CWA by late afternoon. Strong winds are expected behind the dryline especially across the Guadalupe Mountains and adjacent plains of SE NM. Will add a Wind Advisory to the plains in addition to the warning in effect for the mountains. Wind gusts could near 55 mph across Eddy Co and near 50 mph from Hobbs to Tatum. Temperatures will top out near normal today in the 80s/90s. The dryline will sharpen and begin to move back west this evening before being met with an eastward advancing Pacific front. This collision looks to take place along a line from Big Lake to Colorado City. This is where another round of showers and storms will develop. These storms will quickly move east and should be out of our area before becoming severe. The upper trough will lift into the Plains Sunday with continued westerly flow at the surface behind today front. Winds look much lighter with speed only around 10-15 mph. Temperatures will cool a few degrees, but you won't notice it much. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 307 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Upper flow returns from the post-trough northwest flow to quasi- zonal for Monday and is set to linger through mid-week. A calm start to the week is the result until a weak shortwave brings the return of precipitation chances on Wednesday. The zonal flow induces lee troughing and pulls the dryline (and 55+ dewpoints) up against the higher terrain each morning. Until any forcing arrives, the result is just some warm and muggy mornings with the dryline doing its typical diurnal dance to the east during the day and west at night. Even with Wednesday's weak trough, the forcing is marginal at best and a bulk of the precipitation should stay to the east of our area or our eastern zones at best. The NBM is catching onto this idea and PoPs have decreased as such. A more potent trough swings through the north-central Rockies into the Plains on Thursday but is too far north to provide direct precipitation chances. However, this feature will likely send a cold front into the area Thursday into Friday. This may help focus an additional chance of rain/storms, especially if the dryline retreats...but time will tell. As far as temperatures go, the long term is generally characterized by hot (and dry) afternoons behind the dryline (highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s) with warm/muggy mornings with the retreating dryline (lows only falling to the upper 50s and 60s). With the cold front coming in the latter half of the week, some relief arrives both in high and low temperatures. -Munyan && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 546 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 A band of MVFR cigs currently affecting KMAF will clear the area over the next hour. VFR will prevail through the period with gusty west winds by afternoon affecting all terminals. Strongest winds expected at KCNM where gusts could near 40 kts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 307 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Stronger winds arrive today as the next trough approaches, especially across the Southeast New Mexico Plains and western high terrain. Similarly dry conditions seen yesterday persist today along with poor overnight recovery ongoing this morning. Between the increased winds and slightly degraded ERCs after yesterdays's dry conditions, critical fire conditions should develop and the Red Flag Warning appears on track and remains in effect. Similar to Thursday, there will be a threat of thunderstorms Saturday evening which may produce gusty and erratic winds along with some lightning, but this looks to be fairly confined to the far eastern Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos. Beyond today, lighter winds and good to excellent overnight recoveries will limit fire weather concerns somewhat until Wednesday when a shortwave trough arrives and storms return for the remainder of the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 85 54 83 54 / 10 20 0 0 Carlsbad 77 49 82 51 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 93 59 88 58 / 0 20 0 0 Fort Stockton 89 55 85 56 / 0 10 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 68 48 72 52 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 78 47 79 49 / 0 10 0 0 Marfa 81 42 75 44 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 83 54 82 55 / 0 10 0 0 Odessa 83 54 82 56 / 0 10 0 0 Wink 85 51 85 53 / 0 10 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Wind Warning until 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Sunday for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains. Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for Central Brewster County- Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson County-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains- Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Presidio Valley-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor. Wind Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for Eastern Culberson County. NM...High Wind Warning until midnight MDT tonight for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County. Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for Chaves Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains. Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM MDT this evening for Central Lea County-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County. && $$ SHORT TERM...29 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...29