177 FXUS64 KLZK 272343 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 643 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 255 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Latest KLZK radar data indicate scattered, many light convective cells across northern sections of the forecast area, moving northeast. Temperatures were running 5 to 10 degrees above normal for late April. Expect active weather conditions to prevail through at least the first half of this forecast period. Convection is expected to continue to expand in coverage across southern Kansas through western North Texas during the late afternoon hours. Upscale convective development is expected as this activity moves eastward. This activity will approach western sections of the forecast area late tonight. Some decrease in overall intensity of this convection is expected as it reaches the forecast area. The amount and timing of the decrease will have an affect of the amount of stabilization that occurs Sunday morning due to convective overturning. Upper level energy will continue to approach the mid south on Sunday. Another round of convection is expected during the afternoon and evening. Again, the timing of the development will depend on the overturning that occurs with the first round of storms. Precipitation coverage is expected to decrease from west to east on Monday. && .LONG TERM... (Monday Night through next Saturday) Issued at 255 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Unsettled weather remains likely through the long term portion of the forecast. A series of H500 troughs will periodically dip south into the western/northern US beneath a broad cyclone slowly moving east along the US/CA border. With mid-level ridging in place across the Gulf Coast/Southeast, persistent SW flow will remain over much of the central/southern US. At the sfc, a warm/moist airmass will extend north toward the Central Plains/Great Lakes region with a stalled frontal boundary in the vicinity. Daily highs and lows through the period are expected to remain above normal as S-SW flow persists between ridging to the SE and sfc cyclone to the NW. Other than temperatures, sfc winds will remain elevated at times as well due to the enhanced pressure gradient. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will be in the forecast nearly every day, with diurnal heating expected to be a contributing factor in development. But also, timing of individual shortwaves traversing the flow aloft will influence periods of increased POPs. Large scale signals for severe weather remain low, but there could be some potential later next week as a more pronounced trough moves toward the middle of the country and a cold front approaches from the NW. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 636 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Moisture will continue in increase over the region as a storm system approaches from the west. VFR ceilings this evening will deteriorate to MVFR with time and remain down through the conclusion of the period, A first wave of precipitation early Sunday will bring precipitation to the northern terminals. The aforementioned storm system will arrive just beyond the conclusion of the period with widespread rain along with very gusty winds as thunderstorms develop. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 66 79 63 75 / 20 70 100 70 Camden AR 67 82 63 78 / 10 50 100 70 Harrison AR 64 73 58 77 / 60 80 80 20 Hot Springs AR 67 79 62 80 / 30 70 100 50 Little Rock AR 68 82 65 78 / 20 60 100 70 Monticello AR 67 84 66 75 / 10 30 70 90 Mount Ida AR 66 78 60 81 / 40 80 90 30 Mountain Home AR 65 75 59 78 / 30 70 90 30 Newport AR 65 81 64 74 / 20 50 90 80 Pine Bluff AR 66 82 64 75 / 20 40 90 90 Russellville AR 66 78 61 80 / 40 70 90 30 Searcy AR 65 79 63 75 / 10 60 100 80 Stuttgart AR 66 81 66 74 / 10 40 90 90 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from Sunday morning through Monday morning for ARZ004-005-014-024-031-032-039-042>044-052>055-062-063-066>068- 103-112-113-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230- 237-238-240-241-313-340-341. && $$ SHORT TERM...55 LONG TERM....67 AVIATION...56