403 FXUS64 KLUB 281726 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1226 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 337 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 A generally quiet weather day is expected today in the wake of the departing upper level storm system. The core of the upper low will advance into the Great Lakes region by this afternoon with only some modest midlevel troughing remaining in place over West Texas. A much drier airmass will result in plenty of sunshine today with WNW winds remaining relatively light and high temperatures right near seasonal normals. This evening, some guidance hints at an increase in midlevel cloud cover and potential for a few virga showers over eastern NM and the southern TX Panhandle associated with some weak residual PVA within a trailing shortwave. This may result in a few strong gusts late in the evening particularly over the far SW TX Panhandle, but overall the bulk of this activity should remain to the north of our forecast area. Outside of any virga activity during the evening, expect generally light winds overnight with lows near normal. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 337 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 A subtle shortwave in the flow aloft Monday morning will bring a weak lee low over West Texas with brief light northwest surface winds. However, gradual height rises will give way to the return of warm downsloping southwesterly surface winds and high temperatures in the 80s. Zonal flow aloft Tuesday with a lee low across northeast New Mexico will bring continued downsloping southwesterly surface winds and temperatures warming into the upper 80s to lower 90s. A potential for a record breaking high temperature for Lubbock on Tuesday with the current forecast at 92 degrees and the previous record being 94 degrees (set back in 2013). The dryline will retreat back into our area Tuesday afternoon with increased low level moisture. An axis of instability will give way to a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms to return across the far southeast Texas Panhandle and Rolling Plains. A severe storm cannot be ruled out at this time given MLCAPE values around 1500-2500 J/kg and bulk shear near 30 knots. However, it appears the best chances for storms may be just east of the forecast area. West of the dryline, breezy and dry conditions may lead to elevated to critical fire weather concerns. The flow aloft will become southwesterly Wednesday with a positively tilted trough axis digging into the Upper Rockies. A lee cyclone will deepen across eastern Colorado with the dryline sharpening into the afternoon hours across the forecast area. Southwesterly surface winds will once again give way to warm temperatures in the 90s. Increased storm chances Wednesday afternoon east of the dryline where MLCAPE values in excess of 2500-3000 J/kg and bulk shear around 30 knots will support severe storms. The position of the dryline will determine the area for a better chance of storms, but current thinking is along and east of the I-27 corridor. Following Wednesday, there continues to be model discrepancy in the timing, strength and position of the upper trough axis. The latest 00z model run of the EC has the trough axis remaining farther north, stronger and quicker than the GFS. The varying differences in the timing and strength of the trough axis is the difference between a cold front pushing south across the forecast area Thursday versus Friday. Either way, temperatures are expected to be nearly 20 degrees cooler in the 70s following the frontal boundary, along with the potential for post frontal showers and storms this weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 VFR conditions and light winds will persist through this TAF period. A few virga showers may develop northwest of KPVW late tonight which could produce gusty and erratic winds. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...58