168 FXUS64 KLCH 280925 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 425 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday night) Issued at 425 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Well, get ready because this forecast package includes a lot of updates with quite a big upgrade in wording and expectation for the next 24 to 36 hours. To start with hazards... The Wind Advisory was cut back down to the HWY 190 corridor for much of today. High pressure has moved further east allowing for the pressure gradient to relax in comparison to yesterday. Strong south-southeast winds with gusts up to 40 MPH along the coastline are still likely, but further inland, expect breezy conditions below Advisory criteria (sustained 20 to 34 MPH). Due to the continuation of long fetch over the Gulf, waters will continue piling up along the coastline. As we move towards high tide, expect water levels 2 or so feet above tide predictions which would result in coastal flooding. Areas most concerning are Jefferson and south Orange counties, and Cameron and south Calcasieu parishes which are under a Coastal Flood Warning. All other coastal zones are in a Coastal Flood Advisory for waters 1.5 to 2.0 feet above tide predictions. The mention of an upgrade in wording for this forecast package comes due to a sudden upgrade to Slight Risk for severe weather for all Texas counties and Louisiana parishes west of I-49; Marginal Risk of severe weather east of I-49. A series of low pressure areas are moving across the central US underneath mid level shortwave trof. This trof axis swings towards east Texas late today before another shortwave pulse develops and moves overtop Louisiana on Monday. There is already a long area of thunderstorms which developed from the main shortwave that now stretches from the Upper Midwest southwestward into southwest Texas. The expectation is for storms to repeatedly die off and redevelop along this line as it moves east underneath the primary shortwave trof today. At this time, we are now expecting a line of strong to severe thunderstorms to arrive into southeast Texas sometime late this evening into early Monday morning. Short term guidance is struggling to sort out exactly what time this feature will move through our region with earliest arrival being about 10 PM tonight and latest arrival a few hours after midnight. Severe concerns with this line are for some tornadoes and strong to severe thunderstorms; some hail up to 1 inch. Other concern is for very efficient rainfall associated with the line that may result in areas of flash flooding. It is hard to say where the line of greatest rainfall will set up, but with the rain we've had recently, it's not going to take much to cause flooding in urban centers nor for creeks to come out of their beds. QPF forecasts and rainfall total probabilities have only increased and now place 3 to 5 inches with some higher amounts across much of southeast Texas and central/southwest Louisiana from late Sunday into Tuesday morning. The bulk of rainfall is expected from after midnight tonight through Monday evening. As of now, we urge folks to prepare for severe weather and flash flooding as we start this next work week. The secondary trof moves overhead Monday afternoon which should assist with moving the bulk of showers and thunderstorms out of the area by evening. However, the boundary these storms are tied to won't clear down into the GoM under weakening flow aloft. Expect the boundary to move back onshore on Tuesday with another round of showers and storms (lighter rain and lower severe risk) Tuesday afternoon. 11/Calhoun && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 425 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Weak SFC and mid level ridging exists to the east giving way to more of a trof across the region by mid week. Meanwhile the southern stream jet, while not strong, remains across the Gulf Coast through this period. Guidance continues to show multiple disturbances traversing the flow from mid to late week, with an eventual cold front approaching by late week into the weekend. It appears this frontal bndry will become stationary meandering through the weekend. Given the ample moisture and instability, daily showers and thunderstorms look like an increasing likelihood. Severe weather is not out of the question given the presence of the disturbances and jet support, but confidence is on the low side. An active and unsettled period of weather with increased chances for above average rainfall has much higher confidence. Daytime highs remain a nearly copy and paste forecast through the entire extended. Highs each afternoon will be in the middle to upper 80s, warmest into the weekend ahead of the frontal bndry. 78 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1149 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Windy conditions will persist at all area terminals through the taf period as the region remains sandwiched between a large surface high along the east coast and a deep low centered over the central plains. MVFR ceilings will prevail this morning before improving to VFR by late morning. A slowly approaching frontal boundary will approach the region from the west this evening initializing convection across Southeast Texas after 21Z with activity expanding into southwest Louisiana by late this evening. Jones && .MARINE... Issued at 425 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 The tight pressure gradient between high pressure and low pressure in the central US is starting to relax due to high moving eastward. While winds today will maintain their strong south- southeast fetch, generally expect winds to be lower than yesterday with further decreases by Monday morning. Waves will be slower to yield and will remain 5 to 7 feet in at least 20 to 60 nm waters through Monday afternoon. Chances of showers and thunderstorms increase Sunday night through Tuesday morning as a deep layer mid to upper level trough approaches the area. && .MARINE... A tight pressure gradient between a series of lows over the Southern Plains and a surface high off the east coast will allow for a prolonged period of strong and gusty onshore winds to continue through Sunday afternoon. Small Craft Advisory for all waters continues through Sunday afternoon. Winds and seas will slowly subside by Sunday night and Monday as the pressure gradient relaxes. Chances of showers and thunderstorms increase Sunday night through Tuesday morning as a deep layer mid to upper level trough approaches the area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 86 65 78 64 / 20 60 100 20 LCH 84 69 80 70 / 20 60 90 20 LFT 87 73 82 70 / 10 30 90 40 BPT 83 71 83 70 / 30 70 80 20 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening for LAZ027>033. Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for LAZ044-045-055-073- 074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254. Coastal Flood Warning until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for LAZ073- 074-241. Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for LAZ252>254. TX...Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ180-201-259>262. Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ515-516-615-616. Coastal Flood Warning until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ615- 616. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Monday for GMZ430-432-435- 436. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Monday for GMZ450-452-455- 470-472-475. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....78 AVIATION...66