865 FXUS64 KJAN 280531 AAC AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 1231 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 ...New AVIATION... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 957 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Rest of tonight... GOES East water vapor imagery & RAP analysis indicate stout upper cold core trough digging over the Four Corners, which is leading to widespread ascent, convection & severe weather across the Great Plains. Our region remains in the drier pattern, with center of mean ridging in the Carolinas & sfc subtropical high centered in the western Atlantic. 00Z sounding indicate PWs less than 1.3 inches this evening. The Gulf coast states remain in southerly return flow, but there is some indications that some dry thermodynamic profiles could advect in off the Gulf, keeping a quiet night in store. No rain is expected but some stratus is possible to build across the southern half of the area. 4-5mb gradient currently analyzed in LAPS analysis this evening. Sustained winds around 10mph will persist, with some higher gusts at times. Seasonably warm lows, some 5-10 deg F above normal, in the low-mid 60s are expected. Updates are out. /DC/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 309 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Through Sunday: In the near-term, dry air with analyzed PWATs generally below 1.3 inches this afternoon is the limiting factor for much in the way of shower or thunderstorm potential. Surface-based CAPE values over 2000 J/kg and decent low-level and mid-level lapse rates would otherwise support convection. A stray shower or storm cannot be ruled out this evening, but gusty gradient winds up to 30-35 mph will be the main concern this evening. Continued moisture advection and a better-timed shortwave trough passing through the ArkLaTex region tomorrow afternoon could support a few showers or thunderstorms during the daytime. Most of the activity should stay to our west through the daytime however, as the wave interacts with a dryline feature and generates organized severe weather threat for East Texas into western Louisiana. Gusty southerly winds will continue across the area, so will keep the Limited wind graphic in effect through the day tomorrow. Sunday night through Saturday: The severe thunderstorm activity to our west on Sunday will have the chance to make a run into at least northeast Louisiana and southeast Arkansas tomorrow night. Hi-res guidance runs show a mature squall line developing from the afternoon activity, and potentially bowing out as it reaches the western portions of our forecast area late Sunday evening into early Monday morning. A Slight Risk area for potential damaging wind gusts and a possible tornado have therefore been added for the Sunday night time frame. This line should continue eastward into the day, possibly stalling out or losing momentum before it fully clears our forecast area. A Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms will continue into the day Monday, and the potential for heavy rain with this system will also necessitate a Limited Flash Flooding risk as well. Hazardous Weather Outlook graphics have been updated and issued accordingly. A fairly progressive split flow regime sets up over the CONUS through the rest of next week, driving a few potential periods of showers and thunderstorms as shortwave troughs moving east and interact with spring-like humid and unstable air masses across the South. When not raining, afternoon high temperatures should push the upper 80s/lower 90s range. /NF/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1231 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 VFR conditions prevail across most of the region early this morning, but an MVFR stratus deck has begun to develop and will expand through the morning hours. VFR conditions will return by late morning as these clouds mix out. During the day, S/SE winds will be gusty at times with some gusts to near 30 kt possible. Isolated SHRA or TS cannot be ruled out but most sites will remain dry. Later in the evening, MVFR stratus will begin to redevelop and expand into Sunday night with increasing chances for SHRA and TS late. /DL/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 83 67 78 64 / 20 10 80 60 Meridian 84 63 82 63 / 20 10 60 60 Vicksburg 86 68 76 65 / 20 20 90 50 Hattiesburg 83 67 81 65 / 20 10 60 50 Natchez 85 68 77 65 / 20 20 90 40 Greenville 84 67 74 65 / 20 40 100 40 Greenwood 84 67 75 64 / 20 20 90 50 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ DC/NF/DL