065 FXUS64 KHUN 271717 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1217 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Rest of Today) Issued at 945 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 An East Coast ridge will continue to hold sway across the TN Valley region today with dry weather conditions expected. Weak shortwave impulses riding NEWRD along the western flank of the ridge will induce lift aloft, resulting in mid-level clouds at times, and even light returns on radars that will largely be in the form of virga. ESE flow around the SW flank of the sfc high will push W Atlantic air across the SE and into the TN Valley, keeping temperatures perhaps a little suppressed from yesterday's values. Although, a W-E gradient will exist and highs may only top out in the upper 70s in parts of the east compared to low/mid 80s elsewhere. A strong pressure gradient between the East Coast Ridge and a West CONUS/High Plains trough will produce breezy conditions today. The UAH RaDAPS wind profilers have shown 30kt+ winds at ~500m elevation, but so far no tendency for those to lower through time. The continuation of deeper mixing does give some concern that we may get close to Wind Advisory criteria, however, the broader scale pressure gradient is expected to relax a little during the day. So, winds could remain near steady-state. A few minor changes were made to most weather elements to align with the latest observations, and updated grids have been sent. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 155 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Little change in the overall wx pattern is again expected heading into the weekend period, as the upper ridge axis translates more into the mid/southern Atlantic states and high pressure settles into the southern Atlantic Basin. This should translate into relatively breezy conditions continuing into the new week, with gusts around 20-30 MPH at times. Partly/mostly cloudy skies will also continue across the central TN Valley, given some lingering moisture below H7 prevailing into the new work week. Seasonably warm temps look to prevail both Sun/Mon, with highs predom in the lower 80s/near 80F and overnight lows into early Tue trending in the upper 50s/mid 60s. Increasing showers/tstms will then return to the forecast Mon/Mon night, as the influx of moisture into the area strengthens and an upper trough pattern traverses eastward into the Mid South/TN Valley areas. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 155 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Showers and storms will come to an end from west to east across the area on Tuesday as the shortwave lifts northeast and upper ridging begins to push east across the Deep South. South/southwesterly flow will keep a more tropical airmass in place through the remainder of the work week, and daily highs in the low to mid 80s are forecast with overnight lows in the low to mid 60s. A series of weaker disturbances will be embedded within the upper ridge, and will result in daily low chances (20-30%) for showers and thunderstorms. Models show an upper low tracking over the northern Plains heading into the weekend, and a cold front will push south through the Midwest and into the mid MS River Valley. This system will result in an increase in shower/storm chances (40-50%) Friday into the weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 VFR conditions expected at KHSV and KMSL through the TAF period. Wind gusts may tend to decrease overnight, especially at KMSL. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...KDW SHORT TERM....09 LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...KDW