080 FXUS64 KHGX 281110 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 610 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday Night) Issued at 209 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 This morning will start off fairly quiet with mostly cloudy skies and breezy southerly winds. There may be a few isolated streamer showers that develop this morning as the southerly winds pump increased moisture into the region. Some pop-up thunderstorms are possible during the early afternoon as daytime heating begins to enhance uplift. But our attention today will focus on an approaching boundary from the west that may bring strong to severe thunderstorms. The line of showers and storms will begin to push into our northern counties (Burleson to Houston County) by the mid afternoon and continue to slowly push eastwards through the evening into the overnight hours. Areas closer to the coast will have a more substantial cap to overcome limiting storm development, but the cap looks to erode fairly quickly for area north of Conroe. Areas along the I-10 corridor may get some isolated strong to severe thunderstorms beginning around midnight tonight, give or take an hour or two, as the boundary slowly moves through. The majority of the showers and storms will exit to the east by 2 to 4am. The atmosphere today and tonight will be conductive for strong to severe thunderstorm development with all severe weather threats possible (large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes). CAPE values between 2500-3000 J/kg, lapse rates nearing 7-8 C/km, and abundant shear will all aid in thunderstorm development. SPC has maintained the Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) along and north of I-10 and Marginal (level 1 of 5) Risk for the coast for today, but added an Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) for Madison, Houston, Trinity, Walker, San Jacinto, and Polk counties. Within this Enhanced area is where significant hail (greater than 2") and potentially strong tornadoes may form. The tornado threat will be higher during the afternoon through evening hours, with hail and damaging wind becoming the primary severe threats during the overnight hours. In addition to the severe weather threat, locally heavy rainfall is possible today that could lead to isolated flash flooding or minor river flooding. Rainfall amounts through tonight will generally be up to 2", but there may be isolated areas of up to 3-5" where the stronger storms develop or train. WPC continues the Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall for areas north of Harris County with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for most of the rest of the region. Will have to pay closer attention to areas north and east of Lake Livingston that received the most rainfall last week. Three hour FFG there is around 3-4", which is possible to exceed with the stronger storms this evening/tonight. Additional isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible on Monday due to lingering moisture. Temperatures will remain on the warm side through the short term with high temperatures in the low to mid 80s and overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. Fowler && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 209 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 A wet weather pattern is to expected to remain over Southeast TX this week, in particular during the first half of the week, as a series of mid to upper level disturbances and vort maxes move across the region. Persistent southeasterly flow along with sufficient moisture (PWs between 1.4 and 1.7 inches) and instability, will result in periods of isolated to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms each day. The highest chances lie among locations north of I-10 for much of the week and would occur mainly during the mid morning to evening hours, although a few nighttime storms aren't out of the question. By Friday, there is the possibility of a cold front moving into Southeast TX and stalling near the coast through the upcoming weekend, which could prolong the shower and storm activity. With respect to temperatures, the highs will rise a degree or two each day Tuesday into Thursday, ranging in the low to mid 80s on Tuesday and increasing into the mid to upper 80s by Thursday. On Friday, the cooling or warming of the highs will depend on the timing of the frontal passage as well as the location it is to stall. For now, carried highs in the low 80s over the northern half of Southeast TX and mid to upper 80s over the southern half. The lows will be in the upper 60s to low 70s Tuesday night, but lows mainly in the low 70s are expected Wednesday and Thursday night. Slightly cooler low temperatures are possible Friday and Saturday night. 24 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 610 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 MVFR conditions of CIGs between 1500-2500ft will persist through the day with periods of VFR conditions during the mid/late morning through the afternoon. There will be isolated showers and storms the pop up through the afternoon, but am anticipating a line of storms to move through the area beginning in the late afternoon through tonight. Strong to severe storms are possible producing hail, strong winds, and tornadoes are possible, especially north of IAH. The line of storms will move through CLL between 20 and 00z, 03 to 07z at IAH, and then off the coast in the late night hours tonight. Coverage of the storms will be higher north of I-10, with more isolated activity southwards. MVFR to IFR conditions will develop once the storms move through with CIGs down to 700ft possible and patchy fog. Fowler && .MARINE... Issued at 209 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Small Craft Advisories will remain in effect through early Monday morning. Strong onshore winds will continue over the bays and Gulf waters through this afternoon. Seas will also remain elevated, likely to range between 10 and 12 feet over the offshore waters and 6 to 9 feet over the nearshore waters through tonight. The bays will be choppy and shoaling is possible. The chance for minor coastal flooding, dangerous surf, and strong rip currents will continue today, thus, a Beach Hazard Statement will remain in effect through this evening. Winds will gradually decrease Sunday night into Monday morning and seas will subside as the winds relax. For the rest of the week, light to moderate onshore winds with seas of 5 feet or less are expected. Winds will increase on Thursday, resulting in slightly higher seas. A cold front could push into the coastal waters on Friday or early Saturday. Chance for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms on Tuesday with low PoPs (less than 20%) expected for the rest of the work week. 24 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 82 69 85 69 / 80 60 20 10 Houston (IAH) 83 71 86 72 / 70 80 60 20 Galveston (GLS) 80 72 80 72 / 40 60 60 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ214- 313-337-338-437>439. Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for TXZ436>439. Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ437>439. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for GMZ330-335. Small Craft Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for GMZ350-355. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM CDT Monday for GMZ370-375. && $$ SHORT TERM...Fowler LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...Fowler MARINE...24