220 FXUS64 KEPZ 280525 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 1125 PM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 107 PM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024 After Saturday's strong winds, the region will see some relief from the stronger winds for much of the week ahead as the storm track lifts north and our region comes under a deep and dry west flow pattern. This will mean day to day warming of temperatures to well above normal, dry conditions with plenty of sunshine, and lighter winds, despite occasionally breezy afternoon conditions. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 107 PM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024 At 19Z watching the effects of our latest upper level storm system, with the upper trough axis passing over our western zones, and a Pacific front between LSB and DMN, pushing east. We have seen some very light showers over the Lordsburg Playa that kicked up dust with strong microburst winds in the 55-65 mph range. Elsewhere, the strong winds expected are spooling up with areawide gusts in the 30-40 mph range. We expect those to creep up a bit more through the afternoon as the system passes almost overhead, and the fropa passes LRU and ELP. This system will cross the Rockies overnight, and be to our east, in the S and Central Plains by early morning. This will place our region on the backside of this open system, with no backwash, and a deep dry NW flow over the region. This will keep our temperature rebound, from today's cooler conditions, a bit moderated, but we will warm back to seasonal normals for Sunday. We will still have a bit of low level pressure gradient, so still expecting breezy WNW to NW winds across the region in the 15-25 mph range, well below any wind headline threshold. Skies should be dry and mostly clear. Monday through Thursday/Friday the synoptic flow aloft morphs from NW to W to SW, as we see a slow transition from ridge to our west, to flat ridge overhead, to zonal flow, to passing weak shallow Pacific trough. Through this period our weather conditions will be largely uneventful, with day to day warming, light to moderate winds, with afternoon breezy conditions at most, no precipitation, and plenty of sunshine. Winds will be lighter early week, and slowly trend a bit more breezy each day after Tuesday. Friday into Saturday, a Pacific trough passes well to our north with no immediate, or significant, weather effects. However, the GFS does indicate a surface front pushing S and SW down the Central into Southern Plains along the Front Range. At this time the model does push this feature west into our region. This would mean a dryline intrusion into our SACs, Hudsepth, and Otero lowlands. NBM is seeing this and adding some far east zone POPS for our Friday aftn/eve into SAT time periods for those areas. We will watch this for necessary adjustments through the week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 954 PM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the period across all of the TAF sites with CIG FEW150-SCT250. The winds will be generally light AOB 10 kts and out from the Northwest through 17Z. The winds will then become breezy (10 to 15 kts) with gusts up to 25 kts and out from the west thereafter until 01Z. There will be no reduction in the VSBY across the runways. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 107 PM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024 After Saturday's Critical fire weather conditions, with a passing Pacific trough/front, conditions will moderate a bit, due to lighter winds. However, this is the Spring season, and well into Fire Season, with continued typical conditions, keeping fire weather somewhat elevated. The missing piece for critical will be the winds for most areas, for most of the week. Wind speeds will fall short of RFW criteria, but conditions will be very dry, as min RH values fall from the teens into the single-digits for most afternoons, with poor night recoveries. Temperatures will start near normal for Sunday, but warm to 5-10 degrees warmer than the daily averages for the rest of the week. Winds will generally be west or southwest for the bulk of the week. Fairly light winds to start the week, but slowly edging stronger towards late week, with each afternoon seeing some breezy conditions. Friday into Saturday we see potential for a dryline, front to push in from the east into the SACs and surrounding lowlands east of the Rio Grande, that would introduce storm/pcpn chances to those areas, but most of the region would remain warm, dry, and breezy. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 52 80 55 86 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 45 73 49 81 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 46 80 49 85 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 42 75 46 81 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 29 53 35 59 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 45 76 49 82 / 10 0 0 0 Silver City 39 69 43 75 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 42 78 44 84 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 41 74 44 82 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 49 77 54 83 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 42 79 44 85 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 46 79 47 87 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 44 71 49 77 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 47 79 49 86 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 45 76 47 82 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 50 78 54 83 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 41 77 45 82 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 42 79 45 84 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 47 76 49 83 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 43 75 47 81 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 36 66 39 73 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 34 64 38 70 / 10 0 0 0 Timberon 33 63 36 69 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 38 69 41 76 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 39 75 44 81 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 41 76 44 81 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 34 70 38 76 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 36 71 40 78 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 40 76 43 82 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 39 71 44 77 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 39 71 43 77 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 41 75 44 83 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 42 75 45 83 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 41 76 45 83 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 41 71 45 78 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...36-Texeira