283 FXUS64 KBRO 272330 AAA AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 630 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 207 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 South southeast winds will decrease to a moderate breeze tonight as low clouds thicken. Low temps will be in the mid 70s and rip current risk will remain high. The CWA will be in an SPC general thunderstorm outlook for Sunday. The NAM shows a few coastal showers developing overnight, with slightly increased areal coverage on Sunday. A cold front and dry line will lie just upstream on Sunday. The two may merge just north of the CWA, not quite pushing farther south. The NBM squeezes isolated convection out over the Northwest CWA and the Northern Ranchlands Sunday morning, but seems to end it by afternoon. High temperatures will be mostly in the 90s except slightly lower at the coast. Sunday night should be relatively quiet. Low temperatures will be in the 70s. There could be some in and out marine fog. Rip current risk will remain high through Monday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 207 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 As the month of April comes to a close and we open the books to the month of May, a low-amplitude, zonal to at times semi-zonal mid- upper pattern coupled with the lack of any frontal passages as indicated by the global models/ensembles suggest a dry and tranquil weather pattern persisting through the long-term forecast period (Monday through next Saturday). Instability parameters (i.e. SBCAPE values between 2,000-3,000 J/kg, Showalter values between 0 to -6, steep low-level lapse rates between 6-9 C/km, steep mid-level lapse rates between 7-8 C/km) would support the development of some diurnal thunderstorms nearly each day next week especially during peak heating hours. However, with no lifting mechanism in place and an unfavorable jet structure with weak winds aloft, shower and thunderstorm development will be limited. That said, can't rule out an isolated/rogue pop-up shower or thunderstorm developing on nearly any day next week. Maintained low grade (20-30%) PoPs in the grids for parts of next week. Otherwise, expect for dry and tranquil weather conditions to be the theme through next week. Given the meso-scale, synoptic, and mid-upper large scale layout, temperature anomalies are expected to run warmer than normal for late April/early May standards through all of next week and into next weekend. High temperatures are progged to rise into the upper 80s to mid/upper 90s across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley (RGV) during this time period with the warmest temperatures over our western CWA. Overnight low temperatures are expected to range between the low to mid/upper 70s. The humidity will also be in place through the extended with dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 625 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Breezy to windy southeast winds with MVFR/low-end VFR ceilings prevail across Deep South Texas early this evening. MVFR ceilings will build in again this later this evening and tonight. Winds will diminish a bit tonight and won't be as strong on Sunday. Ceilings will scatter out to the west on Sunday, and may include the local aerodromes by late Sunday afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 207 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Tonight through Sunday night...The tight gradient between high pressure across the Gulf of Mexico and lower pressure across the Plains will produce fresh to strong southeast winds and moderate to high seas through tonight. Winds may decrease slightly on Sunday. For now a small craft advisory is in effect for the Laguna Madre through Sunday morning and for the Gulf of Mexico waters through Monday morning. Winds will weaken more Sunday night, but elevated wave heights will likely persist on the Gulf waters into the long term. Monday through Saturday.....Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) conditions will dominate through much if not all of next week into next weekend with moderate winds and seas (i.e. wave heights over the Gulf Waters mainly between 4-6 feet). && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 76 92 76 90 / 0 10 0 20 HARLINGEN 74 94 74 93 / 0 10 10 20 MCALLEN 76 95 76 93 / 0 10 0 20 RIO GRANDE CITY 75 94 73 94 / 0 10 0 20 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 76 82 76 81 / 0 10 10 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 75 90 75 88 / 0 10 10 20 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ254-255. High Rip Current Risk through Monday morning for TXZ451-454-455. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ130-132-135. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for GMZ150-155-170- 175. && $$ SHORT TERM...54-BHM LONG TERM....23-Evbuoma AVIATION...63-KC