804 FXUS63 KPAH 280753 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 253 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A cold front will begin to approach the region tonight bringing numerous showers and thunderstorms through Monday. There is a conditional risk for a few strong to severe storms this evening, mainly in SEMO. Damaging winds and a isolated tornado would be the main concern, but confidence is not the greatest. Widespread severe weather is not anticipated across the rest of the region. - Heavy rainfall is possible tonight with locally 1 to 2 inches of rainfall mainly in SEMO. Isolated flash flooding is possible. - Wind gusts between 25-35 mph are expected today with strong southerly flow. - Tuesday through Thursday will be unseasonably warm with high temperatures back in the 80s. More shower and thunderstorm chances are likely by Thursday and Friday as another cold front approaches. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 251 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 A mid level shortwave will eject across the Plains today as a low pressure system lifts north across Iowa through this evening. A trailing cold front will slowly traverse towards the FA tonight through Monday with numerous showers and thunderstorms. In the wake of the first round of convection this evening, most of the day will be dry as model soundings show a cap between 850-800 mb. Leaned closer to the NBM 50th percentile for maxTs today as the NBM probabilities of exceeding 83-85 degrees are quite high across most of the FA with increasing breaks of sun. Given inverted-v model soundings and strong southerly flow, would expect temps to overachieve a bit today. Conditions will also be breezy with wind gusts between 25-35 mph due to the pressure gradient. As the right entrance region of a 50+ kt jet max at 500 mb approaches Sunday evening combined with PVA, forcing for ascent will lead to increasing 300 mb divergence as the CAMs show a QLCS approaching from the west. Initially, there will be a conditional risk for a few strong to severe storms in SEMO where a narrow axis of higher dewpoints in the mid 60s and MLCAPE of 750-1000 J/kg is progged. However, there is uncertainty if an ongoing MCS over south central Missouri will be sfc based by the time they reach our FA. The 0z HRRR model soundings show a cap just above the sfc that would mean elevated storms and inhibit the severe risk. To a lesser extent, the RAP is also indicating this possibility while the 3km NAM supports sfc based storms. Should severe storms reach our FA, the main concern would be damaging wind gusts with bowing segments and an isolated tornado between 00z to 05z. By the time storms reach the Mississippi, instability wanes quite a bit with any strong to severe storms quickly diminishing for the remainder of the FA. Overall, widespread severe storms is not anticipated, as we are confident they will be confined to mainly a few counties in SEMO should they occur. Heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding will also will be a concern in the aformentioned area as 1-2 inches of QPF is progged by the HREF PMM. Areas near Poplar Bluff in particular will be extra sensitive where the KPAH WSR-88D shows heavy rainfall fell yesterday. As a cold front slowly moves through on Monday, additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible. The shear by this point will be lacking, but there will be enough instability to support general thunder. Monday afternoon into Monday evening in particular is when there might be a slight enhancement to pcpn as a 500 mb impulse ejects out of the southern Plains and provides better lift. MaxTs will be much cooler in the low to mid 70s. Zonal flow aloft Tuesday into Wednesday will allow for much drier conditions with only slight chance NBM PoPs progged. The flow then turns more amplified and unsettled Thursday into Friday as a 500 mb trough digs across the central CONUS. This will mean more unseasonably warm maxTs in the 80s along with more chances for showers and thunderstorms as another cold front eventually moves through. High pressure eventually looks to build in next weekend allowing for drier conditions and cooler maxTs in the 70s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 VFR conditions at all TAF sites through the TAF period with SCT-BKN mid and high clouds. VCTS at KCGI/KMVN after 04z. South winds overnight at 10-15kts with some gusts near 20 kts. LLWS expected at KCGI/KPAH/KMVN through 13z at 020/20040kt. South winds will increase after 13z to 15-20kts with gusts of 25-35kts, decreasing to 10-15kts and becoming less gusty after 22z. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DW AVIATION...RST