023 FXUS63 KFGF 281128 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 628 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Active pattern ahead with multiple chances for precipitation in the next 7 days. && .UPDATE... Issued at 628 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Rain will begin approaching our southern areas in the next few hours. Clouds will remain a constant, making it a dreary, cool Sunday. Forecast remain on track. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 The only location clear this morning is the northern Devils Lake Basin, which we are watching closely for the possibility of fog. Guidance suggests if fog does develop, it will likely be patchy instead of dense. Other locations are socked in with stratus ahead of our next system incoming today into tomorrow. Synoptically, The ejecting low will be making its way towards us this morning, and rain chances will increase with it from south to north. Southwest flow will stick around after that into mid-week, allowing a active pattern with multiple shortwaves moving through to set up more rain chances into next week. The today into tomorrow system has decent probabilities for seeing some much needed moisture in our area. Probabilities for seeing greater than or equal to 0.5" in 48 hours (through Monday evening) are 20 - 30% along and North of HWY-2, 30 - 50% between HWY-2 and I- 94, and 50 - 80% south of I-94. Once we bump those probs up to 1" or more, chances drop to 30 - 40%, and only south of I-94. Locations between I-94 and HWY-2 have about a 10 - 20% chance of exceeding 1". Additionally, some guidance is showing the possibility for some snow/mixed precipitation in northwestern Minnesota as temperatures cool Sunday night. As of now, accumulations look to be a dusting or less in these areas, but don't be surprised if you spot some flakes in the precipitation late Sunday/early Monday. After this system, the next chance for rain comes on Tuesday when a shortwave comes through the area. From looking at guidance, multiple shortwaves are going to run together it seems heading into the weekend. Temperatures are going to run cooler than average as well, with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s. After a rainy weekend, temperatures will rebound back into the 50s and 60s for highs by mid-week, with lows in the 30s and 40s. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 628 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Conditions will oscillate between MVFR and IFR today, approaching LIFR into Monday morning. RA will move in from south to north over the day today. Winds will remain steady at 5-10kts out of the east through Monday morning. Visibilities will decrease in heavy showers, but lowest in guidance is around 4 SM right now. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE... DISCUSSION...AH AVIATION...AH