134 FXUS63 KDDC 272240 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 540 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a 40-60% chance for strong to severe thunderstorms across central Kansas and a small portion of west central Kansas through this evening. - Unseasonably warm temperatures are forecast mid-week with thunderstorm chances (30-50%) as well. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1205 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Mesoscale Discussion Severe thunderstorms are well underway across portions of western and northwest OK, moving northeast towards the far southeast zones of our CWA. Given these storms have already produced severe hail up to the size of golf balls, and will remain in a highly favorable environment characterized by 2500-3000 J/Kg of MLCAPE and 45-55 kts of 0-6km bulk shear, they will continue to pose a severe hail and wind gust risk as they propagate northeast. A secondary area of severe thunderstorm development appears possible later this afternoon along a N-S oriented dryline located just east of US-283 as latest HREF suggests isolated to scattered supercells will initiate around 3-5pm CDT. Strong instability and deep-layer shear will support a large hail and damaging wind gust risk. That said, the combination of anvil debris and thunderstorm outflow spreading northwest from the convection over OK may cause storms to struggle or prevent them entirely. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 218 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 WV imagery indicates a strong southwesterly flow aloft prevailing across the Western High Plains downstream of an amplified upper level trough of low pressure shifting slowly east through the Four Corners Region. Near the surface, an area of low pressure is situated across extreme southwest Kansas with an attendant frontal boundary extending northeast into central Kansas. A sharpening dryline extends from southwest Kansas southward into the extreme eastern portion of the Texas Panhandle. Thunderstorm chances (40-60%) remain mainly for portions of central Kansas through this evening as a series of H5 vort maxima continue to eject northeast out of the Southern Rockies ahead of an approaching upper level trough. Based on radar trends/CAMs, ongoing/developing thunderstorms are progged to lift north-northeast off a nearly stationary dryline in the extreme eastern Texas Panhandle and through northwest Oklahoma into south central Kansas mid/late afternoon. Supported by a strong +100kt subtropical jet, MLCAPE values upward of 3000-3500 J/kg, and sufficient deep layer shear (effective shear values upward of 55-60kt), storms have the potential to become severe with large hail (2 to 3 inches) and damaging winds the main threat. To a lesser extent, a tornado threat exists with the latest mesoanalysis (19Z) showing 0-1km SRH nearing 100 m2/s2 in central Kansas. As for the best chance for appreciable rainfall, the latest HREF indicates a 30-50% probability of 6-hr QPF exceeding 0.15 of an inch in a corridor generally confined to central and south central Kansas with much of southwest Kansas remaining relatively dry behind the dryline. Fairly seasonal temperatures are forecast tonight as a cold front pushes through western Kansas overnight, allowing cooler air to surge southward into the area and dropping H85 temperatures well below 10C. With the HREF indicating better than a 90% probability of temperatures falling below 50F in west central and extreme southwest Kansas to only a 10 to 20% probability in south central Kansas, look for lows tonight down into the 40s(F) across much of area with the lower 50s(F) in south central Kansas. Cooler temperatures can be expected Sunday with the HREF painting only 10-20% probability of highs exceeding 65F west central Kansas to an 80-90% probability of highs exceeding 70F in south central Kansas. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 218 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 A relatively dry pattern is forecast through the middle part of next week as medium range ensembles indicate an upper level trough lifting northeast into the Upper Midwest Monday, giving way to a zonal flow aloft across the Western High Plains for a couple days before a southwesterly flow aloft returns ahead of an approaching shortwave trough. Thunderstorm chances (30-50%) return to central Kansas and portions of southwest Kansas late Wednesday/early Thursday as another upper level shortwave digs southeast through the Great Basin, setting up an increasingly difluent southwest flow aloft and sending an attendant cold front into western Kansas. Prevailing southerlies will draw ample moisture up into eastern/central Kansas, increasing instability. Although plenty of uncertainty abounds, mainly due to timing of the system, the best chance for thunderstorms is still expected to be across central Kansas sometime Wednesday night into Thursday where the NBM 4.1 paints a 30-40% probability of 12-hr QPF exceeding 0.1 of an inch by early Thursday morning. Temperatures rebound Monday as lee side troughing develops in eastern Colorado, returning southerlies to western Kansas, helping push H85 temperatures up into the mid-teens(C) in central Kansas to near 20C out by the Colorado border. With the NBM 4.1 indicating a 60-70% probability of temperatures exceeding 75F in west central and central Kansas to a 90% probability of that in southern southwest Kansas, expect widespread afternoon highs in the 70s(F) with near 80F along the Oklahoma border. The warming trend continues through mid-week with temperatures well into the 80s(F) for much of southwest Kansas. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 538 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Scattered thunderstorms will be possible around the HYS terminal this evening with the remaining TAF sites remaining dry. Low clouds are expected to envelop all sites besides the LBL terminal overnight bringing MVFR to IFR conditions. A cold front will move through the area shifting winds to the north overnight. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for KSZ061>063-074>077-084>087. && $$ UPDATE...Springer SHORT TERM...JJohnson LONG TERM...JJohnson AVIATION...Hovorka_42