350 FXUS63 KBIS 281454 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 954 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - High chances (60 to 90 percent) for rain across south central North Dakota from around the Missouri River and east into the James River Valley this afternoon into tonight, with medium chances (30 to 50 percent) elsewhere across central North Dakota. Dry across western North Dakota. - An active weather pattern will be over the region through next week, with daily chances for precipitation and slightly below normal temperatures. - Critical fire weather conditions will be possible across southwest and far south central North Dakota during the day Tuesday, due to gusty westerly winds and low relative humidity. && .UPDATE... Issued at 946 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 For the morning updated we blended in some of the latest short term guidance for pops through the day. This delayed the onset a bit in the far south central into the southern JRV this morning. Also adjusted cloud cover base on latest satellite imagery. Updated text products will be transmitted shortly. UPDATE Issued at 624 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Added some patchy/areas of fog southwest for a few hours this morning, and also modified sky cover to better match satellite imagery and trends. Otherwise the forecast remains in good shape for this morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 410 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Currently, S/WV mid level ridge over the region with an upper level low developing into the Central Plains. Sfc ridge across the Northern Plains results in light winds and temperatures in the 30s. Area of low stratus over south central ND including the James River Valley early this morning, with the clouds slowly developing west and slightly north. Increasing clouds also expected from the south this morning as the upper low moves into central Nebraska and lead waves lift north ahead of the low. The closed low will continue to slowly lift north/northeast today across central Nebraska, then into the eastern Dakotas tonight. Associated sfc low will track slightly east of the upper low, with a sfc ridge remaining over the western Dakotas. This setup will keep precipitation chances confined to mainly far south central and eastern areas of the state, with the James River Valley seeing the higher chances and QPF potential through tonight. Western and portions of central ND look to remain mainly dry, more under the influence of the sfc ridge, along with less cloud cover and warmer temperatures. A rain/snow mix will is also forecast for tonight/Monday morning across the James River Valley as boundary layer temperatures cool into the 30s with temperatures aloft already below freezing. No impacts expected. After precipitation moves off to our east Monday morning, a S/WV mid level ridge will move into the region, providing a brief period of clearing and dry weather for Monday afternoon, along with temperatures rebounding into the upper 60s west, but will remain cooler in the east (low/mid 50s) due to lingering cloud cover and lack of WAA. A very active weather pattern will then be in place for the remainder of the work week, as an upper level jet steers multiple waves across the Northern Plains within a broad quasi- stationary trough pattern over the northwest and north central CONUS. Daily chances for precipitation are forecast, along with temperatures at or slightly below normal (highs in the 50s to lower 60s). The first of these waves will bring high chances for showers (60-90%) across all but the southwest Monday night into Tuesday, with a 30-50% chance for at least half an inch of rain across northwest and north central ND along and north of Highway 2. On the backside of this sytem's associated sfc trough, strong westerly winds will develop during the day Tuesday, especially west into south central areas of ND, where eventually we will likely need wind headlines if current trends hold. In addition, models remain consistent (if not trending drier) with low relative humidity below 30 percent collocated with the strongest winds, and as low as the upper teens far southwest. Thus will continue to mention critical fire weather possible in the Fire Weather Forecast and HWO with this product issuance. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 624 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Low VFR to MVFR ceilings continue to impact KBIS and KJMS this morning, and looks to continue through much of the 12Z period. Currently LIFR and below at KDIK in fog and low stratus, though should become mainly IFR/MVFR conditions once low clouds move in here this morning. VFR currently at KMOT and KXWA, which will persist through the 12Z period. A storm system lifting north into the Central Plains will spread clouds and rain showers north into the region today and tonight. Periods of light rain will mainly be possible at KJMS and KBIS, with some visibility reduction possible at KJMS later in the day Sunday and Sunday night where the heavier showers are expected. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...TWH DISCUSSION...NH AVIATION...NH