594 FXUS63 KARX 281059 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 559 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Heavy rain axis has shifted south of the area. A more widespread rain of 0.5-1" is expected through Monday, with most falling during the afternoon and evening today. The risk of storms being severe is low. - An active week is expected with periodic rain and storm chances with the next chance coming Tuesday/Tuesday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 318 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Widespread Storms Today into early Monday: As the surface low moves northeast towards the Upper Midwest region, dewpoints and lift will increase. Dewpoints increase as the warm sector pushes northward, while lift increases due to waves of energy originating from the surface low passing through the area. Current CAM guidance has a swath of widespread showers and storms moving into northeast Iowa and southern Wisconsin by mid-morning today and pushing northward through the afternoon. As this band moves northward during the afternoon, moisture advection increases from the south, resulting in PWAT values between 1" and 1.4". These values are in the NAEFS 90th to 99th percentiles for PWATS. The highest PWATs will be along the stationary boundary in far southern Wisconsin, northern Illinois and eastern Iowa. Not much is in the way for instability, as the boundary stays to our southeast for most of the day, at least with this first round of storms. Instability will increase a little as the surface low pushes northeastward. SBCAPE and MUCAPE will be around 500J/kg heading into the late afternoon and lasting through the evening. This appears to be the most likely time for any severe weather to occur. Not much is expected given the lack of instability and daytime convection, however with the surface low close by and good amounts of shear, there remains a marginal risk for severe weather along and south of I-94. As far as precipitation goes, most areas look to have 0.5 to 1" of rain from today into Monday. The latest HREF probabilities have between a 20 and 40% for at least an 1" of rain to occur. Active Pattern Next Week: Next week is looking like another active period as the region ends up being in a predominant zonal flow. This flow pattern will result in periodic shortwave disturbances to bring more precipitation chances throughout the week. The first wave to move through is expected on Tuesday. Current guidance has a compact shortwave moving through the area. This will be accompanied by good moisture advection from the Gulf of Mexico ahead of a cold front Tuesday afternoon/evening. By Tuesday afternoon, the cold front will be near I-35, where the greatest lift and instability will be at, due to being in close proximity to the shortwave. MLCAPE values of around 500J/kg are expected across southern Minnesota at this time as well. Given these dynamics, SPC has gone with a Marginal for portions of southeast Minnesota. CSU severe probabilities also have a 5 to 15% chance of severe weather occurring late Tuesday. There is a lot of uncertainty with what happens after Tuesday. Zonal flow will continue. Ensemble guidance has differing solutions with a slight lean into a trough moving through the region on Thursday and another on Saturday. Confidence is not low, however the week will remain active with multiple chances of precipitation. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 559 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Showers will increase in coverage through the morning and continue at least into this evening before coverage begins to lessen. Isolated storms are possible this afternoon into tonight (20-40% chance), but confidence in timing/coverage is too low to mention. Flying conditions will deteriorate with ceilings likely trending LIFR/IFR through the day, possibly MVFR at times at KLSE with IFR/MVFR visibilities at times as low-level saturate with showers. Winds will increase from the east with some gusts in the 20-30 kt range before diminishing this evening and shifting south/southeast. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Cecava AVIATION...JM