329 FXUS63 KABR 280218 AAB AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 918 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Active pattern continues with additional chances for rain Sunday, Tuesday, and Saturday. Rainfall amounts for Sunday peak around 1 inch in northeast SD, with lower amounts in western and central SD. The systems for the rest of the week have much lower overall moisture potential. - Below to near normal temperatures through the extended. && .UPDATE... Issued at 917 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Beginning to see some drizzle develop across parts of the CWA, so have added a mention into the forecast. No other changes made at this time. && .SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 302 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Though the first system has exited, another is set to move in late tonight through Sunday night and bring some additional rain to the region. Clouds remain socked in through the short term. WPC QPF amounts have decreased/shifted a tad but everywhere east of the James is still expected to see over half an inch of rain Sunday. Temperatures will remain well below normal with highs only in the upper 40s to near 50 on Sunday as a deep upper low spins over SD/NE. It appears that this forecast area will miss out on any spring storms with this system as we stay on the cool side of the low. A slight shift to the south and east in the track may keep north central SD mostly dry except Sunday night when wraparound moisture drops in from the north with the sfc low over northern IA/southern MN. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 302 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 The long term portion of the forecast begins on Monday with an area of low pressure and upper level trough departing the region to the northeast, with some lingering showers Monday morning. After a brief break with pcpn, another storm system should progress eastward across the region on Tuesday, bringing the potential for showers, and perhaps a few thunderstorms to eastern SD and western MN. The probability of seeing 0.05 inches of QPF over a 6 hour period is 25 to 40 percent, mainly along and east of the James River valley on Tuesday. West to northwesterly winds will increase behind a frontal boundary Tuesday afternoon, with locations along and west of the Missouri River having a 50 percent chance of seeing gusts exceed 40 knots. The NBM is trending drier Tuesday night through Thursday, with pops less than 20 percent. Another storm system crossing south of the region Thursday night through Saturday may provide more pcpn to the forecast area. While the NBM maintains high pops, 35-50 percent Friday night, some of the 12Z deterministic models are coming in mostly dry during that time period. However, while the deterministic models are trending drier, the grand ensemble maintains a higher potential, greater than 30 percent, of seeing pcpn Friday night through Saturday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 625 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG MVFR cigs will remain over the area tonight, with the exception of parts of north central South Dakota, where VFR conditions will prevail. Rain will overspread the area from south to the north beginning late tonight, then will continue through the day Sunday. IFR cigs and periods of MVFR vsbys will accompany the rain. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Parkin SHORT TERM...Wise LONG TERM...SD AVIATION...Parkin