031 FXUS62 KRAH 280550 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 150 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will slowly drift southward off the mid-Atlantic coast today, settling off the Southeast United States tonight through Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... As 915 PM Saturday... Skies remain mostly cloud across the area this evening. However, models indicate possible thinning in both the mid and high level clouds by daybreak as the better moisture shifts offshore. Light southeasterly winds will result in milder overnight temps. Lows generally 55-60. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 135 PM Saturday... The offshore surface high pressure will drift south on Sunday, aiding to shift low level winds from the south to the southwest. The westerly component will reduce the marine influence, although overall dewpoints will be on the increase. However, no chance of rain is in the forecast for tomorrow. Sunday will be the first in a string of warm days, with highs ranging from the upper 70s to the lower 80s. Overnight lows should be about a category warmer than last night, varying from 55 to 60. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 222 PM Saturday... Monday will see continued ridging aloft while surface high pressure remains off the Southeast coast. This will yield another dry day with highs in the low to mid 80s, while lows will be mild in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Upstream from NC however, a developing southern stream trough is likely to produce showers and thunderstorms across portions of the Deep South on Monday, the remnants of which are likely to make Tuesday's forecast particularly challenging. The trough will shift eastward Tuesday morning and is likely to cross the mountains into the Piedmont late Tuesday afternoon/evening. Warm/moist advection ahead of the trough will likely allow for MLCAPEs to climb into the 250-500 J/KG range, but there are model scenarios which also bring considerable remnant cloudiness into the area during the day which would limit the amount of instability present. Similarly, other scenarios develop convection along the mountains but show it struggling to maintain itself as it downslopes into the Piedmont. NBM guidance still suggests 20-30 PoPs across the western Piedmont, with lower values to the east, and that fits well with today's 00Z/12Z ensemble data. Temperatures will be a challenge but even with the potential for increasing clouds throughout the day, highs should easily reach the mid 80s (possibly upper 80s in the southeast). Weak upper ridging will follow the departing trough across the western Piedmont on Wednesday, although the upper low will be slow to move off the coast and there is the potential for at least some scattered showers across the eastern half of the forecast area during the day Wednesday. Temps remaining above normal in the mid/upper 80s. Forecast confidence begins to decrease for the Thursday - Saturday period as an upper low ejects from the Central Rockies and broad southwesterly flow takes hold over the southeastern CONUS. A series of weak waves embedded within the flow are likely to move through the area Thursday and Friday, ahead of a sharper longwave trough axis on Saturday. Ensemble solutions with respect to rainfall timing vary quite a bit, but all generally agree that amounts will be light. 20-40 PoPs will be maintained primarily during diurnally favored time periods Thursday through Saturday, along with above normal temperatures in the low to mid 80s. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 145 AM Sunday... 24 hour TAF period: High confidence VFR conditions will prevail through the 24-hr TAF period. Skies should be mostly clear through this morning, with just a few high clouds overhead. A few/sct mid clouds may develop invof KRDU/KFAY mid-day. Winds mainly in the 3-8 kt range overnight should increase by 2-5 kts late this morn/early aft and veer 20-40 degrees. Winds should then decrease a couple/few kts after sunset. Outlook: Some medium-range guidance is still hinting at some moisture in the low levels invof KRWI and KFAY Mon and Tue mornings, however it does not appear saturated enough to result in any restrictions at this time. Otherwise, largely VFR conditions are expected through Tue. Generally dry weather is expected through Mon. The next chance for showers will be diurnal convection Tue (mainly west) and Wed (mainly east. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Green NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...Green LONG TERM...Leins AVIATION...KC