374 FXUS62 KMLB 280806 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 406 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 243 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024 ...High Risk for Rip Currents/Rough Surf at Area Beaches Again Today... ...Poor to Hazardous Boating Conditions across the Local Coastal Waters.... ...Breezy, Windy, Gusty East Winds Again Today... Current...Deep and moderately strong onshore flow continues across ECFL and the adjacent coastal waters early this morning. ERLY winds around 10 kts over the interior with some higher gusts, and 15-20 mph along the coast with G25-30 mph. A few light sprinkles and showers noted on KMLB 88D across the local coastal waters. It will be possible for a few of these to reach coastal locales ahead of sunrise, but any amounts above a trace will remain light. Conditions mainly dry over land. The onshore flow is aiding in keeping temperatures mild and well into the 60s for eventual mins, perhaps a few L70s along the Space/Treasure coasts and adjacent barrier islands. Satellite imagery, again, shows high clouds intruding from the west with some low-level stratocu pushing toward the east coast. Today-Tonight...Shortwave ridging aloft weakens across the FL peninsula and begins to push offshore over the next 24 hours. There will still be some mid-level impulses traversing the area, but of little effect to our local weather. Weak surface high pressure off of the mid Atlc coast continues to weaken slowly and slides south to off of the Carolina coast. This will continue to keep an ERLY wind component across the area with continued tight pressure gradient. We will again see breezy/gusty conditions with speeds 15-20 mph and higher gusts to 25 to 30 mph at times. The gradient is forecast to finally begin to relax this evening with speeds diminishing to 5-10 mph over the interior and 10-15 mph along the coast. For clouds there will be some periods, again, of stratocu pushing onto the coast and further inland, with higher clouds overhead streaming west to east. Initial PWATs around an inch will gradually lower to 0.80-0.90 inches this afternoon/tonight. While most locations will remain dry, we do advertise some sprinkles/brief light showers with PoPs below 20pct. With drier air filtering into the area from the east, our best chances for light precip will likely be this morning and early afternoon. Afternoon highs in the U70s to around 80F at the immediate coast with some L80s inland; perhaps a couple M80s well into the interior. Overnight lows mainly in the L-M60s; perhaps some U50s for normally cooler locations of the interior. Barrier islands may realize U60s. Expect another HIGH risk for numerous, strong, life-threatening rip currents at ALL central FL Atlc beaches today. Rough surf will also be present. Entering the surf zone today will be strongly discouraged! This Week...A stagnant pattern will remain in place over the next 7 days, with very little day to day change. An upper level ridge remains anchored over the eastern CONUS, with the surface high pressure offshore from the Carolinas drifting only slightly seaward by mid week. The pressure gradient will begin to relax on Monday, but still, deep east to southeasterly flow will hold steady towards next weekend. Will continue to carry a slight chance for showers over the Atlantic waters each day as trapped moisture wraps around the periphery of the high. On Monday, mentionable rain chances will be present along the entire east central FL coastline, retreating just to the Treasure Coast on Tuesday. No thunder is forecast, and any showers should be very brief and quick moving. Temperatures will climb a few degrees each day, with the low 80s at the coast and mid/upper 80s inland on Monday approaching 90 degrees by Wed/Thu (still cooler at the coast with the oceanic influence). Lows persist at seasonable values in the mid 60s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 243 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Still mainly VFR conds, but perhaps some brief MVFR in/around any brief very ISOLD shower activity along the coast. Drier air poised to move into the region from the east this afternoon so nuisance sprinkles/light shower activity should be diminishing inland from the coast as activity of any kind moves westward. Another day of a tight pressure gradient in place as ERLY winds increase 15-20 kts with G25-30 kts at times. Winds do diminish a bit thru the evening becoming 5-10 kts interior and 10-15 kts at the coast with some continued higher gusts along the coast. && .MARINE... Issued at 243 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Today-Tonight...Poor to Hazardous boating conditions early in the period. Have extended the Small Craft Advisory for offshore marine legs and near shore Treasure Coast thru 15Z/11AM this morning as seas continue to build to 6-8 ft here. Small craft should Exercise Caution near shore between Sebastian Inlet and Flagler Beach for seas building to 5-6 ft here. Seas will continue to only slowly subside into tonight. Initial ERLY winds 15-20 kts will be slow to diminish during the day. Poor boating conditions will continue across the Gulf Stream this evening as seas build up to 6 feet. Isolated sprinkles/showers remain possible. Monday-Wednesday...A relaxing pressure gradient as the surface high pressure drifts seaward will allow for improving boating conditions through mid week. Seas of 4-5 ft on Monday will subside to 3-4 ft late Tuesday as east to southeast winds up to 15 knots drop to 10-15 knots through mid week. Isolated showers over the Atlantic waters will be possible each day, but lightning is not forecast. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 243 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Today...The pressure gradient remains tight across ECFL, again. ERLY wind speeds 15-20 mph with gusts to 25-30 mph, especially later this morning and afternoon. Winds do diminish this evening, gradually, 5-10 mph interior and 10-15 mph coast (with higher gusts here). Min aftn RH's 40-45pct well into interior and 45- 55pct towards the coast. Dispersions remain VG-EX! Few sprinkles, brief light showers around again this morning, early afternoon, but any already very ISOLD trend should be diminishing further into the afternoon as drier air moves into the area. This Week...While breezy conditions early in the week begin to subside, fire sensitive conditions will continue as a warming trend commences. Minimum RH values will drop below 40% across the interior each afternoon, most prominently across Lake and western Osceola counties. Light passing showers will be possible on Monday, but otherwise rain remains out of the forecast this week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 79 64 81 65 / 20 0 10 0 MCO 81 63 86 65 / 10 0 10 0 MLB 79 66 81 67 / 20 0 20 10 VRB 81 64 83 65 / 20 0 20 10 LEE 83 63 86 65 / 10 0 0 0 SFB 81 63 85 65 / 10 0 10 0 ORL 82 64 86 66 / 10 0 10 0 FPR 80 64 83 65 / 20 0 20 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for AMZ550-552. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for AMZ555-570- 572-575. && $$ SHORT TERM...Sedlock LONG TERM...Smith AVIATION...Sedlock