101 FXUS62 KMFL 271658 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1258 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Sunday) Issued at 1255 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024 South Florida sits on the periphery of surface high pressure centered over the eastern seaboard of the United States. An area of low pressure over the central United States will begin to pinch the high southeastward. With the persistent easterly wind flow around the high, the region will remain in a warm, moist airmass through the weekend. Shallow Atlantic showers will be possible through Sunday with on and off light rain in the forecast with a focus for Southeast Florida. As the gradient tightens with the low approaching from the northwest and the center of the high is pinched closer to our area, the winds will continue to build through this afternoon into tonight. Gusts of 25 to 30 mph here at midday could be 35 to 45 mph along the Atlantic coast tonight into Sunday morning. Accordingly, a Wind Advisory has been issued for coastal Miami- Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach Counties. Temperatures remain warm with widespread 80s for afternoon maximum values this afternoon and Sunday. Dewpoint values have been trending towards the drier end of guidance, so favored the NBM 10th percentile in a blend of the NBM and previous forecast for continuity. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 257 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024 A rather stout mid level ridge over the Eastern Seaboard on Monday will slowly start to shift into the western Atlantic heading into Tuesday and into the middle of the week. At the surface, a strong area of high pressure off of the Southeast coast will remain in place through the middle of the week, however, it will be weakening heading into Tuesday and Wednesday. This will allow for the pressure gradient across South Florida to decrease which will cause the winds to gradually diminish as they veer and become east southeasterly. While most of the region will remain dry with high pressure nearby, some lower level moisture will be taking place during this time frame. This will be just enough moisture to support some isolated shower development along the east southeasterly breeze mainly over the Atlantic waters and east coast. With instability lacking across the region, any shower that does develop will be low topped and short lived. High temperatures through the early and middle portion of the week will generally rise to around 80 along the east coast and into the upper 80s to around 90 across Southwest Florida. The weather pattern does not change much heading towards the end of the week as mid level ridging continues across South Florida. At the surface, high pressure in the western Atlantic will keep easterly wind flow in place during this time frame. While most areas will remain dry, isolated shower activity still cannot be ruled out along the easterly breeze over the Atlantic waters and east coast. High temperatures towards the end of the week will start to warm up a bit as mid level ridging strengthens. These temperatures will rise into the lower 80s along the east coast, and into the lower 90s across interior portions of Southwest Florida. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1255 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Generally VFR through some Atlantic showers could briefly impact terminals. Gusty easterly wind will be sustained through most of the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 1255 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Conditions will deteriorate as gusty winds develop with frequent gusts to gale over the Atlantic waters west of the Providence Channel tonight. In addition, seas in the Atlantic will rise to 8-10 ft by Sunday. These elevated winds and seas should begin to subside by the early to middle portion of next week. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1255 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024 There is a high risk for rip currents along the Atlantic coast as gusty onshore winds will be present through the weekend. In addition, these gusty winds will assist in the formation of larger waves in the surf zone up to 7-8ft this weekend. Therefore, a high surf advisory is in effect for Broward and Palm Beach county beaches this weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 73 81 72 81 / 20 20 10 10 West Kendall 70 82 68 83 / 20 20 10 10 Opa-Locka 72 83 71 83 / 20 10 10 10 Homestead 71 81 71 82 / 20 20 10 10 Fort Lauderdale 73 80 72 81 / 20 10 10 10 N Ft Lauderdale 73 80 72 81 / 20 10 10 10 Pembroke Pines 72 83 71 84 / 20 10 10 10 West Palm Beach 71 80 70 81 / 10 10 10 10 Boca Raton 71 82 71 82 / 20 10 10 10 Naples 69 88 68 86 / 10 10 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ168-172-173. High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ168-172. Wind Advisory until 11 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ168-172-173. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ630. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for AMZ650-651- 670-671. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 11 AM EDT Monday for AMZ650-651-670-671. Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ650-651-670-671. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT Sunday for GMZ656-657-676. && $$ SHORT TERM...RAG LONG TERM....CWC AVIATION...RAG