069 FXUS61 KRLX 272321 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 721 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front lifts north of the area today, continuing a warming trend that leads to hot temperatures Sunday and Monday. Next chance for showers and storms will be Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 710 PM Saturday... The forecast is on track and only nudged POPs slightly to better represent the current observations and trends over the next several hours. As chances for any rain or storms taper off, little in the way of any precip chances going into tonight and for the overnight. Winds should stay somewhat elevated to deter any fog formation so left out mention except for the northeast mountains near southern Pocahontas County. As of 1245 PM Saturday... Certainly a beautiful day out there with filtered sunshine and temperatures currently in the upper 70s in the lowlands and the 60s-70s in the mountains. Dry weather should continue through the remainder of the day with just a slight chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm due to weak energy aloft. Another sunny and warm day is expected Sunday as the ridge aloft strengthens. Highs will reach the middle 80s in the lowlands and the 70s-80s in the mountains. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 215 PM Saturday... Under the strong influence of high pressure and S-SW'ly flow, we'll remain unseasonably warm through the short-term, with lower elevation highs from the mid-80s to around 90 degrees. Highs on Monday are currently forecast to get close to records for most of our climate sites - please see the climate section below for a list of Monday records vs. the current forecast. Clear skies are expected to start Sunday night, with some fair- weather cumulus then developing during the day on Monday. We can expect to see some showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms, work into the Mid-Ohio Valley region Monday evening and night as a weakening front approaches from the west. With greater moisture availability and modest instability during the day on Tuesday, more widespread showers and storms are anticipated. However, with only 25-30kts of 0-6km shear expected over the area, severe storms are not expected, though some could maintain themselves for a while with the modest shear and CAPE. The increased precip and cloud cover, along with the week front, may keep most of the area in the 70s on Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 100 PM Saturday... The weak front looks to either wash out across the area or skirt by to the north Tuesday night. As it does so, a few showers may initially linger over WV and VA, especially in and near the mountains, but they are forecast to dissipate by midnight or soon after. We'll be fully under the influence of high pressure centered over the Southeast US for Wednesday and Thursday, and temps will respond accordingly. Lowland highs on Wednesday look to be in the low to mid 80s, and most areas will tack on about 5 more degrees to those highs for Thursday. Even the mountains will be mostly into the 70s on Thursday, in a sure sign that summer is on the way. A few isolated showers are possible over the higher terrain on Wednesday and Thursday. by later Thursday afternoon, a trough moving into the Midwest may allow for some shower and thunderstorm activity to trigger across our western counties. While the global models do show some instability across the area, we're far enough away from any appreciable shear associated with the trough that severe storms don't appear to be a concern at this time. Showers and storms may then persist across the area through Friday, but again, as best we can tell as of now for a Day 7 forecast, severe storms don't appear in the mix. The highs on Friday may drop a bit compared to Thurs, but that is likely owing largely to the expectation of some ongoing precip across the area. && .AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 720 PM Saturday... VFR expected this entire period with mostly southerly wind, light, around 5KT for tomorrow. Only expecting some low cu during the daytime and some mid clouds floating around. Mainly clear skies, SCT at most for the sites. You can expect some llws across HTS/PKB for the overnight as surface winds remain calm and upper level winds are around 40KT. Did want to leave mention of a shower at EKN over the next few hours, but the probability is relatively low, therefore took it out. They could however potentially see some fog as they have had some previous rainfall and will clear out by morning. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR or IFR fog/low stratus cannot be ruled out at KEKN early Sunday morning. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 EDT 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z MONDAY... No widespread IFR conditions expected. && .CLIMATE... Mondays forecast highs vs. records for the CLI sites SITE Forecast Record (Year Set) Records Began Charleston 88F 90F (1996) 1901 Huntington 90F 91F (1914) 1897 Parkersburg 87F 86F (1991) 1926 Clarksburg 86F 93F (1986) 1922 Beckley 84F 85F (2017) 1893 Elkins 85F 87F (1996) 1899 && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FK/JMC NEAR TERM...JZ/JMC SHORT TERM...FK LONG TERM...FK AVIATION...JZ CLIMATE...