423 FXUS61 KILN 280549 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 149 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Southerly flow will keep temperatures well above normal into the early part of the week. A weak cold front will cross the region late Monday night into Tuesday with showers and some thunderstorms occurring well out ahead of the front. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Southwest flow will continue aloft through tonight with some very weak embedded mid level energy lifting northeast across Indiana and northern Ohio. This could lead to a few showers across mainly our northwestern areas where we will linger a 20 pop into the overnight hours. Temperatures will remain mild with overnight lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... The region will remain in the same airmass through the period. South winds will become breezy again during the day. At this point, not seeing any mid level systems, so any clouds should primarily be diurnal cumulus. With fewer clouds, temperatures are forecast to be a bit warmer with highs in the lower to mid 80s. Lows will once again be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A weak frontal system approaches the Great Lakes on Monday with very warm temperatures ahead of it. Increasing cloud cover across the west may limit highs by a few degrees there, but generally nudged highs up toward the NBM 50th percentile (2-3 degrees warmer than the blend). This yields a high in the mid to upper 80s across the east. The front and associated precipitation moves through Monday night. Weak high pressure will briefly visit the Ohio Valley Tuesday before exiting to the east by Tuesday night into early Wednesday. After a brief "cool down" Tuesday under the surface ridge it will warm into the 80s once again for Wednesday and Thursday. Next organized frontal system approaches to close the work week. Details in the guidance become uncertain as to how progressive this system will be. Therefore, have kept a chance of precipitation to close the extended period. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Mid level ridge to build north into the region with precipitation staying north of the TAF sites thru Sunday. In the warm air mass expect mid and high level clouds at times through the TAF period. Some LLWS will be possible through early this morning. Southwest winds will gust up to 25 kts from mid morning through the afternoon. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon and night. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...AR