Thu May 16 05:26:03 EDT 2024

Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
425 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Far Southeast Oklahoma into Northwest Arkansas.
ONSET...Mid to Late Afternoon.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Mainly North of Interstate 40.
ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across eastern
Oklahoma and into far northwest Arkansas, with a medium chance for
additional development through the morning hours. A low chance 
for an isolated strong to marginally severe thunderstorm will
exist through midday. Additional thunderstorms are expected to
develop mid to late afternoon and continue into the evening and
overnight, focused across southeast Oklahoma and into northwest
and west central Arkansas. Hail up to the size of half dollars and
locally damaging wind gusts near 60 mph will be the main hazards
with the strongest storms this afternoon and evening. Locally 
heavy rain and a low chance of flash flooding will also be 
concerns.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
SATURDAY...No Hazards.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorm chances will persist into Friday and Friday night, 
with a decreasing trend from west to east as the upper level storm
system shifts east of the area. The stronger storms Friday could
produce hail up to the size of half dollars and wind gusts in the
60 to 70 mph range, especially in areas south and east of
Interstate 44. 

Above normal temperatures and dry weather will persist for the 
weekend. Both Sunday night and Monday night, the southern end of 
expected thunderstorm complexes to the north of the Kansas and 
Missouri borders may affect parts of northeast Oklahoma and 
northwest Arkansas as well. A cold front Tuesday should increase 
the shower and thunderstorm chances areawide, as well as bringing 
cooler temperatures to the region. Severe weather may accompany
the Tuesday thunderstorms, although details are uncertain at this
time.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.