735 FNUS53 KAPX 201858 FWFAPX Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan National Weather Service Gaylord MI 258 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 ...Strong to severe storms possible Tuesday night... .DISCUSSION... Deep moisture is brought to the region in response to increasing southerly flow through Tuesday night. A brief switch to west- northwesterly flow will occur behind a surface low expected to track through the region tonight, but southerly winds will return Tuesday morning and increase through Tuesday night. A few lingering showers and possible embedded thunderstorms exists tonight, but chances diminish as the night goes on. Another round of showers and potentially strong to severe storms are expected for Tuesday night. RH values are expected to be above 30 percent through Tuesday night. MIZ016-017-021>023-099-210815- Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency Counties- 258 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 .TONIGHT... Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Numerous rain showers until 2400. Isolated thunderstorms. Widespread rain showers after 2400. Min Temperature.....55-60. 24 HR Trend......9 degrees warmer...except 2 degrees warmer near the coast. Max Humidity........94-99 percent. 24 HR Trend......15 percent wetter. 20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph shifting to the west after midnight. Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Vent Rate...........Poor (33). Mixing Height.......500 ft agl. Transport Winds.....Northeast 6 to 9 mph. Pcpn Amount......... 0.16- 0.66 in. .TUESDAY... Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Isolated showers and thunderstorms after 1200. Max Temperature.....75-80...except 64-69 near the coast. 24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler. Min Humidity........55-60 percent. 24 HR Trend......31 percent wetter...except 21 percent wetter along the coast. 20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming northwest around 5 mph in the afternoon. Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Vent Rate...........Good (311). Mixing Height.......3600 ft agl. Transport Winds.....North around 6 mph shifting to the south in the afternoon. Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.10 in . .TUESDAY NIGHT... Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (45-55 percent) until 2400, then mostly cloudy (50-60 percent). Chance of rain showers until 2400, then rain showers likely and chance of thunderstorms. Min Temperature.....58-63. 24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer. Max Humidity........90-95 percent. 24 HR Trend......7 percent drier. 20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph in the evening becoming light. Gusts up to 30 mph. Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Vent Rate...........Poor (77). Mixing Height.......600 ft agl. Transport Winds.....Southeast 12 to 18 mph. Pcpn Amount......... 0.06- 0.23 in. .WEDNESDAY... Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Rain showers likely until 1200. Max Temperature.....75-80...except 60-65 near the coast. 24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler. Min Humidity........36-41 percent...except 48-53 percent along the coast. 24 HR Trend......10 percent drier. 20-Foot Winds.......Light winds. Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Vent Rate...........Excellent (1258). Mixing Height.......4200 ft agl. Transport Winds.....Southwest 24 to 30 mph. Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.04 in . $$ MIZ018-024-030-036-042-210815- Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac Counties...including Eastern Huron NF- 258 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 .TONIGHT... Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Numerous rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. Min Temperature.....57-62. 24 HR Trend......12 degrees warmer...except 6 degrees warmer near the coast. Max Humidity........94-99 percent. 24 HR Trend......11 percent wetter. 20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts up to 16 mph. Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Vent Rate...........Poor (39). Mixing Height.......500 ft agl. Transport Winds.....South around 9 mph. Pcpn Amount......... 0.26- 0.66 in. .TUESDAY... Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. Max Temperature.....77-82...except 57-62 near the coast. 24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler. Min Humidity........53-58 percent. 24 HR Trend......27 percent wetter. 20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Vent Rate...........Fair (204). Mixing Height.......2800 ft agl. Transport Winds.....Northwest 6 to 9 mph. Pcpn Amount......... 0.04- 0.15 in. .TUESDAY NIGHT... Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent) until 2400, then mostly cloudy (50-60 percent). Chance of rain showers. Chance of thunderstorms after 2400. Min Temperature.....58-63. 24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler. Max Humidity........90-95 percent...except 81-86 percent along the coast. 24 HR Trend......5 percent drier...except unchanged along the coast. 20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph in the evening becoming light. Gusts up to 25 mph. Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Vent Rate...........Poor (58). Mixing Height.......500 ft agl. Transport Winds.....Southeast 12 to 15 mph. Pcpn Amount......... 0.03- 0.27 in. .WEDNESDAY... Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Max Temperature.....75-80...except around 70 near the coast. 24 HR Trend......Unchanged...except 8 degrees warmer near the coast. Min Humidity........34-39 percent. 24 HR Trend......15 percent drier. 20-Foot Winds.......Light winds. Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Vent Rate...........Excellent (1231). Mixing Height.......4400 ft agl. Transport Winds.....Southwest 21 to 27 mph. Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.03 in . $$ MIZ020-025>027-210815- Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL- 258 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 .TONIGHT... Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Widespread rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. Min Temperature.....54-59. 24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer...except 1 degree warmer near the coast. Max Humidity........95-100 percent. 24 HR Trend......29 percent wetter...except 20 percent wetter along the coast. 20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts up to 16 mph. Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Vent Rate...........Poor (39). Mixing Height.......500 ft agl. Transport Winds.....Southwest around 9 mph shifting to the north after midnight. Pcpn Amount......... 0.15- 0.60 in. .TUESDAY... Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (65-75 percent). Isolated showers and thunderstorms after 1200. Max Temperature.....75-80...except 57-62 near the coast. 24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer. Min Humidity........52-57 percent. 24 HR Trend......25 percent wetter...except 16 percent wetter along the coast. 20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph shifting to the southwest in the afternoon. Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Vent Rate...........Good (300). Mixing Height.......3300 ft agl. Transport Winds.....Northwest around 6 mph shifting to the south in the afternoon. Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.10 in . .TUESDAY NIGHT... Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent) until 2400, then mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Chance of rain showers until 2400, then rain showers likely and chance of thunderstorms. Min Temperature.....57-62. 24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer. Max Humidity........91-96 percent. 24 HR Trend......7 percent drier...except 2 percent drier along the coast. 20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph in the evening becoming light. Gusts up to 30 mph. Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Vent Rate...........Poor (102). Mixing Height.......800 ft agl. Transport Winds.....South 15 to 21 mph. Pcpn Amount......... 0.11- 0.25 in. .WEDNESDAY... Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Rain showers likely until 1200. Max Temperature.....70-75...except around 60 near the coast. 24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler. Min Humidity........41-46 percent. 24 HR Trend......4 percent drier. 20-Foot Winds.......Light winds. Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Vent Rate...........Excellent (1077). Mixing Height.......3900 ft agl. Transport Winds.....Southwest 24 to 30 mph. Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.06 in . $$ MIZ031>033-210815- Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the northern quarter of Manistee NF- 258 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 .TONIGHT... Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Widespread rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. Min Temperature.....54-59. 24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer. Max Humidity........95-100 percent. 24 HR Trend......23 percent wetter...except 11 percent wetter along the coast. 20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts up to 16 mph. Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Vent Rate...........Poor (66). Mixing Height.......600 ft agl. Transport Winds.....Southwest around 9 mph. Pcpn Amount......... 0.24- 0.68 in. .TUESDAY... Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (65-75 percent). Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. Max Temperature.....77-82...except 70-75 near the coast. 24 HR Trend......Unchanged...except 6 degrees warmer near the coast. Min Humidity........52-57 percent. 24 HR Trend......15 percent wetter...except unchanged along the coast. 20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph shifting to the southwest in the afternoon. Gusts up to 20 mph. Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Vent Rate...........Good (447). Mixing Height.......3700 ft agl. Transport Winds.....Northwest around 9 mph shifting to the south in the afternoon. Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.09 in . .TUESDAY NIGHT... Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent) until 2400, then mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Chance of showers until 2400, then showers likely and chance of thunderstorms. Min Temperature.....58-63...except 56-61 near the coast. 24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer. Max Humidity........92-97 percent. 24 HR Trend......6 percent drier. 20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph in the evening becoming light. Gusts up to 30 mph. Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Vent Rate...........Fair (138). Mixing Height.......900 ft agl. Transport Winds.....South 15 to 21 mph. Pcpn Amount......... 0.11- 0.31 in. .WEDNESDAY... Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Rain showers likely until 1200. Max Temperature.....70-75...except 60-65 near the coast. 24 HR Trend......10 degrees cooler. Min Humidity........41-46 percent...except 52-57 percent along the coast. 24 HR Trend......7 percent drier...except 1 percent drier along the coast. 20-Foot Winds.......Light winds. Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Vent Rate...........Excellent (1046). Mixing Height.......4000 ft agl. Transport Winds.....Southwest 24 to 27 mph. Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.07 in . $$ MIZ028-029-034-035-041-210815- Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin Counties...including Western Huron NF- 258 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 .TONIGHT... Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Scattered rain showers until 2400. Isolated thunderstorms. Widespread rain showers after 2400. Min Temperature.....58-63. 24 HR Trend......11 degrees warmer. Max Humidity........94-99 percent. 24 HR Trend......15 percent wetter. 20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts up to 16 mph. Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Vent Rate...........Poor (83). Mixing Height.......900 ft agl. Transport Winds.....Southwest 9 to 12 mph. Pcpn Amount......... 0.48- 0.77 in. .TUESDAY... Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. Max Temperature.....78-83. 24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler. Min Humidity........52-57 percent. 24 HR Trend......25 percent wetter. 20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph . Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Vent Rate...........Good (426). Mixing Height.......4100 ft agl. Transport Winds.....West around 12 mph shifting to the southwest around 9 mph in the afternoon. Pcpn Amount......... 0.05- 0.17 in. .TUESDAY NIGHT... Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent) until 2400, then mostly cloudy (45-55 percent). Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Min Temperature.....61-66. 24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer. Max Humidity........88-93 percent. 24 HR Trend......3 percent drier. 20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph in the evening becoming light. Gusts up to 30 mph. Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Vent Rate...........Poor (94). Mixing Height.......700 ft agl. Transport Winds.....South 12 to 15 mph. Pcpn Amount......... 0.06- 0.27 in. .WEDNESDAY... Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Chance of showers until 1200. Max Temperature.....75-80. 24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler. Min Humidity........36-41 percent. 24 HR Trend......16 percent drier. 20-Foot Winds.......Light winds. Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Vent Rate...........Excellent (1220). Mixing Height.......4400 ft agl. Transport Winds.....Southwest 24 to 27 mph. Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.04 in . $$ .EXTENDED... .THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS AROUND 70. LIGHT WINDS. .FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS AROUND 70. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 50. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .MEMORIAL DAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. $$ NSC