710 FXUS65 KPUB 162020 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 220 PM MDT Thu May 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through this evening, mainly over and near the higher terrain. - Warmer on Friday with highs in the 80s. - Periodic showers and thunderstorms over the mountains through next week with a brief uptick possible across the plains on Tuesday - Increasing winds and fire danger for Sunday and Monday though only Baca County at risk for Fire Weather Headlines due to recent moisture and greenup elsewhere. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 215 PM MDT Thu May 16 2024 Currently...radar shows generally scattered showers and thunderstorms dropping south across the higher terrain. A few storms have also develop down along the New Mexico border. Temperatures are pleasant, with 60s to mid 70s across the region. Winds are mostly light across Colorado. Rest of today and tonight...an upper low is currently track east across central New Mexico heading into western Texas overnight. Meanwhile, a quick moving upper vort max will continue to shift southeast across eastern Colorado this evening, clearing to the southeast by midnight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue into this evening across the higher terrain. An isolated shower and thunderstorm may develop into the I-25 corridor, but coverage will be spotty. All precipitation looks to shift southward, dissipating through midnight, and dry conditions prevailing into Friday morning. Overnight lows will fall into the 40s across the Plains, and 30s over the San Luis Valley. Friday...upper level ridging will spread east across Colorado Friday with quiet weather expected. Temperatures will also be warming up, with highs reaching into the 80s across the Plains. An isolated shower or thunderstorm may be possible over the San Juan Range, but overall confidence in occurrence is low. Mozley && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 215 PM MDT Thu May 16 2024 Passing wave to north will send a cold front through the southeast plains Friday night which will bank up along the eastern slopes for Saturday. Shortwave energy in southwest flow aloft will bring stronger deep layer shear as well as a trigger for thunderstorm development Saturday afternoon and evening, but it appears CAPE will be the limiting factor as dew point return lags behind the front. With southeasterly low level flow, focus for afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be across the Pikes Peak region as well as the central mountains due to the trajectory of shortwave energy. Main risk will be locally heavy rainfall and possibly some small hail over the higher terrain. A more well defined shortwave will move through southwest flow aloft on Sunday which will send the dry line eastward to near the KS border. Given the early day timing, this is likely to scour the moisture out of southeast Colorado leading to a dry breezy day across much of the region. This will bring critical fire weather conditions to much of the region, however with green up occuring and fuels status not receptive to fire for most areas, only Baca county will need to be monitored for potential fire weather highlights. Southwest flow on Monday will keep dry and windy conditions over the area with another potential critical fire weather day across Baca county where fuels are critical. Temperatures will remain above normal. Upper trough drags across CO on Tuesday sending another cold front through the region in the Mon Night/Tues time frame depending on the model. A quick shot of snow will be possible across the higher mountains along with a 10-15 degree drop in temperatures from the day before for the remainder of the area. Dew points behind the front quickly dry out so at least for now it doesn't appear to be much risk for strong thunderstorm development even though a quick shot of showers/thunderstorms behind the front will be possible. The pattern remains active through the mid to latter part of next week with yet another system crossing the northern U.S. Rockies on Thursday. Wednesday looks like another dry and breezy day across southern CO with some showers possible across the central mountains on Thursday depending on how amplified the upper trough is as it crosses the mountains. NBM is pretty muted with this scenario for now but as it is out in day 8 will not deviate from the model blends. -KT && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 215 PM MDT Thu May 16 2024 VFR conditions at all three terminals through the next 24 hours. Isolated showers and thunderstorms may be possible at KALS and KCOS into this evening, but they will be hit and miss and likely not impact the terminal. Briefly reduced VIS and CIGS will accompany any storms that move across KCOS and KALS. Mozley && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MOZLEY LONG TERM...KT AVIATION...MOZLEY