509 FXUS65 KPSR 161206 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 506 AM MST Thu May 16 2024 .UPDATE...Updated 12Z Aviation Discussion. && .SYNOPSIS... Above normal temperatures will continue through the weekend with lower desert highs warming a few more degrees before peaking at just over 100 degrees on Friday and Saturday. Isolated shower and thunderstorm activity can be expected again today over the eastern Arizona high country, which could cause some erratic gusty winds reaching the lower deserts of south-central Arizona. A slight cooling trend and continued dry conditions are forecast for the first half of next week with temperatures likely falling back to near normal. && .DISCUSSION... A weak upper level trough moving through the region continues to bring slightly elevated moisture levels and scattered high based showers. The convection is currently ongoing, but has become solely elevated in nature and it is doubtful anything other than sprinkles are reaching the ground across south-central Arizona. These mainly virga showers may continue through the rest of the morning hours as indicated by the CAMs, but they should have no impact. By this afternoon, the last lingering vort center is forecast to track southward across south-central Arizona which should provide enough lift for some additional daytime high based showers and isolated thunderstorms focused over the high terrain northeast and east of the Phoenix area. A north northwesterly steering flow should keep any of this activity east of Phoenix, but the HREF continues to show potential for gusty outflow winds attempting to reach as far west as Phoenix. The only area that shows any realistic rain chances is across the higher terrain of eastern Gila Co. where PoPs range from 15-25%. Farther to the west, upper level ridging will already begin moving into southern California and western Arizona today. This should allow for daytime highs to reach near 100 degrees across portions of southeast California this afternoon. For Friday and Saturday, the upper level ridge with H5 heights ranging from 581-585dm will move over the Desert Southwest. Heights of this magnitude are not unusual for mid May as they still fall below the 90th percentile of climatology, but it will be enough to push daytime highs between 6-8 degrees above normal. Forecast highs across the lower deserts for Friday and Saturday are mostly in the upper 90s to the lower 100s, while overnight lows range from the mid 60s over rural desert areas to as warm as the mid 70s in central Phoenix. Both Friday and Saturday show areas of Moderate HeatRisk, mainly centered across the Lower CO River Valley, the Imperial Valley, and across Phoenix. By later Sunday into Monday, ensemble guidance remains in good agreement showing another decaying upper level low approaching northern Baja, while a larger upper level trough digs southward through the Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin. Both dry systems are expected to continue to weaken as they move into the Desert Southwest later on Monday into Tuesday, but they will help to lower temperatures back to around normal with highs as low as the low to mid 90s on Tuesday. A progressive wave pattern then shows multiple shortwaves impacting the Northwestern U.S. through the latter half of next week which should keep broad troughing over our region and any stronger ridging to our south. This weather pattern is likely to keep temperatures at or just above normal through the end of next week with seasonably dry conditions persisting. && .AVIATION...Updated at 1203Z. South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: Easterly winds will switch back westerly late this morning, with some occasional wind gusts around 15-20 kt possible this afternoon. Some Hi-Res models are hinting at some very light shower/virga developing around the PHX Metro later this morning, which could generate some gusty and erratic winds. Isolated shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to fire up in the higher terrain to the north and east, however this activity is expected to stay out of the PHX Metro. The chance of any outflows reaching the PHX Metro are not as good as they were yesterday and Hi-Res model guidance is not indicating any outflows reaching the Metro, therefore there is no mention of them in the TAFs. Winds are then expected to go back easterly during the overnight hours. FEW-SCT mid/high clouds may become BKN at times this afternoon before clearing out during the overnight hours. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Winds at KIPL will favor the west throughout the TAF period with extended periods of light and variable winds. At KBLH, directions will vary between the N and S, becoming light and variable at times. Winds may gust into the teens at times this evening at both terminals. Skies will be mostly clear through the TAF period. && .FIRE WEATHER... A weak weather system passing through Arizona today will again bring high based showers and isolated thunderstorms over higher terrain areas, mainly across eastern Arizona. The main potential impact is expected to be gusty erratic outflow winds which could extend as far west as the Phoenix area. Otherwise, look for continued hot temperatures, afternoon breeziness and MinRHs around 15% over the lower deserts to 20-30% over Gila Co. Drier conditions will filter in starting Friday ending any rain chances and lowering MinRHs closer to 10% over the lower deserts. The combination of dry fine fuels, continued above normal temperatures, low RHs, and afternoon breezes could create elevated fire danger conditions into early next week. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kuhlman AVIATION...Berislavich/Smith FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman