063 
FXUS65 KPIH 160804
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
204 AM MDT Thu May 16 2024

.SHORT TERM...Today through Friday.

Main concern in the short term involves wind. A cold front arrives 
on Friday. We'll start to see winds increase today with gusts likely 
(about 70% chance) to exceed lake wind advisory levels (20 mph 
sustained) for the American Falls Reservoir. However, the guidance 
does show that we may not see those peak winds until late afternoon 
(after 20z). Winds are even stronger on Friday with a 75% chance of 
reaching high wind gusts, especially across the upper Snake Plain. 
Closer to Pocatello, those numbers fall to around 60% chance. In 
terms of wind advisory gusts, seeing a 60% chances extending back to 
Shoshone and around Burley eastward. Current set of products look 
reasonable with lake wind advisory in effect for today and high wind 
watch in effect for upper and lower Snake Plain for Friday.

There doesn't seem to be much precipitation with this system as the 
front is working with a good deal of dry air. Temperatures today 
expected to be in the mid and upper 70s across the Snake Plain and 
Magic Valley. Temps fall to more seasonable levels on Friday, 
generally around 70 across the Snake Plain and Magic Valley. 

13

.LONG TERM...Saturday through next Thursday.

Saturday looks reasonably dry across the region as we are in between 
systems. Winds look much lighter as well although there could still 
be some gusts of 40 to 45 mph out across the Arco Desert. Sunday 
looks windy once again as another front arrives. Right now there is 
a 50% chance that we will at least meet wind advisory levels (gusts 
to 45 mph) in the lower and upper Snake Plain. Precipitation chances 
still aren't overly impressive as we're still dealing with a good 
deal of dry air. That starts to change on Monday somewhat as the 
upper low associated with the front passes through east Idaho. 
Chances for precipitation are highest across the eastern highlands 
where a 30 to 40 percent chance of precipitation exists. QPF amounts 
still look to be 0.10 inches or less. 

Tuesday looks mainly dry but about 60-70% of models show a closed 
upper low moving into the Pacific Northwest for mid to late week. 
Main differences seem to involve how deep the low is which will 
determine the track of that system along with how much precipitation 
we may see. 

Temperatures in the low term start seasonable, but turn at least 
slightly below normal as we see a parade of systems moving through 
the region.

13

&&

.AVIATION...TAFs are mainly wind dependent with gusts to around 25 
kts likely at Snake Plain sites. Winds expected to switch to 
upvalley for a couple hours early this afternoon at KSUN but then 
becoming more west-southwesterly from mid to late afternoon with 
some gusts of 20-25kts possible. Ceilings should remain vfr with 
mainly mid to high level clouds drifting through.

13

&&

.HYDROLOGY...A flood warning continues for the Portneuf river in
Pocatello. The flood warning for the Blackfoot river near Shelley 
was cancelled as flows have decreased due to cooler temperatures and 
a diminishing snowpack. A flood advisory continues along the 
Portneuf river at Topaz. Water levels are slowly receding for the 
Portneuf river due to the snowpack diminishing. Water levels for 
other rivers, including the Big Wood, Big Lost, Henrys Fork, Teton, 
and Snake, are slowly climbing due to snowmelt, but all rivers look 
to remain below action stage with current forecasts. Wyatt/13

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for 
IDZ052>054.

&&

$$