278 FXUS65 KMSO 151916 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 116 PM MDT Wed May 15 2024 .DISCUSSION...Recent model trends are showing increased agreement for a trough to move in on Thursday and deepen over central Idaho and western Montana by Friday. On Thursday, expect a ridge flattening which will bring another day of above-average temperatures. However, it'll also strengthen the westerly and southwesterly pressure gradient, leading to gusty winds. Most areas have a 70-90% chance of gusts over 35 mph. Wind advisories have been issued for the Flathead/Mission and Missoula/Bitterroot valleys Thursday afternoon, with winds expected to ease up by evening, remaining breezy overnight. Friday brings cooler temperatures and increased shower chances as a cold front passes and the trough arrives. Breezy conditions kick off the day and are forecast to intensify with the frontal passage. Expect common 35-40 mph wind gusts, with west-central and southwest Montana having a 60-80% chance of gusts over 40 mph, possibly prompting more wind advisories. After a brief return to average temperatures on Saturday, Sunday looks cooler again, with models converging on a trough dominating the region. There's a 30-50% chance of a wet closed low between Monday and Wednesday within the model clusters. && .AVIATION...This afternoon's satellite loops show fair weather cumulus clouds forming over the terrain, while high cloud cover moves in from the northwest. As mixing continues into the evening, expect winds of 10-20 knots to remain common. Looking ahead to Thursday, the ridge of high pressure is expected to flatten, leading to a tightening pressure gradient. This will increase the likelihood of wind gusts exceeding 30 knots in the afternoon, with a 70-90% chance. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Thursday for Flathead/Mission Valleys. Wind Advisory from 2 PM to 8 PM MDT Thursday for Missoula/Bitterroot Valleys. ID...None. && $$