275 FXUS65 KFGZ 162002 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 102 PM MST Thu May 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms will stick around today. Warmer and drier weather looks to return Friday through the weekend, with winds gradually increasing each afternoon. Unsettled weather likely to return next week. && .DISCUSSION...Through Tonight...As a shortwave departs Arizona today, one last round of showers and thunderstorms is expected for today. Showers and thunderstorms have already begun to develop mainly over the higher terrain to the east of a Crown King to Happy Jack to Ganado line. Coverage should continue to increase over the higher terrain of central and eastern Arizona through the afternoon, then moving north to south off the terrain. Given the flow, the most likely areas to see some showers look to be the Bradshaw Mountains eastward across the Mogollon Rim and into the White Mountains. Additional activity is expected over the Chuska Mountains as well. With PWAT largely 0.30-0.50 inches across the area, coverage should be mainly isolated. Additionally, with dry air in the lower levels, the main threats from any storm should be just gusty, erratic outflow winds and lightning. Coverage should begin to decrease later this evening, with only a couple lingering showers expected near the White Mountains through midnight. Friday through Sunday...Drier conditions begin to set in as high pressure builds back into Arizona. Temperatures will remain around 5 deg F above normal through the weekend. Winds will gradually increase from the southwest, with afternoon breezes around 25-35 mph. Monday through Wednesday...A cut-off low off the California Coast begins to make an approach at the start of next week. Much stronger winds ensue on Monday as the low moves into Arizona and looks to phase with a secondary trough moving through the Pacific Northwest. Model soundings indicate that winds in excess of 35-45 mph are probable along and downwind of the higher terrain. The gusty winds combined with a dry air mass in place could potentially lead to critical fire weather conditions come Monday. As of now, gusty winds and cooler temperatures look to be the only sensible weather impacts as moisture looks to be to scarce for any mentionable precipitation chances. Behind the low, zonal flow looks to set in for the middle of next week. Breezy winds, dry conditions, and near-normal temperatures look to remain. && .AVIATION...Thursday 16/18Z through Friday 17/18Z...Mainly VFR expected with W-NW winds 10-20 kts. ISO-SCT SHRA/TSRA mainly along and south of KFLG-KRQE line. Brief MVFR conditions possible in any stronger storms that develop. Erratic outflow wind gust up to 40 mph in/near shower activity. Shower activity ends by 03Z with light winds expected overnight. OUTLOOK...Friday 17/18Z through Sunday 19/18Z...VFR conditions expected with W-SW winds 10-20 kts in the afternoons. && .FIRE WEATHER...Tonight through Saturday...Showers and thunderstorms across eastern Arizona will dissipate after sunset. Erratic outflow winds up to 40 mph possible in or near showers and storms. Dry conditions return for Friday and Saturday. South to west winds 10-20 mph with afternoon RH values between 10-20%. Sunday through Tuesday...Warm and dry conditions will continue through the start of the week. Southwest to west winds 15-25 mph gusting to 30-35 mph Sunday, increasing to 25-35 mph gusting to 35- 45 mph on Monday, then decreasing on Tuesday. Afternoon RH values will range between 5-15% each day. Near critical fire weather concerns, especially across eastern Arizona, on Monday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Humphreys AVIATION...Meola FIRE WEATHER...Meola For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff