239 FXUS65 KBOU 161628 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 1028 AM MDT Thu May 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Gorgeous weather conditions today. - Much warmer and drier Friday and through this weekend, with spottier precipitation chances confined to the high country. - Breezier Sunday into Monday with localized fire weather concerns possible depending on fuel conditions. - Cooler and potentially more unsettled Monday/Tuesday with increasing precipitation changes region-wide. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1028 AM MDT Thu May 16 2024 Quiet pleasant day on track with highs climbing into the mid to upper 70s across northeast Colorado. Just a slight chance for a weak shower/storm over the higher terrain south of I-70 this afternoon and evening. Removed the slight chance for showers/storms over the higher terrain to the north of I-70. && .SHORT TERM /Through tonight/... Issued at 330 AM MDT Thu May 16 2024 Water vapor imagery shows dry air pushing into our forecast area from the northwest. This has led to the end of the rain showers in our area and clouds are slowly dissipating. Ridging will continue to move over Colorado today with subsident flow. It will turn into an absolutely gorgeous day today. There will be mostly sunny skies, light winds, and seasonal temperatures. Highs across the plains will be in the 70s. A stray shower or weak storm cannot be ruled out over Park County and the southern foothills. There are no weather concerns today. && .LONG TERM /Friday through Wednesday/... Issued at 330 AM MDT Thu May 16 2024 Strong warm advection will push 700mb temperatures to near 11-12C on Friday as we transition to largely zonal flow aloft. In combination with limited daytime cloud cover and subsident flow off the Front Range, it's no surprise temperatures will continue their rapid rise, and highs will top out well into the 80's for all of the lower elevations. The mountains won't be immune to the warming either, with 60's or even some 70's for many higher elevation communities, well above normal for the date. The area will stay dry with mostly scattered mid-level clouds across the high country. A speedy shortwave trough will march across the northern plains states Saturday, but it looks to remain far enough north to limit its impact on our region. We'll see some locally breezy conditions in the high country, some slight moderation of temperatures behind a weak cool front (though they'll remain above average), and a minor uptick in shower chances in the afternoon, more notably for the higher terrain. By Sunday, a broad and positively-tilted trough will start to experience some amplification to our west, with strengthening southwesterly flow aloft as the polar and subtropical jets begin to merge over the Four Corners. 700mb temperatures will hold steady or increase slightly, and under subsident flow, high temperatures are favored to once again rise well into the 80's across the plains and urban corridor. Under a well-mixed environment, winds aloft will mix down to the surface more efficiently, so breezy conditions will be more widespread across our forecast area, extending from the high country into the plains. This could translate into elevated fire weather conditions for some areas, but for most locations the significant green-up experienced during the past couple of weeks will serve to buffer the fire danger. Depending on the speed of the approaching trough, these breezy and dry conditions may fold over into Monday as well. Isolated afternoon showers/thunderstorms may still surface for some of the higher elevations Sunday, but most of the area looks to remain dry. The pattern is then slated to turn a little more unsettled and also knock our temperatures back closer to or below seasonal normals MOnday into Tuesday, as the trough pushes east across Colorado. Precipitation chances will nudge upward for all areas Monday, (although are not a guarantee given the somewhat progressive nature of the trough), and may extend into Tuesday depending on exact timing of the system. A zonal or weak ridging pattern looks to resume thereafter with drying/warming favored, but those details are highly fuzzy this far out. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday/... Issued at 520 AM MDT Thu May 16 2024 VFR conditions expected throughout the period. The usual diurnal wind pattern will exist with northeast winds this afternoon followed by southeast winds in the evening and southwest drainage overnight. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Meier SHORT TERM...Danielson LONG TERM...Rodriguez AVIATION...Danielson