873 FXUS65 KBOI 162033 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 233 PM MDT Thu May 16 2024 .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday night...A dry cold front associated with an upper trough in western WA/OR this afternoon will move across SE Oregon this evening and SW Idaho late tonight. The winds are not expected to be very strong along its passage with gusts only to around 30 mph. However, the post- frontal winds ramp up during the later morning that persist through the afternoon and early evening, especially east of Boise where a Wind Advisory has been issued. Sustained winds of 25-35 mph with gusts to around 50 mph develop by late morning from near Mountain Home east to Fairfield, Jerome, and Twin Falls areas. The pressure gradient relaxes later in the evening which will allow the winds to diminish by late evening. Models are in agreement that the moisture associated with the trough remains to our north, but there is a 15 to 30 percent chance of showers north of McCall. Temperatures will be 10 to 20 degrees cooler with highs generally in the 50s higher elevations and 60s lower elevations. Dry and warmer conditions are expected on Saturday ahead of the next 'dry' cold front that is due to arrive Saturday night. Breezy conditions will continue on Saturday and with the passage of the cold front Saturday night. .LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...An upper level trough will move through the area on Sunday. The core of the trough will remain to our north, but a cold front will cool temperatures around 10 degrees from Saturday. A 20-50% chance of showers will develop across the central Idaho mountains, but dry conditions are expected elsewhere. Snow levels 4500-5500 feet may allow for a dusting of snow on mountain peaks. The trough will also bring breezy conditions, with gusts 25-40 mph. Gradual warming is expected Monday and Tuesday as the trough gradually exits the area. An upper level low will move into the Pacific Northwest Wednesday and Thursday, bringing our next chance of precipitation to the entire area. There is still uncertainty in the track of the low, which will determine which areas see significant precipitation. Precipitation chances increase Tuesday night through Wednesday as the low approaches and peak on Thursday, with a 20-60% chance in all areas. Snow levels are expected to drop to 4000-6000 feet as the low center moves overhead, with potential for late-season light mountain snow. Cooler temperatures and breezy winds are also expected as the low moves inland. && .AVIATION...VFR and mostly clear. Local visibility reduction from smoke near prescribed fires, especially in the southwest Idaho mountains. Surface winds: W to NW 5-15 kt with local gusts to 25 kt. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W 15-25 kt, increasing to 25-40 kt after 06Z/Fri. KBOI...VFR. A few high clouds and some hazy skies near the foothills due to smoke from prescribed burns in the Boise Mountains. Surface winds: NW 5-10 kt. Weekend Outlook...Isolated showers along a cold front in the central ID mtns Friday morning. Otherwise, VFR and mostly clear through Saturday, becoming partly cloudy Sunday. Chance (20-50%) of showers in the central ID mtns on Sunday. Snow levels 4500-5500 ft MSL. Surface winds very breezy on Friday W-NW 15-25 kt with gusts 25-40 kt, and again on Sunday W-NW 10-20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM MDT Friday IDZ014-016-028-030. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.twitter.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...BW LONG TERM....ST AVIATION.....ST