558 FXUS64 KSJT 160803 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 303 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 ...New LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 225 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024 ...Isolated severe thunderstorms possible through tonight, then isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms again on Thursday under a Slight Risk... Weak ridging aloft will continue to track east across West Central Texas with persistent breezy south to southeasterly flow remaining in place through Thursday morning. SPC continues to carry a Marginal Risk for isolated thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening across much of the area, with the more favorable conditions being across the Big Country. Damaging winds and large hail will remain the primary impacts for any storms that do turn severe this evening. Shower and thunderstorm coverage will increase overnight for the northern half of the area, as the LLJ picks up again and the surface low begins to track eastward across the area through Thursday afternoon. Winds will shift generally to the north with the passage of the next cold front Thursday. A dryline is expected to set up across the Trans Pecos Thursday, where we could see come convective initiation within the warm sector, mainly along and south of the I-20 corridor. Ample low-level moisture, coinciding with steepening lapse rates/increased instability and some good deep-layer shear across these areas seem to hold the highest potential for severe thunderstorm development on Thursday, where SPC currently has these areas covered by a Slight Risk. Timing-wise, we are expecting showers and isolated thunderstorms across the northern and eastern potions of West Central Texas tomorrow morning and early afternoon, with a enough of a break during peak heating to obtain enough surface heating for another round of isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing during the afternoon and evening hours Thursday. The main hazard remains very large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes with any of these storms that become severe through Thursday evening. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 302 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Expect hot and dry weather this weekend through much of next week as a sub-tropical ridge builds across the area along with an 850 MB thermal ridge just west of our area. Highs will be in the upper 90s to around 103 mainly across the Concho Valley, Northern Edwards Plateau and Northwest Hill Country. Slightly cooler temperatures are possible next Wednesday and Thursday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1236 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Current conditions are VFR at all sites. Low clouds can be seen moving northward toward the area in satellite imagery, and have generally kept the timing inherited on MVFR ceilings moving into our southern sites tonight. Could see some IFR conditions as well at KSOA and KJCT. Thunderstorms are still a question for Thursday. Some high resolution models continue to develop storms between 11Z and 12Z north of I-20 that spread southward affecting most sites by 00Z, and most of the activity out of the area by 04Z tomorrow night. Any storms that develop will have the potential to produce hail, as well as gusty and erratic winds. However, timing and extent of coverage of any storms that develop is still uncertain. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 76 60 81 63 / 80 50 20 10 San Angelo 86 60 88 63 / 60 30 10 0 Junction 92 64 92 64 / 50 10 10 0 Brownwood 76 61 82 62 / 90 40 10 10 Sweetwater 76 58 81 64 / 80 50 20 0 Ozona 92 60 88 62 / 20 20 0 0 Brady 81 62 83 63 / 80 30 10 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TP LONG TERM....21 AVIATION...20