955 FXUS64 KSHV 160240 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 940 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 914 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024 A quiet night is in store for the Four State Region tonight with no changes needed to the current forecast. Surface high pressure centered over the region earlier today is shifting E/SE towards the Gulf this evening, with a more active pattern developing to the west across the TX panhandle as SW flow becomes better established aloft. Dry conditions are expected through tonight, with cloud cover increasing and low temps dropping into the low 60s across SE OK and SW AR and mid to upper 60s elsewhere. Rain chances to quickly return to the forecast later Thursday morning, with the potential for heavy rain and a few strong to severe storms. The previous discussion highlights this in better detail and can be referenced below: Kovacik && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 247 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024 High pressure at the sfc is centered directly across the heart of the region this afternoon, providing for light and variable winds and very warm temperatures from the mid 80s to lower 90s. With the exception of some thin high clouds, mostly sunny skies continue to dominate and help to propel the very warm afternoon temperatures. As the evening and overnight progresses, look for additional cloud cover to expand into the region from the west due to moistening W to SW flow aloft. Meanwhile, the sfc high will shift farther east and allow for a light S/SE flow to prevail. As a result, overnight low temperatures will be a bit warmer compared to last night with a range of 60s areawide. By daybreak on Thursday, an advancing upper-level trough will be ejecting from the Desert SW toward the TX Big Bend country with showers and thunderstorms increasing across much of TX. Expect this convection to rapidly expand eastward into our region by the afternoon and especially into Thursday evening/overnight through Friday morning along an advancing lead shortwave. Some additional shower and thunderstorm activity will likely follow through Friday afternoon and evening as the primary trough axis pivots overhead. This could bring as much as 2-4 inches of total event rainfall to areas mainly south of Interstate 20, prompting the issuance of a Flood Watch for areas generally along and south of Jacksonville, TX to Monroe, LA from Thursday afternoon through Friday evening. In addition, isolated strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out through this timeframe with damaging wind gusts as the primary threat. /19/ && .LONG TERM... (Friday Night through next Tuesday) Issued at 247 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024 As the trough axis gradually shifts east of the region during the day on Saturday, any lingering light rain should rapidly come to an end with dry weather expected to prevail through the remainder of the weekend into early next week. An upper-level ridge will be expanding across much of the southern CONUS and push temperatures even higher into the upper 80s and lower 90s from Saturday through the remainder of the extended period early next week. In fact, mid 90s cannot entirely be ruled out by the early to middle part of next week with an unseasonably strong upper-level ridge building NE from old Mexico into the South Central and SE CONUS. As a result, rain chances will be quite slim to none with a welcome opportunity to dry out after a fairly wet period during the first half of May. Unfortunately, we could also be looking at heat indices surging above 100 degrees with these temperatures combined with the increasing humidity from southerly flow. /19/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 526 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024 For the 16/00Z TAF update, VFR vis/cigs are expected to continue through most of the period until 16/20Z as VCTS/SHRA begins to enter NE Texas airspace and affect western terminals with MVFR vis/cigs or lower through the end of the period. Light southeasterly winds will also prevail through the period. /16/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 68 87 68 83 / 0 50 90 30 MLU 63 88 65 83 / 0 20 90 50 DEQ 62 83 63 81 / 0 20 70 50 TXK 64 86 66 83 / 0 20 80 40 ELD 62 87 64 82 / 0 10 80 50 TYR 68 83 67 83 / 0 70 70 20 GGG 67 84 66 83 / 0 70 80 20 LFK 68 84 67 85 / 10 90 80 30 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday evening for LAZ010>014-017>022. OK...None. TX...Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday evening for TXZ149>153-165>167. && $$ SHORT TERM...19 LONG TERM....19 AVIATION...16