311 FXUS64 KOUN 161127 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 627 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1251 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 A complicated and very-high-uncertainty forecast is expected over the next 24 hours. The bottom line: the overall risk for severe weather/flooding after daybreak looks to be a little bit lower than it did earlier. "Lower" risk does not mean zero risk, so interests should remain aware of the forecast, but hopefully we won't have too much to deal with. As of the time of this writing (late Wednesday evening/early Friday morning), we are in a relative lull between rounds of storms. Some lingering convection is noted across north central Oklahoma, while regional radar shows the next round getting underway across West Texas. Real-time HRRR analysis shows a reservoir of about 1,500 J/kg of elevated CAPE largely rooted above 700 mb, but most of it is in a long, "skinny" CAPE profile. The potential for damaging winds will exist, as well as the risk for severe hail. With time, this threat may transition to hydro closer to the Red River. And with that... we may not see a whole lot of redevelopment this afternoon. Recent CAM guidance has indicated a potential warm-sector- sweeping MCS this morning across central Texas, and the boundary will certainly be accelerated further by that occurrence. The likeliest spot for storm redevelopment this afternoon may actually end up being northern Oklahoma further from the MCS's subsidence and where temperatures may be cooler aloft. Little in the way of severe threat is expected. The greatest severe threat will be from morning through early afternoon in western north Texas as the MCS/redevelopment attempts to sneak back into the area, but this seems unlikely. We will probably see some lingering showers overnight with a cutoff low hanging out over the upper Red River Valley. Otherwise, today and tonight will remain on the cool and cloudy side of things. Meister && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 1251 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 The cutoff low will remain overhead during the day on Friday, but will get sheared out over the course of the day. Low precipitation chances exist but no impacts are expected. Otherwise, prepare for another day with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s and another night with lows near 60. The pattern finally changes a bit over the weekend, as ridging builds in on Saturday. Highs will soar into the upper 80s to low 90s, and with the amount of rain we've seen in recent weeks expect this to be a steamy heat. Some midlevel flow returns on Sunday, but the jet looks to be displaced to our north across Kansas. Therefore, temperatures should remain on the warmer end. Sufficient flow and moisture may exist for storm chances on Sunday (EPS ensemble probabilities of precip are in the 30-40 percent range out west). The better chance will probably be across northern Oklahoma on Monday. Beyond that, there is a signal for the jet to come back across our area and intersect with some instability through the middle of the week, but predictability is too low at this range to speculate on the nature of any chances for active weather. Meister && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 627 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Several aviation concerns will occur over the next 24 hours. To begin with, storms are ongoing across parts of central Oklahoma and western north Texas. These will have the risk of lightning, reduced visibility, and reduced ceilings. Later today, MVFR ceilings and another possible round of storms will occur across southern Oklahoma and western north Texas. Late tonight, we will have to watch for the potential for fog to develop with calm winds and very high moisture content. Even without fog, southern and central parts of our area should see ceilings drop into the MVFR/IFR range. Meister && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 77 61 76 61 / 70 50 40 10 Hobart OK 76 59 79 59 / 80 50 30 0 Wichita Falls TX 75 62 78 62 / 70 60 30 10 Gage OK 75 54 81 57 / 30 20 10 0 Ponca City OK 77 60 78 59 / 60 40 30 0 Durant OK 80 63 80 62 / 50 70 40 20 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....04 AVIATION...04