746 
FXUS64 KOHX 162322
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
622 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Friday)
Issued at 1126 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

KOHX radar is getting a break today with only some Cu and cirrus 
around this morning. Breaks in the clouds are expected to become 
more numerous this afternoon. Rain and storm chances will return 
tonight as upper ridging moves east and is replaced with 
southwesterly flow. Showers and storms will move in close to dawn.
There should be a break in the showers and storms in the morning 
with a chance of more showers of storms in the afternoon and into 
the overnight hours as a broad trough moves toward the area. As 
far as severe potential on Friday, the potential looks low with 
marginal shear and CAPE values less than 500 J/kg. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1126 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

The trough will slow its eastward progress Friday night with the 
troughing influences lingering on Saturday with more showers and a
storm or two. With the clouds and showers, highs on Saturday
should stay in the 70s across the the area. The trough axis will 
move east Saturday night with northerly flow on Sunday. A couple 
of sprinkles are possible on Sunday mainly along the plateau. 
Upper ridging will build in from the west Sunday night with 
southerly return flow on Monday and Tuesday. With that, 
temperatures will warm well into the 80s on Monday and Tuesday, 
and we have the potential of touching 90 for the first time this 
year on Tuesday. A cold front will approach Tuesday night or 
Wednesday with showers and storms. Behind the front, temperatures 
will be slightly cooler.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

VFR conditions expected for the first half of this TAF cycle,
then showers and thunderstorms will move into the area tomorrow
morning. This should bring MVFR, then IFR cigs to all terminals. 
Minimally IFR is expected through tomorrow night once it arrives.

Winds will be light and mainly southeasterly.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      65  77  64  79 /  30  80  70  80 
Clarksville    64  74  63  78 /  40  80  70  70 
Crossville     58  72  60  74 /  10  80  70  90 
Columbia       63  74  63  78 /  30  80  70  80 
Cookeville     61  73  61  74 /  10  80  70  90 
Jamestown      58  73  60  74 /  10  80  80  90 
Lawrenceburg   64  74  63  77 /  20  80  60  80 
Murfreesboro   63  76  63  78 /  20  80  70  80 
Waverly        63  73  63  76 /  40  80  60  80 

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Reagan
LONG TERM....Reagan
AVIATION.....Unger