998 FXUS64 KMEG 161149 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 649 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 315 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Showers and thunderstorms will return to east Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel this afternoon and overspread all of the Midsouth overnight. Showers and thunderstorms will continue Friday and Saturday with dry conditions returning Sunday. One to two inches of rain is expected. Warm and dry conditions return Sunday and continue into early next week. High temperatures early next week could climb into the low 90s. Showery conditions are expected to return by midweek. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 315 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 A weak ridge is currently shifting across the Midsouth with weak surface high pressure centered along or just east of the Mississippi River. Both of these features will shift east over the next 12-18 hours, becoming centered over east TN and the Alabama-Georgia state line this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will return to east Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel this afternoon and overspread all of the Midsouth overnight. Out west an open wave southern stream trough will shift out of the Four-Corners Area into West Texas Oklahoma and Kansas. This pattern will set up southwest flow across most of the Mississippi River Valley with a 100-110kt subtropical jet becoming oriented from southwest Texas, across the ArkLaTex into the Midsouth by Friday morning. Dew points will climb in the middle to upper 60s by Friday afternoon, but cooler temperatures, clouds and ongoing precipitation will limit our instability. CAPE should struggle to exceed 800 J/kg. Dynamic support is not expected to be very impressive either featuring 03-kt SRH generally below 150m^2/s^2. Any significant LLJ is non existent. However, 700-500mb Lapse rates up to 8.5C/km could support some large hail. Most of the Midsouth should remain north of a warm front until well after sunset with a cold front quickly moving across the region overnight. As a result, thunderstorms should remain elevated resulting in the main threat of large hail and possibly some damaging wind. The higher severe threat should remain well to our south. Convective parameters weaken overnight, limiting the severe threat, but storms featuring frequent lightning will likely continue through the night. Post frontal showers and a few general thunderstorms will continue Saturday, ending overnight. NBM probabilistic QPF guidance through Friday afternoon shows about a 25-35% chance of 1 inch or greater rainfall across most of the Midsouth but about a 40-50 percent chance south of a line from Tupelo to Clarksdale, MS. Expect a quick warming trend Sunday into next week. High temperatures Monday and Tuesday may climb into the low 90s across a large portion of the Midsouth. Tupelo, MS reached 90 degrees May 9th of this year, but the last time multiple climate sites in the Midsouth (Tupelo, MS, NWS Memphis, Memphis International, Jackson, TN and Jonesboro, AR) reached 90 degrees was around October 3rd of 2023. That run looks increasingly likely to end early next week. Most of the Midsouth should be about 3-5 degrees below record highs early next week. At Memphis, NBM's probabilistic max temperature guidance on Monday ranges from a highest reasonable temperature of 95 degrees to a lowest reasonable temperature of 88. We have increased our forecast to 90 degrees. Mostly dry conditions are expected Sunday and Monday. Our next chance of showers and thunderstorms returns late Tuesday and continue through midweek. 30/Sirmon && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 645 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Patchy fog looks to remain at MKL/TUP over the next few hours before lifting as winds increase. Light southern/variable winds will remain across all terminals through the TAF period. The main story this TAF issuance is the timing and movement of TSRA at each terminal. -TSRA looks to begin spreading west to east at around 02Z, reducing vsbys with its movement. TEMPOs/PROB30s were added around midnight through the early morning hours to account for a heavier swath of expected TSRA. -SHRA looks to move in behind this heavier TSRA tomorrow morning. VFR conditions are expected to remain through around midnight when ceilings look to quickly lower to MVFR and eventual IFR. AEH && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM AVIATION...AEH